Teams on Upset Alert in Day 4 of 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament

The first round of the 2025 men's NCAA tournament was one of the chalkiest in recent memory, though a few double-digit seeds did manage to survive and advance.

Just because the field has been whittled down significantly does not mean the upsets stop there, and ahead we've highlighted four higher seeds who are on upset alert heading into Sunday's second-round games.

Included is a breakdown of what the higher seed needs to do to win and what the upset-minded team must do to stay alive, while each game's moneyline as of Saturday afternoon via DraftKings for further context.

It's worth mentioning that the No. 3 seed Kentucky Wildcats were not included since they are actually underdogs against the No. 6 seed Illinois Fighting Illini, making it difficult to call them losing a potential upset.

Alabama Crimson Tide (East Region, No. 2 Seed)

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Mark Sears

Opponent: No. 7 Saint Mary's

Moneyline: Alabama (-230)

This one is going to be all about who can control the pace of the game.

Alabama checks in No. 1 in KenPom's adjusted tempo metric, playing at a breakneck pace and coming off a 90-point showing in the first round against Robert Morris, though the No. 15 seed Colonials made things interesting in what turned out to be a nine-point victory.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, Saint Mary's ranks No. 360 in that same tempo metrics out of 364 teams, with only Drake playing at a slower pace among this year's NCAA tournament teams.

The Gaels have held the opposition under 70 points in all but five of their games this season, including their 59-56 win over Vanderbilt on Friday. The Crimson Tide has failed to reach 70 points just once the entire year, and they are 4-5 in games where they fail to rack up 85 points.

This game will also see two of the best point guards in the country go head to head with Mark Sears (18.8 PPG, 5.1 APG, 1.9 A/TO) and Augustas Marciulionis (14.3 PPG, 6.0 APG, 2.8 A/TO) squaring off, and they will play a major role in dictating the tempo.

Iowa State Cyclones (South Region, No. 3 Seed)

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Tamin Lipsey

Opponent: No. 6 Ole Miss

Moneyline: Iowa State (-218)

The Iowa State Cyclones had no issues running away with things against No. 14 seed Lipscomb, coming away with an 82-55 victory while scoring 23 points off turnovers thanks to their stifling defense.

The Cyclones check in No. 8 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, but their second-round opponent Ole Miss is not far behind on that list in the No. 19 spot and fresh off a 71-64 victory over North Carolina.

The Rebels built a big early lead against the Tar Heels that swelled to as many as 22 points, only to see most of that advantage evaporate, though they ultimately weathered the storm to come away with the seven-point win.

A lot of the Rebels offense comes from a defense that hunts turnovers that lead to easy baskets, with 8.7 steals and 14.2 forced turnovers per game, and continuing those trends will be their key to pulling off the upset.

The Cyclones have an experienced point guard in Tamin Lipsey, but they are without fellow guard Keshon Gilbert, and they have been turnover prone at times this year with 18 each in bad losses to Kansas State and Oklahoma State.

Of course, they also force 15.4 turnovers of their own per game, so that advantage could be easily negated if they are racking up fast-break points of their own.

Maryland Terrapins (West Region, No. 4 Seed)

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Derik Queen

Opponent: No. 12 Colorado State

Moneyline: Maryland (-310)

With an offense that averages 81.6 points per game and a defense that ranks No. 6 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric, the Maryland Terrapins are as dangerous as any team in this year's NCAA tournament field outside the No. 1 seeds.

They came away with one of the most lopsided wins of the first round with an 81-49 victory over Grand Canyon, a team that upset No. 5 seed Saint Mary's a year ago and had a high-scoring offense of its own.

Now they face a much bigger challenge in a red-hot Colorado State team that has won 11 games in a row following a 78-70 upset of No. 5 seed Memphis on Friday.

The Rams have a future NBA talent in Nique Clifford headlining the roster, but he did not have his best game against Memphis, finishing with 14 points on 3-of-13 shooting and 0-of-6 from beyond the arc.

There is enough talent on the Colorado State roster that they were able to advance even without him shouldering the load, and that makes the Rams a scary team with legitimate Sweet 16 upside.

There is also the ongoing question of Maryland's lack of depth, with their starters or the "Crab Five" as they have come to be known accounting for nearly 86 percent of the team's scoring on the year. That's a precarious position to be in if the team suddenly has to deal with an injury or early foul trouble.

Michigan State Spartans (South Region, No. 2 Seed)

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Jase Richardson

Opponent: No. 10 New Mexico

Moneyline: Michigan State (-325)

The Michigan State Spartans won their first round matchup against No. 15 seed Bryant by 25 points, but the final score did not tell the full story.

It was a five-point game at halftime, and the Spartans led by just eight points with 11:55 remaining before they finally pulled away, but after watching so many of the tournament's top seeds cruise to victory it was a shaky start for the South Region's No. 2 seed.

Now the Spartans get to face a New Mexico team that plays at the fastest tempo of any team in the tournament outside of Alabama, averaging 81.1 points per game and coming off a 75-66 victory over No. 7 seed Marquette.

If the Lobos can push the tempo, the Spartans are a team that can get careless with the ball at times, averaging 11.5 turnovers per contest and fresh off an 11-turnover performance against a No. 15 seed.

New Mexico also has a pair of stars in Donovan Dent (20.6 PPG, 6.4 APG) and Nelly Junior Joseph (14.1 PPG, 11.1 RPG, 1.5 BPG), giving them the firepower to pull off another upset if they can control the pace of the game and make the Spartans uncomfortable.