Is Demaryius Thomas Worth Calvin Johnson Money to the Broncos?

The NFL salary cap and the measuring stick it applies to player valuation leads to two questions: What is a player worth? And what is a player worth to you?

Those questions tug at each franchise’s financial structure and long-term team-building model. And now the Denver Broncos are becoming a historically unique case study for what happens when the answers to each question don’t quite align.

Based on his age and production, Demaryius Thomas—Denver’s franchise-tagged wide receiver—deserves to approach the pay plateau established by the Lions’ Calvin Johnson, at least in terms of guaranteed money.

But that might be a particularly dangerous place to drop a salary-cap anchor.

The Broncos are navigating through a delicate process with Thomas. Just as the Dallas Cowboys do with their all-galaxy wide receiver Dez Bryant, Denver has until July 15 to agree on an extension with Thomas.

Bryant and Thomas will reset a ballooning market for wide receivers during a time when the salary cap is steadily rising, and a whole lot of supremely talented pass-catching hands are waiting for money. The Falcons’ Julio Jones and the Bengals’ A.J. Green are also entering the final years of their contracts.

Thomas reportedly wants to bridge the dollar divide between the highest-paid wide receiver in football and, well, everyone else who isn’t the highest-paid wide receiver in football. That’s according to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, who reported Thomas “wants Calvin Johnson money.”

In 2012, the Lions pretty much placed Johnson under a gushing money waterfall. The contract extension he received then pays him an average of $16.2 million per season and, more importantly, $48.75 million fully guaranteed. Those numbers set the high watermark for receivers.

You may be thinking that with his blend of size, speed and overall physical clout, no one else comes close to Calvin Johnson's talent. And you’re right, but the numbers that matter—and the numbers that determine how many zeroes eventually follow a dollar sign—disagree.

That sample size is from the same three-year window when Johnson established a new single-season receiving yards record. His 1,964 yards in 2012 shattered the previous mark set by San Francisco 49ers legend Jerry Rice (1,848). He came within 36 yards of climbing to a golden rung never reached by any wide receiver: 2,000 yards.

Yet even with that explosion, Thomas’ consistent compiling through three straight 1,400-plus-yard seasons has put him only slightly behind Johnson in overall yardage since 2012 and well ahead when we look at receptions and touchdowns. But there’s a more appropriate comparison for any Thomas-Johnson money conversation.

When Megatron received his mega contract, he was 26 years old and had logged five NFL seasons. We’ve been watching Thomas catch screen passes and gallop to score many, many yards later for the same amount of time. So here’s how Johnson earned his riches over a half decade of NFL work and what Thomas is sliding across the negotiating table.

Wide receiver	Receptions	Receiving yards	Yards/catch	TDs
Calvin Johnson	366	5,872	16.0	49
Demaryius Thomas	351	5,317	15.1	41

Now we’re seeing a divide, though likely not the gaping one you expected.

The most significant separation between the two can be disregarded to a degree, with the blow of Johnson’s 555 more receiving yards softened by acknowledging career setbacks and hurdles Thomas has cleared. He missed 11 games over his first two seasons and when healthy, he had the misfortune of calling Tim Tebow his quarterback.

It’s reasonable then for Thomas to seek guaranteed money in the vicinity of what Johnson received. As Renck correctly noted, that means it's difficult to accept anything below $40 million in fully guaranteed dough.

Ascending to that financial tier will be even more in demand due to the annual salary-cap catapult. Just two years ago, team spending was capped at $123 million, and it’s since risen dramatically to $143.28 million in 2015.

When all of those factors are combined, it's easy to identify with Thomas' financial worldview and his desire for a top-market deal. Or at least one that lands him in the same area code as Johnson, where he currently owns exclusive real estate.

If we exclude Thomas and Bryant because they haven’t signed their franchise tag tenders yet, there’s over $4 million separating Johnson’s average annual base salary from the next guy.

And that next guy is...the Vikings’ Mike Wallace?

Wide receiver	Average annual base salary
Calvin Johnson	$16.2 million
Mike Wallace	$12 million
Vincent Jackson	$11.1 million
Larry Fitzgerald	$11 million
Jeremy Maclin	$11 million

Yes, yes it is. We live in a world where a wideout who hasn’t topped the 1,000-yard receiving mark since 2011 currently holds the second-highest average base salary at his position.

A market correction is needed, and Thomas is certainly qualified to be the courageous pioneer his peers can follow. But this is where the Broncos buck right into a wall made of uncertainty because the long-term interests of player and team may not quite match.

Consider, for a moment, what the 2016 Broncos will look like.

Quarterback Peyton Manning is likely/almost definitely entering his final season. That seems like a pretty safe assumption to make at this point, and Brock Osweiler is the heir to Manning’s quarterback throne.

Osweiler has hopefully developed over the past three seasons even while attempting only 30 semi-meaningful passes in garbage-time duty. But he’s still a massive step down from Manning, and in 2014 the Broncos may have shown how their offense will take shape when it’s led by a lesser quarterback.

Manning didn’t suffer his torn right quadriceps until Week 17. But his arm strength was fading before then, which resulted in an offensive shift starting in Week 12. During a stretch in which they won five out of six games, the Broncos became a strange team we hardly recognized.

They became a running team.

Games	Pass attempts/game	Run attempts/game
2014 season overall	37.9	27.7
Final 6 games	31.6	33.3

Over those six games, running back C.J. Anderson averaged 108 rushing yards, which included two 160-plus-yard weeks. Meanwhile, Manning topped 300 passing yards only once.

Thomas’ combination of size at 6’3” and 229 pounds, and speed with his 4.38 time in the 40-yard dash make him a cornerstone wide receiver. But his future with the Broncos is far more complex than shrugging, noting he’s quite good and handing over that sweet, sweet Calvin Johnson money.

If the post-Manning era means more running, along with more grounding and/or pounding, then making a long-term commitment doesn’t fit. Especially with outside linebacker Von Miller set to become an unrestricted free agent in 2016.

Instead the Broncos could hold Thomas to the franchise tag now as a Manning-led championship window possibly gets set to close and then tag him again in 2016 at $15 million. That still involves financial sacrifice, but it’s the short-term kind without commitment.

In truth, the Thomas question in Denver goes beyond one man and one premier receiver. It’s about exactly what the Manning afterlife will look like and where the focus will lie. That’s not a problem solved with money.