Teams on Upset Alert in Day 2 of the 2025 Men's NCAA Tournament
The 2025 men's NCAA tournament did not wait long to give us a memorable upset.
The No. 12 seed McNeese Cowboys out of the Southland Conference built a 24-point lead against the No. 5 seed Clemson Tigers, but saw that whittled down as the second half unfolded before ultimately coming away with a 69-67 victory.
Which teams could end up on the wrong end of a Cinderella story on Friday?
We've highlighted four higher seeds who are on upset alert heading into Day 2 of March Madness, with a breakdown of what the higher seed needs to do to win and what the upset-minded team must do to stay alive.
Also included is the moneyline as of Thursday night for each game via DraftKings.
Maryland Terrapins (West Region, No. 4 Seed)
1 of 4
Opponent: No. 13 Grand Canyon
Moneyline: Maryland (-600)
This is by far the biggest long shot of our four upset-watch selections for Friday from a moneyline standpoint, but as Saint Mary's can attest, Grand Canyon is a team that has to be taken seriously.
The Antelopes pulled out a 75-66 victory over the Gaels in the first round last season as a No. 12 seed, then hung around with No. 4 Alabama until the final minutes to nearly reach the Sweet 16.
With five returning players from that team among their eight-man rotation led by former Kansas recruit Tyon Grant-Foster (14.5 PPG, 6.0 RPG), and an impact portal pickup in TCU transfer JaKobe Coles (14.8 PPG, 38 steals, 29 blocks), this is an experienced Grand Canyon roster.
The Terrapins also go eight deep, but their rotation includes two sophomores and a freshman in leading scorer Derik Queen (16.3 PPG, 9.0 RPG), and this was not a tournament team a year ago, so this will be their first game under the bright lights of March Madness.
It's entirely possible that the Maryland defense, which ranks No. 6 in KenPom's adjusted efficiency metric, is simply too much for Grand Canyon. However, last year proved it would be foolish to overlook the Antelopes entirely.
Memphis Tigers (West Region, No. 5 Seed)
2 of 4
Opponent: No. 12 Colorado State
Moneyline: Colorado State (-125)
If you're looking for a team that could be this year's NC State, look no further than Colorado State.
A little over a month ago, the Rams were not even talked about in the bubble conversation, sitting at 15-9 following a 93-85 loss on the road against Utah State on Feb. 11.
Since that time, they have ripped off 10 straight wins, upending that same Utah State team and Boise State in the Mountain West conference tournament to secure an automatic bid and enter the NCAA tournament as one of the most dangerous teams in the field based on recent momentum.
Nique Clifford might be the best mid-major player in the country, and he is a legitimate candidate to be a lottery pick in the 2025 NBA draft after averaging 19.0 points, 9.7 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 1.2 steals per game.
It speaks volumes that the Rams are actually favored in this game based on the Vegas odds, and while Memphis has an impressive resume, none of it came during the last few months while playing in a weak AAC where North Texas was the only other team ranked inside the NET Top 100.
The Tigers beat Michigan State and UConn at the Maui Invitational, while also picking up wins against Clemson, Missouri and Ole Miss during nonconference play, but they have not played a team in the NCAA tournament field since Dec. 28.
Ole Miss Rebels
3 of 4
Opponent: No. 11 North Carolina
Moneyline: North Carolina (-130)
One of 14 teams to survive the grueling SEC gauntlet and earn a spot in the NCAA tournament field, the Ole Miss Rebels are in the Big Dance for the first time since 2019.
They have proved more than capable of winning away from home, with neutral-site victories over BYU and Colorado State, along with road wins against Alabama, Arkansas and Louisville, but they went just 6-8 over their final 14 games during the regular season.
The foundation of their success is protecting the basketball, as they average just 8.9 turnovers per game, and they spread it around well on the offensive end with six players averaging at least 10 points per game.
Those would have also been pointed to as strengths for a San Diego State team that averages 11.0 turnovers per contest and does not have any one player averaging more than 14.3 points per game, and North Carolina just annihilated them 95-68 in one of the First Four games.
The Tar Heels were given plenty of bulletin board material as far and away the most controversial inclusion in the 68-team field, but let's not forget this is also a team that had enough talent to be No. 9 in the preseason poll. Even with that ugly 1-12 record in Quad 1 games, there is little question they are capable of a March Madness run.
Oregon Ducks
4 of 4
Opponent: No. 12 Liberty
Moneyline: Oregon (-310)
It might sound contradictory given the nature of this article, but Oregon is actually a reasonable pick to make a run to the Sweet 16 and beyond given a resume that includes a staggering 12 Quad 1 victories.
They went 12-8 in Big Ten play with wins over Wisconsin and Maryland, and also knocked off Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama in a span of five days to win the Players Era Festival in Las Vegas back in November.
However, they also stumbled through a five-game losing streak during conference play, and needed overtime to beat a bad Washington team in their regular-season finale just a few weeks ago.
That said, the biggest reason they are on upset watch has nothing to do with their own play and everything to do with a Liberty squad that can light it up from beyond the arc.
The Flames rank among the nation's leaders in made threes per game (10.6, 13th in NCAA) and three-point percentage (39.0, 6th in NCAA), and have a pair of prolific outside shooters in Kaden Metheny (99 threes, 39.0 3PT%) and Taelon Peter (75 threes, 46.0 3PT%).
They are 16-1 on the year in games where they made more than 10 threes, and that could be their recipe for a first-round upset.
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