Wimbledon 2015 Women's Semifinals: Radwanska vs. Muguruza Preview and Prediction
Don't tell Agnieszka Radwanska and Garbine Muguruza that their 2015 Wimbledon semifinal match is the B-side to a classic hit. They are two fascinating characters that could play the lead in a Charles Dickens novel, complete with their pleasing names and compelling styles of play.
There's Polish star Radwanska's veteran resurgence after she had faded from the WTA Tour like an old newspaper. A few years removed from her career-high No. 2 ranking and a Wimbledon final, she has pushed aside her struggles and found her fine array of guile and tactics. Will she nibble her way to Sunday's extravaganza?
On the other side is the new glossy portrait of another rising star. Muguruza just might be the best of the young WTA aspirants, and if she can harness her dynamic strokes with more precision and composure, she could be the one looking to take on either Maria Sharapova or top-ranked Serena Williams.
This is the semifinal with greater range of possibilities, less predictability and huge implications in carving out an even brighter future for either player.
Who Has the Historical Edge?
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Radwanska won their first two matches in 2012-14, but Muguruza turned things around at their Australian Open tuneup meeting in Sydney. Down a set, Muguruza figured out how to hit her way to victory, using both sides of the court to stretch Radwanska to the corners. Her superior pace was the difference in pulling away 3-6, 7-6 (4), 6-2.
Their last meeting was a further illustration of Muguruza’s advantages on the fast hard courts of Dubai. She dominated 6-4, 6-2, but Radwanska was not playing with the kind of control and success that she is showing at Wimbledon right now.
Will it be No. 13-seeded Radwanska’s ability to play clean tennis with changes of pace that frustrated Madison Keys in the quarterfinals? Or will No. 20-seeded Muguruza’s extra four inches of height and superior power find the zone to dust off her smaller, scampering counterpart?
Right now, Muguruza has more recent success and the nod for greater upside. She gets a slight edge here.
Radwanska at 2015 Wimbledon
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Her draw was a nice way to play herself into the good Radwanska tennis that fans have enjoyed watching in recent years. She dropped only 12 games in her first three matches combined, cruising into the fourth round with only five, five and seven unforced errors in the three respective matches. That’s spectacular cleanliness, something that Dove or Ivory should consider if they need a spokeswoman to push soap.
The breakthrough was a tough 7-5, 6-4 win over Jelena Jankovic, who had just dethroned defending Wimbledon champion Petra Kvitova. Of note, Radwanska seized the match with greater offense: 32 winners and 21 of 32 points at net. She was sharp in winning 47 percent of her service returns, showing that she was ready to compete for the second weekend.
Her quarterfinal match over younger, powerful Madison Keys was a kind of blueprint for how she can do damage against Muguruza. While Keys and her serve fluttered in the wind, Radwanska had the right mix of some beautiful drop shots and flat, floating butterflies. She only had one unforced error in a first set that included a clean tiebreaker.
Radwanska carved out so many different locations with her shots in putting the onus on Keys to prove she wouldn’t self-destruct. No shot was the same, and there were times she took medium-paced shots and followed them up with slower shots. It was a surgeon’s touch and the kind of match that John McEnroe could appreciate.
Muguruza at 2015 Wimbledon
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Muguruza was tested in the third round against favored Angelique Kerber. She held her nerve for an 83-minute first set, including an epic 17-minute, 14-12 tiebreaker. Vivienne Christie for Wimbledon.com called this a huge moment, stating that "the Spaniard showed the kind of heart that might not only change the course of her tennis life, but will gain her many fans in the process."
She outlasted Kerber with aggressive hitting and energy for a 6-2 statement in the third set. It merely pointed the way to her masterful fourth-round beating of Caroline Wozniacki in which she nearly tripled the number of winners (29-10) over the favored Dane. This is the kind of execution she will need against Radwanska, who, like Wozniacki, relies more on defense and control.
Her quarterfinal win over Timea Bacsinszky was backed by her growing composure during the kind of tight matches that Wimbledon often brings. She seized the big points and breaks (three of four) and survived some mediocre second serves.
Right now she is enjoying her run. She jumped in the air and fell back on the grass with the kind of smiles teenager Jennifer Capriati had about 25 years ago. Indeed, Muguruza's game showed a blend of Capriati angles and power. Is she ready to win the semifinal at Wimbledon?
The Biggest X-Factors
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Composure
Radwanska's game is built to absorb the attacks from bigger and more powerful players. This will be nothing new. However, many times she has followed up wonderful matches with clunkers when it is a money match. If things do fall apart, she must continue to use patience and hope that her opponent comes down to earth. She is more likely to have this advantage.
Muguruza's confidence is riding high. She knows she can win this match, because she has had big wins in the past year as well as her crushing victory over Serena Williams at the 2014 French Open. But it's one thing to cruise when things go well. She may find it more difficult to hit away against Radwanska. She needs to keep her head up when her shots miss, or she will find herself scowling like Madison Keys.
Second Serves
One of the weak points for Muguruza has been her feeble second serving. She often lays it in with mediocre speed and very little spin or kick for variety. Against Timea Bacsinszky she won only nine of 23 second serves. Excepting her masterful serving over Caroline Wozniacki, she will need to win about half of those second serves, or she will need to connect with a lot of first serves.
For Radwanska, second serves against Muguruza will allow her to play the cat-and-mouse points she would like to impose. The more she can get Muguruza off balance or reaching from uncommon spots on the court, the more likely it is she will win. Likewise, she needs to spread around her own second serve so that Muguruza does not lean into a lot of service return winners.
Radwanska Will Win the Semifinal If...
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It's important for Radwanska to be steady early in the match. She does not want her young opponent crashing out of the gate playing like a young Maria Sharapova. She would ideally love to get an early break to put the pressure on Muguruza and get her to go for too much power, something in the first-set neighborhood of 12-15 unforced errors.
Meanwhile, Radwanska will need her touch, flat floaters, deft hummingbird slice and soft drop shots touching down on the grass. She could really help herself by closing the net now and then.
Radwanska also cannot afford mental lapses to allow her opponent to regroup. This was costly in the second set against Madison Keys, and Muguruza may have a little more gumption to fight back and turn the tables on her. Radwanska is never so good that she can relax and cruise to the finish. She must keep her steely focus on each point as it comes. If so, she will win.
Muguruza Will Win the Semifinal If...
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Right now the Spaniard is just one of many young WTA talents looking to be a future champion. We've already seen plenty of ups and downs with talents like Simona Halep and Eugenie Bouchard. The first thing Muguruza needs to do is forget about the moment, the expectations, the press and the dream of getting to the Wimbledon final. She must stay in the moment like it's a first-round match at a mid-major.
She has a beautiful backhand that opens up and creates delicious and sharp angles to the ad corner. It's a lot like watching young Venus Williams reach down and turn it into a scorching winner or setup. She will need to understand that she must pick her spots on when to go for it, particularly when she finds herself looking at a lot of junk that spins and floats onto strange spots on the grass.
She will need to respond with patient aggression, but especially with the consistency to outlast Radwanska with long points. She might be better off at times using heavy topspin rather than blasting away, at least to prepare herself to endure as well as to sprint. She will need to win both sides of the court and slowly but surely turn her power advantage into victory. She must not shrink with passive play in a potential third set.
Prediction
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I actually feel that this match is a coin toss. It would not surprise me in the least to see either player impose her style and get to the Wimbledon final. It might be better for the future of women's tennis if Muguruza picked up another level and blasted her way into a great Wimbledon final.
But right now might not be the time or place for Muguruza to break through. She's still not there yet, and like Madison Keys, she will find it frustrating to play Radwanska in a big match, as if she suddenly had to drink coffee with a fork.
Radwanska has had her struggles recently and in dealing with bigger players in bigger matches, but she will likely not beat herself, and this could be the important difference. We'll say that Muguruza has plenty of flashes of brilliant tennis, but it won't be enough to outlast Radwanska in three hard-fought sets.
Let's hope she has enough left to challenge the heavy favorite from the top of the bracket.
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