NHL Fraud Meter: 8 Contenders Nobody Should Bet On
If it's March, it must be tournament time.
The NCAA has built brackets for its men's and women's basketball events, and it won't be long before the NBA starts a series of play-in games that will eventually crown a championship team.
But this is a hockey space.
And, to B/R's hockey staff, it's always a good time to discuss the Stanley Cup or, in this case, the teams that will probably not win it.
We looked at the standings and the 16 teams that will make the playoffs if things remain exactly as they are after Sunday's games. Some are legit contenders, but some clearly aren't. We present the latter collection here as a public service to those who might be considering a wager when the postseason arrives next month.
Take a look at what we came up with and drop a thought in the app comments.
Edmonton Oilers
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It's the worst-kept secret in hockey.
Connor McDavid is the consensus best player in the world. Leon Draisaitl seems poised to lead the league in goals and perhaps grab another MVP award, too.
And the Oilers did get to the brink of a title last summer by rallying from 3-0 down before falling, by one goal, in Game 7 against the Florida Panthers.
But there's some dry rot underneath the shiny surface.
Though Jake Walman arrived in early March to bolster the blue line and the deals that brought Trent Frederic and Max Jones from Boston should add some jam, Edmonton's fortunes begin and end with goaltending. And it's not been good.
The team's overall 2.88 goals-against average is respectable, but the Stuart Skinner/Calvin Pickard tandem has veered far closer to dreadful lately, with a 3.50 goals-against since Feb. 1 that is tied for 27th among 32 teams.
Could Nos. 97 and 29 outscore the recurring mistakes come April? Perhaps.
But unless the incumbent goalies find a mojo they've not possessed all season, it's far more likely the Oilers' post-script will deal less with plans for hanging a banner and more with what they might have done to address the issue at the deadline.
Los Angeles Kings
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Make no mistake, the Kings have been playing good hockey lately.
Five straight wins through Sunday brought Los Angeles back from cutline oblivion to the thick of the Pacific Division race, where they entered Monday trailing first-place Vegas by just five points with two games in hand.
Somehow, though, we're just not feeling it.
Staying where they are would leave the Kings with a fourth straight first-round series with Edmonton. And, though they've got a strong enough chance to end the three-year losing streak, it's a bit harder to see them overcoming a season-long offensive funk (2.88 goals per game) that places them 14th of 16 prospective playoff teams.
Coach Jim Hiller's group has been mediocre away from Crypto.com Arena, too, with 13 road wins through Sunday good enough for only a 20th-best ranking in the league.
A better ending than recently? Sure. But 16 wins and a Cup? Save your money.
Minnesota Wild
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Remember the good old days?
You know, when the Minnesota Wild went through their first seven games without a regulation loss (5-0-2), had 20 wins in their first 30 games (20-6-4) and were touting Kirill Kaprizov as an MVP candidate with 38 points in his first 23 games through Nov. 30.
Minnesota spent some time atop B/R's Power Rankings, too, but to say it's gone south since then would be accurate, if not understated.
A lower-body injury and surgery have kept Kaprizov off the ice since late January and the team has predictably suffered, falling to fourth in the hyper-competitive Central Division and just six points ahead of fifth-place St. Louis and a full-on playoff miss.
Minnesota's 19 standings points without Kaprizov are tied for 21st in the league and its 2.06 goals per game without "The Thrill" are dead-last among 32 teams. It hasn't helped either that Joel Eriksson Ek hasn't played since Feb. 22, leaving the Wild two of its top six point-getters.
GM Bill Guerin hopes both players can return before the season's end, but even if they do, it's unlikely they can find their strides in time to avoid an early exit. Presuming, of course, that the skeleton crew can even maintain its playoff spot, which is far from a gimme.
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New Jersey Devils
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So your favorite team is dealing with injuries, eh?
Don't expect too much sympathy from the New Jersey Devils.
The league's Garden State residents were busy last June and added what they considered to be a vital piece in Jacob Markstrom, who arrived from Calgary and has solidified the goal crease and helped lower the goals-against average from 3.43 last season (26th in the league) to 2.59 (fourth-best through Sunday).
Buoyed by Markstrom's excellence, the Devils were first in the East with a 24-11-3 record through Dec. 27 and remained sixth-best in the conference through early March with a perfectly contender-like .583 points percentage.
But then it happened.
Jack Hughes, who missed 20 games due to injury in 2023-24, was lost for the season on March 2 when he suffered a shoulder injury that required subsequent surgery.
The 2019 No. 1 pick had already equaled his goal total (27) from last season and was on pace to challenge career highs in both goals (43) and points (99).
Instead, he's on long-term injured reserve, New Jersey is 3-3-0 in its first six games without him, and a once-safe playoff perch has devolved into a tenuous third-place standing in the Metropolitan Division, just six points ahead of the New York Rangers and seven points from falling out of the playoff field entirely.
Stay away.
New York Rangers
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We'll concede, we're not entirely sold on the Rangers.
For good reason.
The Presidents' Trophy winners from last season have been in enough of a 2024-25 slumber to eliminate themselves from the playoffs as a whole, let alone a title.
But they've been surging enough lately to make us hesitate just a bit.
A 7-3-0 run from Feb. 2 through March 3 got coach Peter Laviolette and Co. back into the Eastern conversation, and New York was fourth in the Metropolitan and eighth in the conference through Sunday's games.
The Rangers' goal-per-game differential (3.50 to 2.50) during the 10-game run was third-best in the league and comparable to the season-long 3.39 to 2.76 margin last year, which woke up the echoes for the most partisan of fans.
Still, the Rangers regressed to 2-3-2 in seven games since March 2 and their dead-even goal differential (204 goals for, 204 goals against) is the worst among the eight teams that entered Monday in an Eastern playoff position.
The offense has foundered, the goaltending has been iffy and there's not been enough consistency to make anyone think a 16-game run is imminent. Pass.
Ottawa Senators
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Let's be clear: This is less about the Senators and more about the East.
Only one team in the league exited the weekend as hot as the residents of Canada's capital city and we're all-in on Ottawa finally ending a playoff drought that stretches back to a conference final run in the spring of 2017.
A so-so season-long offensive output of 2.94 goals per game (17th in the league) has spiked to 4.25 since March 1, which is best in the East and second in the league.
Meanwhile, the goaltending has been workable throughout 2024-25, with a 2.80 goals-against average good for 10th of 32 teams.
So there's plenty of reason to like Brady Tkachuk and Co.
The biggest problem for the Senators is the standings, where a fourth-place spot in the Atlantic has them lined up for a first-round date with Florida. And even though we're all-in on the idea of a seven-game brotherly scrap, it's a lot to ask for a team of players with little to no playoff experience to start with the defending champs.
It won't be too long before Ottawa is on the must-bet list, though.
Vancouver Canucks
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Inconsistent much?
The Canucks were Pacific Division champs last season and got off to a strong start this time around, with a 14-7-4 record through 25 games placing them eighth overall in terms of points percentage on Dec. 6.
However, it wasn't long before the drama between teammates J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson led to a 10-11-6 skid over the subsequent 27 games, sending Vancouver tumbling in the standings and ultimately prompting the team brass to send Miller to the New York Rangers in a vibe-changing Jan. 31 deal.
The results are mediocre (8-7-1) since the trade, but they've ticked up a bit lately, with four wins in seven games getting the team back into a Western playoff spot.
Is it enough to label them a real contender? Not so much.
Offense has been an issue since opening night, with scoring languishing at 24th best (2.73 goals per game) thanks in part to the 31st-best shots average (25.4). And the goals have been even scarcer (2.38 per game) since the Miller trade, giving the Canucks the worst goal differential (-18) of any post-Sunday playoff team.
Journeyman Kevin Lankinen has been a revelation in place of an (again) injured Thatcher Demko, but even a .904 save percentage and 2.54 goals-against average won't be enough to flip the scoresheet.
Washington Capitals
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Yep, we know.
The Capitals exited Sunday as the top team in the East and second overall, trailing only the Winnipeg Jets. They've scored the most goals (244), allowed the fourth fewest (175) and have been good both on the road (23 wins) and at home (21).
But they were the only team in the league without a 4 Nations rep and remain behind Dallas, Edmonton, Florida and Colorado—none of which are ahead of them in either points or wins—when it comes to Cup favorites at DraftKings, as of Monday.
So what's the reason?
For us, it's just a hunch thing.
Though Alex Ovechkin will be the league's all-time scoring king and has earned both a championship ring and a post-retirement spot at the Hall of Fame, you have to search a bit before you find anyone else who scares you, particularly when it comes to a seven-game series against teams with more recent postseason pedigree.
Yes, there are five players with at least 20 goals, led by Ovechkin's 34 in 51 games. But leading point-getter Dylan Strome (65) is tied for 25th in that stat, and it's another 13 spots before you get to Pierre-Luc Dubois (59) in a tie for 38th.
There's no Nikita Kucherov. There's no Sam Reinhart. Heck, there's no Brad Marchand.
Which means, aside from "The Great 8," there's also no big-time playoff street cred.
And though goalie Logan Thompson has been magical in his first year as a full-time workhorse, it's no less daunting on that end considering he'll have to outdo the likes of Igor Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy and Sergei Bobrovsky just to get to the Final.
Could they back up what's been a terrific 67 games with a deep run? Of course. And is it perfectly logical for someone to look at what's been accomplished already and decide to let it ride with them come April? Absolutely.
All we ask is this: When the would-be championship run ends a little sooner than later, just remember where you heard it first.
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