MLB Exec Projects '50-50' Chance Dylan Cease is Traded by Padres amid Yankees Rumors

One MLB executive believes that it's "50-50" San Diego Padres right-handed starting pitcher Dylan Cease is traded, per Jon Heyman of the New York Post.

"One American League executive said he hears Dylan Cease, the star Padres right-hander, isn’t going anywhere in trade," Heyman began.

"Yet another says he hears it’s '50-50.'"

Heyman reported on Thursday that around nine teams have spoken with San Diego about Cease, including the New York Yankees, who will lose staff ace Gerrit Cole for the year due to season-ending Tommy John surgery.

The 29-year-old Cease, who will be a free agent after this season, went 14-11 with a 3.47 ERA (1.07 WHIP) over 33 starts in 2024. He struck out 224 batters over 189.1 innings and finished fourth in the National League Cy Young race.

San Diego risks losing Cease in free agency next year. At the same time, he's a bona fide staff ace that's worth investing in, and the Padres should do whatever they can do keep him aboard.

In addition, there could also be some reluctance on the Yankees' part to get something done. Jon Morosi of MLB Network added some pessimism Tuesday that a Cease deal could materialize.

"The expectation in the industry over the last 24 hours is that Dylan Cease is not going to be traded to the Yankees to save their rotation in light of the Gerrit Cole injury," Morosi said. He also noted that New York is "reluctant, somewhat, to add payroll right now."

Per Cot's Contracts, the Yankees have a projected 40-man luxury tax payroll of $304.8 million.

New York is down two projected starting pitchers in Cole and also reigning American League Rookie of the Year Luis Gil, who is sidelined for at least three months with a lat strain.

That could certainly heighten the team's need for starting pitching, but Yanks general manager Brian Cashman told reporters last Tuesday that "very little is available."

“We’ll just evaluate what’s available, and this time of year, very little is available,” Cashman said, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “Normally, the more significant opportunities don’t exist until the Trade Deadline. When we’ve had these conversations many a time over, you hope you can withstand injuries and avoid injuries early from Spring Training up through the Draft, because going outside the organization is just that much more difficult to do. So we’ll rely on what we have, and we’ll explore what is limited available in the marketplace.”

Per RosterResource, the defending AL pennant champions will go into the season with a projected starting rotation of Carlos Rodón, Max Fried, Marcus Stroman, Clarke Schmidt and Will Warren. Rodón is getting the call to start Opening Day on Thursday, March 27 at home versus the Milwaukee Brewers.