'Contender or Pretender' for All MLB Playoff Hopefuls at the Halfway Point

We've nudged past the halfway point in the MLB season. Yes, it feels like an arbitrary marker, but it's actually a significant signpost.

What it means, more than anything, is that we've seen enough baseball to begin drawing conclusions, to cast sample-size caveats aside and make educated, if incomplete, assessments of where all 30 clubs stand.

For example: Which of the current crop of contenders are actually, you know, contenders. And which, by contrast, are mere pretenders?

For our purposes, we'll define a potential contender as any team that's .500 or better and within five games of a postseason berth as of July 7. That eliminates a few squads, but it leaves us with an imposing pile to sift through.

To predict their fate, we'll use stats, a glance at current roster construction and the possibility of near-term upgrades, plus a dollop of old-fashioned intuition.

Because even after the all-important/semi-arbitrary halfway point, a lot can (and will) change.

New York Yankees

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images

Record: 44-39

The New York Yankees currently rank among the top five MLB teams in home runs, OPS and runs scored. Needless to say, their offense has been carrying them.

That offense is propelled in part by an array of surprisingly potent veterans, including first baseman Mark Teixeira (an All-Star inclusion) and designated hitter Alex Rodriguez (an All-Star snub).

Yes, New York's pitching staff has yielded the 21st-highest ERA in baseball. Its lineup is also a couple of seemingly inevitable injuries away from implosion.

However, the AL East is one of baseball's most wide-open divisions, and the Yanks could win it, especially with a bolstered rotation.

Top-flight starting pitchers like Johnny Cueto and Cole Hamels are "probably too expensive" for New York's blood, according to Andrew Marchand of ESPN.

Still, as they try to get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2012, it's unwise to count out the Yankees as trade-deadline shakers.

Verdict: Contender

Baltimore Orioles

Matt Marton/Associated Press

Record: 43-41

After running away with the division last year and advancing to the ALCS, the Baltimore Orioles carried some lofty expectations into 2015.

They aren't meeting them thus far, but they're in second place in the AL East, nipping at the heels of the Yankees.

Yes, Baltimore is in the midst of a skid, having lost seven of its past 10. And yes, like most teams, the Orioles could use another starting pitcher, particularly after struggling veteran Bud Norris was bumped to the bullpen.

But with hitters like Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Jimmy Parades leading the way, and with a pitching staff that's sixth in the American League with a 3.72 ERA, expect the O's to at least flutter around the playoff picture yet again.

Verdict: Contender

Toronto Blue Jays

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Record: 44-42

Offense, Toronto Blue Jays is thy name. 

While Jays pitchers rank 23rd in baseball with 4.16 ERA, their bats pace the field in runs, slugging percentage and OPS.

Now imagine if Toronto got some pitching help, like the potential trade, which CBS Sports' Jon Heyman posited, wherein the Blue Jays net right-hander Jeff Samardzija from the Chicago White Sox.

Samardzija isn't matching his superlative 2014 output, but any shot in the arm for the Jays would be a welcome development.

"We still need to make upgrades in the rotation and the bullpen, that goes without saying," Toronto general manager Alex Anthopoulos told Jeff Blair and Kevin Barker on Sportsnet 590 The FAN on June 29. "I'd love to land both."

Verdict: Contender

Tampa Bay Rays

Julie Jacobson/Associated Press

Record: 43-43

The Tampa Bay Rays have lost nine of their last 10 to slip back to .500 and into fourth place in the AL East. Still, they're just 2.5 games back.

Ace Chris Archer has emerged as a Cy Young contender, and right-hander Jake Odorizzi, also in the midst of a breakout season, is set to come off the disabled list, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.

The Rays offense, however, ranks 13th in the AL in runs scored. 

Last year at the trade deadline, Tampa Bay shipped out left-hander David Price. Expect the Rays to be buyers this time around, looking to add a bat (or two) and push toward their fourth postseason appearance in the last six years.

Verdict: Contender

Kansas City Royals

Ben Margot/Associated Press

Record: 48-33

Sure, the Kansas City Royals ruffled some feathers with their barrage at the All-Star ballot box. That doesn't mean they aren't good.

In fact, their .270 team batting average ranks second in the AL, while their pitching staff owns the league's second-stingiest ERA at 3.50.

Basically, the Royals are winning with the same formula that propelled them to Game 7 of the World Series last year: speed, defense, timely execution and a shutdown bullpen.

The main question now is whether Kansas City can become the AL's first repeat champion since the Texas Rangers in 2011 and take another crack at a Commissioner's Trophy.

Verdict: Contender

Minnesota Twins

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press

Record: 45-39

Admit it: You've been waiting all season for the Minnesota Twins to go away.

Manager Paul Molitor's bunch simply wasn't supposed to be this good; not yet, anyway. The Twins were supposed to be all about young talent in the pipeline, a contender-in-waiting with the No. 2 farm system in baseball, per ESPN's Keith Law.  

Yet here they are, second place in the AL Central and in line for the second wild card if the season ended today.

The season doesn't end today, of course. And Baseball Prospectus remains pessimistic, foretelling a 35-43 finish that would leave Minnesota just under .500 when all is said and done.

The Twins, though, just keep winning. And they could get a serious boost from 22-year-old prospect Michael Sano, who clubbed his first big league home run Tuesday.

The safe money is probably still on the Twins returning to Earth. But with each passing day, they look less and less likely to go away.

Verdict: Contender

Detroit Tigers

Leon Halip/Getty Images

Record: 42-41

Losing Miguel Cabrera for six weeks to a calf injury didn't doom the Detroit Tigers' season, but it certainly pushed it to the brink.

Writing for Sports on Earth, Anthony Castrovince broke down Detroit's predicament:

"

This is not a club that can outpitch its problems, and so the onus falls all the more on [Victor] Martinez, the other Martinez (J.D. has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball the last few weeks thanks to an increasingly aggressive approach at the plate) and Yoenis Cespedes. Where once there might have been an argument to be made for moving the pending free agent Cespedes before the trade deadline to bring back some pitching support, such a point feels moot with Miggy out of the equation.

"

The Tigers own the second-worst team ERA in the AL at 4.25 and have a negative run differential despite their potent offense.

If Cabrera returns and produces, the Tigers could still slug their way into the picture. Right now, though, their streak of four straight division titles is in serious jeopardy.

Status: Pretender

Houston Astros

Ron Schwane/Associated Press

Record: 49-37

The Astros' season has been such a surprise, they've basically exhausted the world's supply of ham-fisted Houston/rocket-ship metaphors.

They've also erased all doubt that they're the team to beat in the AL West.

They're second in the AL in runs scored, fifth in team ERA, fourth in team OPS—the list goes on. And the addition of rookie shortstop Carlos Correa, who has started his big league career on a tear, is as good as a blockbuster trade.

Speaking of which: The Astros have "checked in on" front-line starters like Samardzija, Cueto and Scott Kazmir, according to MLB.com's Brian McTaggart.

Any of those arms paired with hirsute ace Dallas Keuchel is a scary thought indeed.

Verdict: Contender

Los Angeles Angels

David Zalubowski/Associated Press

Record: 45-38

Despite the presence of reigning AL MVP Mike Trout and a resurgent Albert Pujols, the Los Angeles Angels' offense has sputtered.

The Halos sit near the bottom of the AL in most offensive categories, yet they're above .500 and holding on to a wild-card spot.

That's thanks in part to a pitching staff—anchored by All-Star snub Hector Santiago—that ranks fifth in the league with a 3.61 ERA.

The Angels are reportedly in the market for a bat, particularly a left-handed left fielder or DH who gets on base, per Fox Sports' Jon Morosi. 

They probably won't catch the 'Stros and repeat as division champs. But if they can boost the lineup, look for the Angels to fly back to the playoffs.

Verdict: Contender

Washington Nationals

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Record: 46-38

The Washington Nationals entered the season looking like one of the few juggernauts in MLB, with a stacked lineup and ace-laden pitching staff.

They haven't been a disappointment; they're in first place, after all. But they haven't completely dominated either.

Mostly that's because the pitching has failed to live up to the hype. Yes, Max Scherzer, the big fish of the offseason, has been a revelation since arriving in the nation's capital. But others, including injury-bitten Stephen Strasburg, have struggled.

The Nats' offense, however, led by brash basher Bryce Harper, has picked up the slack, scoring the third-most runs in the NL.

Bottom line: The Nationals have hit a few bumps, but they're still on a clear path to October.

Verdict: Contender

New York Mets

Gregory Bull/Associated Press

Record: 43-42

The New York Mets rank dead last in the NL in team batting average and runs scored. So it doesn't take a baseball savant to deduce that their pitching has kept them afloat.

And, sure enough, the Mets have the league's third-best ERA.

Even there, however, there's trouble brewing. New York's use of a six-man rotation has recently been called into question—not by some talking head, but by staff ace Matt Harvey.

"With that much time off in-between starts, throwing once a week, I found a rhythm in the bullpen and then once I got a hitter in there and got the adrenaline going a little bit, things kind of got out of whack," Harvey said after a July 4 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers, per Mike Puma of the New York Post.

Griping aside, the Mets' stockpile of arms is a clear asset. If they can't swing a trade for a bat, however, it might be a wasted one.  

Verdict: Contender

Atlanta Braves

Mike McGinnis/Getty Images

Record: 42-42

Add the Atlanta Braves to the list of clubs no one expected to be in the postseason conversation. Here they are, though, still hovering at the .500 mark into July, refusing to fold.

Newly minted All-Star Shelby Miller has emerged as an ace, and overall the staff owns a solid 3.90 ERA.

The offense, though, isn't equipped for a playoff run. And, as Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal Constitution correctly points out, "the Braves aren’t about to trade young and cheap for older and pricy."

As good of a story as they've been, these Braves—who sport a negative-24 run differential, easily the worst of any club on this list—appear destined to get chopped.

Verdict: Pretender

St. Louis Cardinals

Jon Durr/Getty Images

Record: 54-30

The St. Louis Cardinals lost ace Adam Wainwright for the season in April. And others—including offensive cogs Matt Adams and Matt Holliday—are on the disabled list.

Yet the Cards keep steaming ahead with the best record in baseball.

Yes, they've dropped six of their last 10, and may finally be showing the strain of injury. But with the league's best ERA (2.62) and fourth-best team batting average (.259), St. Louis remains the class of the NL.

If the Cardinals can add a bat at first base to replace Adams' production and maybe another arm, they'll solidify their chances of playing in a fifth consecutive National League Championship Series—and quite possibly beyond.

Verdict: Contender 

Pittsburgh Pirates

Keith Srakocic/Associated Press

Record: 49-34

Look out baseball, here come the Pittsburgh Pirates.

After winning eight of their last 10, the Bucs own the second-best record in the game. If they didn't share a division with the game's winningest team, they might get even more attention.

They should get plenty, though, as the summer progresses.

With an offense led by reinvigorated All-Star and former NL MVP Andrew McCutchen and a pitching staff that's second only to the Cards with a 2.87 ERA, the Pirates look primed for a third straight postseason appearance.

Verdict: Contender

Chicago Cubs

DAVID BANKS/Associated Press

Record: 46-37

When the Chicago Cubs swept a doubleheader against the Cardinals July 7, it felt like more than two notches in the win column, as ESPN's Jesse Rogers explained:

"

[The] Cubs kept coming up short against the vaunted Cardinals earlier this season. Time and again it was St. Louis that made the play or delivered the pitch that made the difference in taking eight of the first 10 games between the two rivals. All that changed on Tuesday.

"

Yes, the Cubbies are still the youthful upstart in the NL Central. But their vaunted young talent is beginning to deliver, pushing them nine games over .500 and into the second wild-card slot.

And while Chicago won't likely part with any of its blue-chip talent, don't put it past president of baseball operations Theo Epstein to swing a significant deadline deal.

Verdict: Contender

Los Angeles Dodgers

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

Record: 47-38

Clayton Kershaw has looked mortal. Yasiel Puig has spent time on the disabled list. And yet the Dodgers still sit in first place in the NL West, four games ahead of the hated-rival San Francisco Giants.

That's because of the glass-half-full stuff, like Zack Greinke putting together a Cy Young-caliber season, Justin Turner emerging as an offensive force and rookie Joc Pederson launching home runs with reckless abandon.

The Dodgers figure to be active at the deadline as they seek to bolster a rotation that has lost several arms to injury. 

Flaws and all, they remain the biggest-spending bullies on the block and the favorites to claim an eminently winnable division.

Verdict: Contender

San Francisco Giants

George Nikitin/Associated Press

Record: 43-42

A recent eight-game skid bumped the defending champs back down toward .500 and ignited the old familiar talk about the odd-year curse.

On Tuesday, the Giants answered back with a 3-0 win over the New York Mets, a game that featured two promising developments.

First, Matt Cain tossed six shutout innings in his second start of the season after missing nearly a year to injury.

Second, Hunter Pence returned to the lineup after a second stint on the disabled list and flashed the hitting, defense and irrepressible energy that make him San Francisco's most important player not named Buster Posey.

The Giants will likely make some moves over the coming weeks and would do well to bolster a suspect bench. But if Pence and Cain stay healthy and effective, it'll be as good as a blockbuster deadline deal.

Verdict: Contender

All statistics and records are current through Tuesday, July 7.