MLB Awards 2025 For MVP and Cy Young Favorites, Contenders, Dark Horses
The 2025 MLB season is underway but the odds for the awards don't magically disappear.
Day 2 may be too early for any real shifts, but time is running out before 2025 results start moving lines. For now, preseason narratives reign supreme, which allows for some analysis of the two most important awards: MVP and Cy Young.
The MVP race last year felt over by August with the seasons Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani had. The two combined for a hard-to-believe 20 WAR and cashed chalky bets around the country.
This year can't be that easy, right?
The Cy Young is a much harder race to handicap with a wide-open AL field, even if 2024 winner Tarik Skubal of the Detroit Tigers clocks in as a sizable favorite.
In the NL, Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes is the favorite for the first, and certainly not last, time.
With odds from DraftKings guiding us, follow along for analysis on each league's favorite, top contenders and intriguing dark horses for MVP and Cy Young.
AL MVP Favorite
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Aaron Judge +310
2024 Stats: .322 BA, 58 HR, 144 RBI, 223 OPS+, 10.8 WAR
Judge will rack up another season of 40-plus homers and 100-plus RBI if he stays healthy. Perhaps the move to right field keeps him on the field for 157 games just like 2024. He'll turn 33 on April 26 and has shown no signs of slowing down, even if this is roughly when sluggers start to lose a tick of their bat speed.
The big problem is Cody Bellinger. He is now the protection behind him in the lineup with Juan Soto on the New York Mets. The prolonged absence of Giancarlo Stanton will also impact how pitchers handle the Yankees lineup. Judge's walks will go up, but his RBI opportunities will decrease.
Judge racked up a combined 21.4 WAR in his 2022 and 2024 MVP campaigns as the unquestioned best player in the AL. However, he has yet to show the ability to put up consecutive monster seasons like those, and factoring in the disastrous October, you have to imagine some sort of step backward.
If the Yankees struggle to make the playoffs, it could also be a potential negative factor in the equation.
AL MVP Contenders
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Bobby Witt Jr. +450
2024 Stats: .334 BA, 32 HR, 109 RBI, 171 OPS+, 9.4 WAR
The biggest breakout star of 2024 was Witt Jr.
At times, it felt like he put the entire Kansas City Royals team on his back en route to finishing second in the AL MVP voting. He won the AL batting title, a Silver Slugger and a Gold Glove. Can the 24-year-old replicate a 9.4 WAR season with a marginally better Royals lineup around him?
He will need to steal more bases (dipped from 49 in 2023 to 31 in 2024), increase his 30-plus home run power and maintain his Gold Glove defense. Certainly possible, but it's going to be pretty tough to replicate that season again.
The Royals lineup added the slightly above league-average Jonathan India, but he won't magically make this an imposing unit outside of the man at the top. Once again, everything falls onto Witt Jr.'s shoulders.
Yordan Alvarez +600
2024 Stats: .308 BA, 35 HR, 86 RBI, 172 OPS+, 5.4 WAR
Finally, Yordan Alvarez will play most of his games as a DH for the Houston Astros, where injury concerns can be tempered.
Hitting in front of on-base machine Jose Altuve and perfect fit at Daikin Park Isaac Paredes should lead to more RBI than the 86 he racked up in 2024's MVP-9 season. More RBI, perhaps his first 40 home run season and another year batting over .300 might be enough for the three-time All-Star.
While those numbers would be a career high, you have to be Shohei Ohtani to win MVP as a DH. There is only one Ohtani.
Gunnar Henderson +750
2024 Stats: .308 BA, 35 HR, 86 RBI, 172 OPS+, 5.4 WAR
The intercostal strain is already hurting Baltimore Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson's chances of winning MVP.
GM Mike Elias said he hopes his time on the IL will be "days instead of weeks," but Henderson will start from behind in this race. After bursting onto the scene as an MVP candidate in the first half of 2024, the MLB The Show cover star faded down the stretch.
At the age of just 23, avoiding a similar outcome seems reasonable as his body adjusts to the grind of a major league season. Expanding on the 37 homers and 92 RBI also seems reasonable in an O's offense that is littered with potential breakout candidates.
However, it's also possible this injury has ended Henderson's chances of being MVP already.
AL MVP Dark Horses
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Julio Rodríguez (+2000) is coming off the worst season of his career with a 4.3 WAR and 116 OPS+ season, thanks to a painfully slow start.
He enters his age-24 campaign in a position where projections across the board predict a stat boost from his MVP-4 season in 2023, where he hit .275 with 32 home runs and 103 RBI.
The best-case for J-Rod is the narrative that would come with putting up a career year while leading the Mariners to their first AL West title since 2001.
A’s slugger Brent Rooker (+3500) is coming off a season in which he launched 39 home runs while playing half his games at the pitcher-friendly Oakland Coliseum.
His new home is Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, which should provide a boost without the marine layer and spacious foul territory. Rooker himself believes his new park will play at about league average, which should equate to him being a strong candidate to lead the AL in home runs.
If Judge's slug is down, Rooker is a prime candidate to replace him on the top of the AL mantle.
Speaking of new parks, Junior Caminero (+12000) will play his age-21 season with the Tampa Bay Rays…in Tampa.
Steinbrenner Field is a Yankee Stadium clone, which is a much more hitter-friendly park than Tropicana, with the short porch in right field and, in theory, a windier environment than the actual Yankee Stadium in the Florida heat.
The Rays are going to put up big numbers on offense. Caminero comes with a top prospect pedigree and the sort of raw power that can take advantage of this new stadium edge.
He will need to refine his plate discipline, but a big power season from a young shortstop playing strong defense for an AL East-winning Rays team…it's not the wildest outcome.
AL MVP Pick: Julio Rodríguez
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NL MVP Favorite
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Favorite Shohei Ohtani +170
2024 Stats: .310 BA, 54 HR, 130, RBI, 190 OPS+, 9.2 WAR
Voter fatigue is the biggest obstacle for a third-straight MVP award for Ohtani.
His return to the mound should cut down on the legendary 54-home run, 59 stolen base debut season with the Los Angeles Dodgers. Yet, even if you shave off three WAR from his 9.2 from last year, he’ll likely make up for it on the mound.
The 30-year-old finished fourth in the Cy Young voting in 2022, his last full season as a starting pitcher with the Los Angeles Angels. Can he replicate that stat line of 166 innings, 2.33 ERA and 219 strikeouts? Probably not. But if he can register another 40 homers and 100 innings with an ERA below three, nobody is in his stratosphere.
Injuries are the only thing that could derail Ohtani's quest for a three-peat.
NL MVP Contenders
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Juan Soto +550
2024 Stats: .288 BA, 41 HR, 109 RBI, 178 OPS+, 7.9 WAR
Swapping out Judge for Pete Alonso isn't the worst tradeoff for lineup protection, but it is a downgrade.
Bryce Harper, Corey Seager and Trea Turner are all recent examples of players signing mega contracts with new teams and getting off to slow starts.
Soto is better than all of those players but expect more walks than ever and a downtick in home runs and RBI as he adjusts to his new digs. His defense will continue to be a data point against him as well.
Fernando Tatís Jr. +800
2024 stats: .276 BA, 21 HR, 49 RBI, 130 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
Tatís missed 60 games last year and Padres manager Mike Shildt revealed in the offseason that he played part of the season with a broken leg.
He almost beat the Dodgers by himself with a .350 average, three home runs and five RBI in the five-game playoff games vs. L.A. when it seemed like he was finally healthy.
Whether it be injuries or a suspension, Tatís has never played over 141 games. Expect that to change for the 26-year-old and expect him to be among the league leaders in home runs and RBI to go along with Platinum Glove defense in right field.
Even Soto thinks he's the best player in baseball. His peak is as good as any player in baseball.
Elly De La Cruz +1500
2024 Stats: .259 BA, 25 HR, 76 RBI, 119 OPS+, 5.2 WAR
De La Cruz is the biggest highlight reel in MLB today and that matters when it comes to MVP.
As he enters his age-23 season, it's fair to assume a bump in stats across the board. He stole 67 bases last season and 80 is a realistic goal if he cuts down on the league-leading number of strikeouts and starts drawing more walks—something he accomplished in spring training with 10 walks and 12 Ks.
With a sprint speed in the 100th percentile and the green light to run at will, how high of a stolen base projection can you go in 2025? He was one of just six players in the last decade to steal 60 bases. His stolen base tracker could be a thing come August if he is trending towards 80-plus stolen bags.
He has yet to utilize Great American "Small" Park fully. His splits were surprisingly better on the road in 2024. There is room for growth in the power department.
De La Cruz led the majors in strikeouts with 218 and errors with 29, yet he was still a plus defender. If he can lead those two categories and still be a 5.2 WAR player in 2024, there is plenty of room to improve.
There's also the team narrative of carrying the Reds to their first NL Central crown since 2012.
NL MVP Dark Horses
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Corbin Carroll (+2200) had a horrific first half of 2024 and still led the league in triples and put up a 3.4 WAR season.
The 153 OPS+ after the All-Star break suggests his 2023 breakout was no fluke, and we can expect that version of Carroll at the top of an Arizona Diamondbacks lineup that led MLB in runs scored last year.
Atlanta Braves teammates Matt Olson (+4000) and Austin Riley (+4500) both suffered down years in 2024 and have thus been relegated to long-shot MVP territory.
Yet Olson still had a bright red Baseball Savant page and is as sure of a thing as it gets with three-straight 162 games played seasons. He is just one year removed from a 54-homer, 139-RBI season and is playing on one of the premier NL contenders.
Riley missed 52 games, which sunk his chances last year, but he does have an MVP-6 and two MVP-7 finishes thus far in his career as he enters his age-28 season.
If there was ever a time to bet on his career season, it's now.
NL MVP Pick: Fernando Tatís Jr.
AL Cy Young Favorite
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Tarik Skubal +380
2024 Stats: 192 IP, 2.39 ERA, 228 K’s, 170 ERA+, 6.4 WAR
The 2024 Cy Young winner was an easy guess to be the 2025 favorite entering his age-28 season.
Almost the perfect modern-day pitcher, Skubal is in the 100th percentile for pitching run value. He throws hard, doesn't issue walks and has proved he can pitch at an elite clip for an entire season.
He plays in a pitcher-friendly park, and the Detroit Tigers should be in the playoff mix. The formula is right for the first repeat AL Cy Young winner since Pedro Martinez in 2000.
Does that stat alone make it a bet to avoid? Other than the history of this award, it's a safe bet to assume he will be right at the top of the leaderboard again.
AL Cy Young Contenders
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Garrett Crochet +450
2024 Stats: 146 IP, 3.58 ERA, 209 K’s, 115 ERA+, 4.1 WAR
Crochet was freed from the Chicago White Sox in a trade with the Boston Red Sox and has become a popular Cy Young pick. With the second-lowest odds, it may have gone too far.
Innings will be a concern for the strikeout artist, and he goes to a hitter-friendly park in Fenway. Is it fair to assume he will be the ace of a Red Sox team with World Series aspirations that leads the AL in strikeouts? Yes.
Is that enough to win the Cy Young without logging at least 175-ish innings? Probably not.
Cole Ragans +1000
2024 Stats: 186.1 IP, 3.14 ERA, 223 K’s, 135 ERA+, 5 WAR
Cy Young-4 finisher Ragans was only the second-best pitcher on the Kansas City Royals' elite staff last year behind Seth Lugo. Not any longer.
Expect the 27-year-old to fully burst onto the scene as a premier pitcher in the game with his elite velocity that touches 100 mph featuring late life. His changeup might be his best pitch, which is almost unhittable against right-handed hitters.
Ragans has improved his command, which should push his innings total closer to 200 and will likely make his first All-Star game in 2025. Cy Young is very much in play.
Logan Gilbert +1100
2024 Stats: 208.2 IP, 3.23 ERA, 220 K’s, 113 ERA+, 2.8 WAR
Gilbert is the best pitcher on the best pitching staff in baseball. The Seattle Mariners may play at the most pitcher-friendly park, but this rotation will be a force to be reckoned with all season.
Leading the charge will be Gilbert, who may have the best command on his fastball of any pitcher throwing in the mid-to-upper 90s. His pitch mix is among the most well-rounded in the game, with a newly added splitter that may be his go-to strikeout pitch.
A workhorse who has thrown at least 185 innings in three-straight seasons, the 27-year-old pitches behind one of the best defenses to go along with the park advantages. Add it up, and Gilbert could be the face of a Mariners team known for its pitching.
AL Cy Young Dark Horses
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New Yankees ace Max Fried (+2500) has Gerrit Cole-sized shoes to fill, but so what?
He finished second in Cy Young voting for the Braves in 2022, had an injury-plagued 2023, and a down 2024 where he still put up a 128 ERA+.
Fully healthy and fully in the spotlight after being deemed underrated for years, this lefty has the elite command, nasty pitch mix and big-game poise to more than live up to the eight-year, $218 million contract inked in the offseason.
Tanner Bibee (+3500) just signed a five-year, $48 million extension with the Cleveland Guardians.
If the pitching factory that is the Guardians wants to invest long-term in the 26-year-old, he must be elite. He finished second in the AL Rookie of the Year voting in 2023 and has an arrow pointing up for his 2025 outlook on a Cleveland team looking to win another AL Central crown.
Bryan Woo (+3500) is a bet on the Mariners' pitching staff having somebody win the award and on the 25-year-old improving off an underrated 2024.
He made huge strides with command and efficiency last season and offers a legitimate workhorse ceiling in 2025, along with the elite run prevention factors behind him.
AL Cy Young Pick: Cole Ragans
NL Cy Young Favorite
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Paul Skenes +300
2024 Stats: 133 IP, 1.96 ERA, 170 K’s, 214 ERA+, 5.9 WAR
Last of a dying breed or the first of a new one? Skenes won the 2024 NL Rookie of the Year award despite making his MLB debut on May 11.
Four earned runs vs. the Dodgers is his career high. It remains to be seen if he'll ever consistently throw seven-plus innings in a game, but his debut campaign suggests he's already a top-three pitcher in the sport.
The looming threat of Tommy John surgery or some sort of elbow injury will always hover over fireballers like Skenes, and you could argue a long-term absence is almost expected. However, it can't be assumed, and it sure seems like he may be a one-of-one unicorn.
Thanks to a combination of his velocity, girlfriend and dominant results, he is already one of the most well-known players in the game. He is probably the most well-known pitcher outside of perhaps Cole.
It's pretty simple: If Skenes repeats his rookie-year performance over an entire season, he will be the runaway winner.
NL Cy Young Contenders
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Zack Wheeler (+750)
2024 Stats: 200 IP, 2.57 ERA, 224 K’s, 158 ERA+, 6.1 WAR
The Philadelphia Phillies ace finished second in Cy Young voting for the second time in his career last year. It's hard to find a more consistent pitcher over the last seven seasons.
The problem is, he doesn't offer the high ceiling of so many others on this list at age 34. It's safe to assume he will offer the Phillies another 180-plus innings with an ERA under three, but that's not good enough to win the Cy Young.
With the second-lowest odds behind Skenes, it goes to show you how large of a gap there is right now.
Always the bridesmaid but never the bride.
Chris Sale (+800)
2024 Stats: 177.2 IP, 2.38 ERA, 225 K’s, 174 ERA+, 6.2 WAR
Career highs in your age-35 season for a pitcher of Sale's caliber is still hard to believe six months later.
The 2024 Cy Young winner gave the Braves everything they could have hoped for—until he ran out of gas and could not pitch in the Wild Card Round.
His 177 innings were 19 more than he had in the previous six seasons, and he landed in the top 10 percent of advanced stats virtually everywhere.
It's hard not to look at 2024 as an outlier that will be studied in pitching labs for years. Sale could offer up another All-Star caliber season; just don't expect a repeat performance in 2025.
Dylan Cease (+1600)
2024 Stats: 189.1IP, 3.47 ERA, 224 K’s, 118 ERA+, 4.1 WAR
Cease threw the second no-hitter in Padres history last year and is as motivated as any player on this list entering his final season before free agency.
His 2025 season may well determine whether he gets a contract that starts with a two or a three. Tightening up his fastball command can improve his walk rate and lower his ERA, which is the one knock on his stats.
Cease, 29, finished fourth in the Cy Young voting last year and has a second-place finish with the White Sox in 2022. He is the sort of workhorse who is a safer bet than most to pitch the entire season and finish with a top-three strikeout total.
NL Cy Young Dark Horses
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Freddy Peralta (+2800) enters his second year as the Milwaukee Brewers' ace, searching for his first top-10 Cy Young appearance.
One of MLB's most underrated strikeout artists, he consistently has one of the best whiff rates in MLB thanks to a filthy fastball.
Pitching in a weak offensive division in the NL Central behind one of the best defenses in the game gives Peralta some rather significant advantages over the competition.
The Diamondbacks’ Zac Gallen (+3000) is also in the Cease camp of looking to maximize his value ahead of free agency. He is the anchor of a potentially elite D-backs staff that finished third in the Cy Young voting in 2023 before injuries took away about a month of his 2024 season.
It's easy to see a path to winning the award with a healthy, career year in 2025 if he helps lead Arizona to one of the best records in the NL.
Spencer Schwellenbach (+3500) may not be well-known, but that will change soon. He projects to be one of the staples of a top-heavy Braves rotation for a long time.
The 24-year-old has some serious deception in his delivery that makes hitting his upper 90s fastball with late life a tall task.
If he continues to develop his secondary pitches and maintains his low walk rate, he will be an efficient strikeout king who pitches deep into games.
NL Cy Young Pick: Paul Skenes
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