Wimbledon 2015 Women's Finals: Muguruza vs. Williams Preview and Prediction
The 2015 Wimbledon final between Serena Williams and Garbine Muguruza matches the student against her teacher.
However, unlike in a traditional mentor/mentee relationship, the pupil, Muguruza, is a self-taught Williams aficionado. The 21-year-old Spaniard claims to have watched 100 videos of Williams as a child, analyzing her idol's matches to glean, "What would Serena do?"
After defeating Williams in the 2014 French Open, Muguruza told the New York Times that studying her idol helped her win the match.
“Since I was a child, I thought, oh, I want to play against Serena on center court. And today was the day, and I think I did very good. So when you watch someone play, you know exactly what you need to do to defeat her."
In the semifinals, Muguruza defeated Agnieszka Radwanska, runner-up at the 2012 Wimbledon final, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3. Williams beat Maria Sharapova for the 17th consecutive time to set up what is sure to be a hard-hitting final.
Has the student learned enough to stop Williams from winning her 21st Grand Slam? Or will Williams teach the pupil a lesson in championship pedigree?
School will be in session on Saturday on Centre Court at All England Club.
Muguruza will move into the Top 10 for the first time on Monday. Since bursting onto the scene with an upset win over Williams at the 2014 French Open, Muguruza has made a steady climb up the rankings.
Who Has the Historic Edge?
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Williams leads the head-to-head series 2-1. They last met in the fourth round of the Australian Open, which Williams took 2-6, 6-3, 6-2.
Muguruza shocked Williams in the second round of the 2014 French Open, 6-2, 6-2 in just 64 minutes. It was Williams' worst loss in a Grand Slam.
Muguruza's convincing win earned Williams' respect. After her loss to Muguruza last year, Williams tweeted : "Congrats 2 my opponent today. She did her thing. I'm proud of her. I wish her well. Until next time. There's always tomm & I will be ready."
How Muguruza Has Looked so Far
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In the semifinals, Muguruza ran away with the the first set behind powerful groundstrokes. She took a 6-2, 3-1 lead before Radwanska, using her crafty shot selection, mounted a comeback to take the second set 6-3.
Radwanska grabbed the momentum as Muguruza appeared to get tight and made more unforced errors. Muguruza regained her form in the third set and powered her way to her first Grand Slam final.
Tracy Austin told BBC Sport that she was impressed with Muguruza's ability to bounce back in the third. "I was almost more impressed that Muguruza lost the lead and then recovered, that's a really good sign of maturity. At 21, I think she's such a major star to come."
The hard-hitting Spaniard had no easy route to the finals, facing accomplished veterans every round. She opened up her campaign against American Varvara Lepchenko, who she handled in straight sets. She then faced the resurgent Mirjana Lucic-Baroni in the second round, Angelique Kerber in the third round, Caroline Wozniacki in the fourth and No. 15 Timea Bacsinszky in the quarterfinals.
She's hit a high volume of unforced errors, including 33 against Wozniacki—yet she still won that match in straight sets. She's been able to go for her shots, relying on winners to offset mistakes.
How Williams Has Looked so Far
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Known for playing herself into top form in tournaments, Williams seems to raise her game to the level of the challenge.
Against Sharapova, someone she's beaten 18 times, Williams appeared to be on auto-pilot. Victoria Azarenka forced Williams to shift into a higher gear after dropping the first set.
She was one game away from being knocked out of the tournament by British No. 1 Heather Watson, before finding that higher level that stays tucked away and ready when she needs it.
Her serve has improved in the later rounds after serving just three aces in her opening match. She had 10 against Venus in two sets, 17 against Azarenka in three sets and 13 against Sharapova.
Biggest X-Factors?
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Muguruza has the power and poise to beat anybody on tour. However, she does suffer from stage fright occasionally. She admitted that she had a mental letdown in her quarterfinal loss to Sharapova in the 2014 French Open.
She told Sports Illustrated: "It's tough now because I had the opportunity to win the match. But I need more experience in these kind of matches. I think I played very good in three sets, but in the important moments I need to improve my mentality."
Although she's played in big matches, including two back-to-back appearances on show courts, the Wimbledon-final experience is completely different. From the walk out accompanied by a child escort to the bouquet of flowers and the distinguished members of the royal box, it feels, and is, different from all other Slams.
Will Muguruza embrace the new experience like the 17-year-old Sharapova in her first Wimbledon final, or does she become overwhelmed like Sabine Lisicki? Muguruza's mental state will be a huge X-factor.
Muguruza isn't the only one who has to calm her nerves. Williams is playing with a boat-load of stuff on the line. Can she remain in the moment?
Unforced errors will also be a huge X-factor. Both ladies put heat on the ball, but the one who hits the clean winners and minimizes the errors will keep the pressure on the opponent.
Muguruza Will Win If...
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Muguruza, listed at 6', 161 pounds, packs a wallop from both wings. She doesn't just hang out at the baseline, waiting for chances to pounce. She's aggressive.
She moves unbelievably well for someone her size. Compared to others with a similar build, such as Coco Vandeweghe, Muguruza glides across grass.
An accomplished doubles player, with partner Carla Suarez Navarro, Muguruza must seize every opportunity to move to the net and end points early.
She also must remain calm. All the pressure is on Williams. Even if Muguruza marked Wimbledon down as a must win tournament, she has already exceeded everyone else's expectations. If she remains relaxed and in the zone, it's more likely that she rattles Williams, who has the weight of streaks and history on her shoulders.
If Williams gets out of sorts, she's easy prey for a dialed in Muguruza.
Williams Will Win If...
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Williams needs to serve like she did the last time she won the Wimbledon title in 2012. She hit 102 aces that year.
If Williams' serve is on, there is little Muguruza can do. In the 2012 Wimbledon final, the match was at a set a piece and Radwanska was up 2-1. Williams hit four aces in a row to make it 2-2. Radwanska never won another game.
That type of serving, even if other parts of the game falter, is what separates Williams from the rest of the field. If she serves like that, it's hello 21.
Prediction
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It's hard to pick against Williams in a final of a Grand Slam. She's 20-4 over her career, with two of those losses coming to her sister Venus.
Yet she faces a fearless competitor in Muguruza who has nothing to lose. The women have similar games. Muguruza can match Williams in power. She can also dictate pace. They both can deliver devastating cross-court backhand winners.
What Muguruza lacks is experience. Williams has been there and done that five times. Muguruza will come out swinging and make life tough for Williams. However, it won't be difficult enough. The professor serves up a lesson to the apprentice. Williams in three sets.
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