Fantasy Baseball 2015: Week 14's Buy-Low, Sell-High Trade Advice

Once Sunday's MLB schedule wraps up, fantasy baseball owners get a three-day vacation to enjoy some fresh summer air. Or execute trades for a second-half push. Yeah, let's go with that one.

Free from the hassle of setting lineups, fantasy managers can devote extra attention to the trade market. This is a dangerous time of year where some gamers take a foolish projections shortcut by simply doubling a player's numbers. Baseball is way more complicated than that.

When a hot start looks too good to last, it often is. Maybe a dubious All-Star selection also embellishes trade value. On the other hand, don't give up on preseason favorites mired in an early slump. 

Every fantasy team in existence can use a upgrade entering the second half. These guys can help reach that goal.

Buy Low: Danny Salazar, SP, Cleveland Indians

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One of these days, everything will click and the Cleveland Indians rotation will rule the world. Despite their savory peripherals, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar can't avoid the blow-up outings that spoil their dominance.

Salazar has twice received a fifth-inning boot over his past three starts. Shortly after he yielded seven runs to the Detroit Tigers, the Pittsburgh Pirates tagged him for five. Just like that, his ERA rose to 4.10 despite boasting baseball's fourth-highest strikeouts per nine innings rate (10.80), trailing Chris Sale, Clayton Kershaw and Chris Archer.

Despite lowering his fly-ball percentage to 36.6, Salazar has already surrendered 13 home runs. When normalizing projected homers in relation to fly balls allowed, he holds an expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) of 2.96 along with a 2.87 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). 

The electric 25-year-old continues to tease fantasy owners with his unrealized Cy Young ceiling. In 35 big league starts dating back to last year, he has notched a 4.19 ERA despite amassing 228 strikeouts and 60 walks through 200 innings. Maybe this is just who Salazar is, but even then he's still an elite strikeout source.

Sell High: Hector Santiago, SP, Los Angeles Angels

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In competitive circles, nobody will fall for Hector Santiago, who has registered a 4.11 fielding independent pitching (FIP) and .234 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). Yet days after overhearing a conversation where someone endorsed ERA as a groundbreaking stat for pitcher evaluation above wins, it's important to realize not every fantasy gamer grasps advanced metrics.

Those guys or gals simply see Santiago's shiny 2.40 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. They also know the 27-year-old has allowed seven earned runs over his last six starts, punctuated by seven shutout innings against the Texas Rangers on July 4.

Some pitchers have the skills to outperform a higher FIP. (You win, Johnny Cueto.) Those guys, however, are almost exclusively ground-ball fiends a la Dallas Keuchel and Sonny Gray. Santiago has generated an anemic 29.8 ground-ball percentage and career-high 32.8 hard-hit average.  

The fly-ball pitcher simply hasn't paid for his gopher balls. Even during his recent dominance, he has relinquished five homers, all solo shots. While he has made improvements, most notably in the command department, Santiago's ERA is due for a considerable course correction.

Buy Low: Christian Yelich, OF, Miami Marlins

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Along with Salazar, Christian Yelich spent the spring touring columns across the Internet as a popular breakout candidate. Now he's hitting .263 with five homers and seven steals, which is much better than where he stood a week or two ago.

Over the last 11 games, the Miami Marlins outfielder is 16-for-36 (.444) with a homer and two steals. Finally looking healed from an early-season back injury, the career .280 hitter has caught fire.

In hindsight, the breakout talk seems premature. As long as he posts a league-leading 69.7 ground-ball percentage, the 23-year-old will never exhibit significant power. 

Don't pay for a superstar, but see if his owner looks at the full, boring output rather than his recent hot streak. Going forward, look for a .280-.290 hitter with 10 steals and a bunch of runs scored.

Sell High: DJ LeMahieu, 2B, Colorado Rockies

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Hey, that's All-Star DJ LeMahieu to you. See if the baffling choice for the National League roster gets a bump because of the honor.

Selected by the players over Joey Votto, Justin Turner and teammate Troy Tulowitzki, the Colorado Rockies second baseman is hitting .304 with four homers and 10 stolen bases. That makes him a top-10 fantasy choice over the first three months, but all his success came early.

Since exiting April hitting a sizzling .406, he's batting .273, much closer to his carer .282 clip. A .275-.280 hitter with solid speed is fine, especially while playing at Coors Field. Yet he's a middle infielder masquerading as a shallow mixed-league mainstay. 

Chances are most competitors are too smart to fall for a high average and faulty All-Star selection. But there's only one way to know for sure.

Buy Low: Lucas Duda, 1B, New York Mets

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Lucas Duda started 2015 a new man. Over April and May, the burly slugger sprayed the field to bat .298. He brandished a different approach during the power-starved opening month, generating a 40.6 line-drive percentage and 17.7 strikeout percentage.

Now it appears little more than a misleading small sample size. Duda's average has dwindled to .242 while striking out in over a quarter of his plate appearances. The worst part for many of his owners who drafted him for dingers? He only has 10 a year after crushing 30 long balls.

Since June 1, Duda is hitting .158 with one homer and a 29.3 strikeout percentage. His struggles stand out among a debilitated New York Mets offense, but he's also the most likely to snap out of his furious funk.

The 29-year-old often produces power in bunches. In danger of closing out May with only three long balls, he clobbered six homers over a seven-game stretch. He should have at least one more surge left for the second half.

Oddly enough, the lefty's splits have drastically reversed, as he's hitting .217/.337/.371 against righties and .312/.369/.545 off southpaws. Given his .417 BABIP against lefties and .271 BABIP versus righties, those rates should normalize, a net positive for the first baseman.

Sell High: Scott Kazmir, SP, Oakland Athletics

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Fantasy gamers aren't the only managers spending July tirelessly assembling trade offers. Players will get traded in real life as well, which bears repercussions in our virtual game.

Despite their plus-45 run differential, the Oakland Athletics reside in the American League West's basement at 39-49. Never shy to shake up the roster, general manager Billy Beane will ship out veterans before the July 31 deadline unless his club catches fire in a hurry.

Enjoying a career-best 2.49 ERA during a contract year, Scott Kazmir tops the list of trade candidates. Depending on where he lands, a move could significantly hurt his second-half stock.

The 31-year-old lefty has posted a 1.40 ERA at home, allowing no home runs and a .195 opposing slugging percentage. Away from the pitching-friendly O.co Coliseum, he carries a 3.92 ERA, seven surrendered homers and a .476 slugging percentage.

Albeit a small sample size to split, the Oakland arena rates the fourth-least conducive to homers this season, according to ESPN.com's Park Factors. His ERA will likely regress regardless, so a new locale would only expedite the process.

Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.