Buying Or Selling MLB's Latest 2025 Spring Training Camp Buzz
The 2025 MLB spring training season is two weeks old. This isn't really news and, in fact, this is a time of year when proper news is hard to come by.
But it's out there, assuming you know where to look for the it.
It happens that this is such a place, as we're going to dive into seven buzz-worthy stories fresh out of Arizona and Florida. They come in all shapes and sizes, with the only common denominator being they're attention-grabbing in some way.
As each story is a Rorschach test of sorts, we'll be playing a game of "Buy or Sell" as we go. If the implied narrative is believable, it's a buy. If not, it's a sell.
Nolan Arenado Says He Wasn't Showcasing for Yankees
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Nobody would have expected Nolan Arenado to play in the St. Louis Cardinals' exhibition against the New York Yankees on Wednesday, and rightfully so.
The Cardinals hold camp in Jupiter, whereas the Yankees hold theirs in Tampa. The two sites are about three hours apart, and it's typical for nobody to bat an eye when veterans like Arenado's status would rather not bother with that kind of travel.
Yet he did, though he says it wasn't because he was trying to make his case as a guy the Yankees should still want to trade for.
"I didn't come here for that," the 33-year-old told Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "Day 3 of spring training. That wouldn't be a good day to showcase myself. I'm not ready for that."
This is fair enough at first glance, and Arenado didn't do a good job if he did want to showcase himself. He went 0-for-3 and struck out twice.
Yet we do know that Arenado is on board with the Cardinals trading him, so long as it's on his terms. The Yankees are among his preferred destinations, according to Katie Woo of The Athletic, and they did try to get him early in the offseason.
As there was no follow-up effort to get another third baseman, the position still looms as a relative weakness. And with Giancarlo Stanton set to begin the season on the IL with bad elbows, the Yankees suddenly have a need for an impact hitter as well.
Verdict: Sell
The Yankees May Have MLB's Best Double Play Combo
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Despite those question marks at third base and DH, there are currently two exclamation marks looming over shortstop and second base for the Yankees.
This is if Jazz Chisholm Jr. is to be believed, anyway. He's set to team up with Anthony Volpe on the middle of the infield, and he's set a high bar for how good they can be together.
“I think we could be the best shortstop-second baseman in the league, definitely defensively,” Chisholm said Thursday, per Bryan Hoch of MLB.com. “And I think we are probably going to turn the most double plays in the league, too. That would be my prediction for us.”
There's nothing wrong with aiming high, and even the characteristically boisterous Chisholm is worth taking seriously here. He is a former All-Star, after all, while Volpe is an erstwhile top prospect who hasn't yet turned 24.
Then again, Chisholm is an oft-injured player whose best position is arguably third base. He's also yet to have a 3-WAR season, whereas Volpe has two of those in two seasons. The latter's value comes overwhelmingly from his glove, as he's been 17 percent worse than the average hitter.
FanGraphs projects the Yankees to get 8.1 WAR from their middle infielders. Solid, but such tandems as Corey Seager-Marcus Semien, Gunnar Henderson-Jackson Holliday, Bo Bichette-Andrés Giménez are among the eight who project better.
Verdict: Sell
No, Really, the Astros are Serious About Jose Altuve in Left Field
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When it came out in January that Jose Altuve was willing to move to left field, it felt like a less-than-subtle ruse to lure Alex Bregman back to the Houston Astros.
Now that Bregman is with the Boston Red Sox, you'd think the ruse would be over. But on the contrary, this seems to be a real thing in development in Astros camp.
On Friday, there was Altuve in left field in Houston's exhibition against the Cardinals. Even before that, the nine-time All-Star second baseman had already carried out a sort of ritual sacrifice with his infield glove:
There is reason for skepticism as to whether Altuve is cut out for left field. Beyond his lack of experience out there, also working against him are declining speed and one of the weakest throwing arms in the majors.
As such, you can't help but wonder if the real goal here is to prove to Nolan Arenado that the team still wants him. As it is, there have been recent negotiations between Houston and St. Louis.
Yet it's not as if Altuve, 34, was anything special at the keystone. He was indeed among the worst at the position in 2024, posting minus-nine Outs Above Average.
Even if Altuve isn't cut out for left field, him playing out there could be a net positive for Houston. It'll allow Yordan Alvarez more chances to work at DH, with Isaac Paredes sticking at his customary position at third base. Second could pass to former Gold Glover Brendan Rodgers, who's in camp as a non-roster invitee.
Verdict: Buy
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Rafael Devers Is Not Frustrated, and Not Backing Down
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Speaking of Bregman now being in Boston, that move ended up causing quite the stir when the news cycle caught up with Rafael Devers and his perspective on things.
Though Bregman is a better third baseman—see his 2024 Gold Glove—Devers was quick to dig in his heels at the hot corner. "Third base is my position," he declared to reporters upon reporting to spring training.
It's a complicated situation, and thoughts of a trade were indeed tempting. Yet even then, you had to wonder if cooler heads would prevail and if maybe—just maybe—Devers would back down.
He's not, though.
“I feel like I said everything I needed to say that day,“ Devers told Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com, through translator Daveson Perez. ”I still feel the same way."
The 28-year-old, who still has nine years left on a 10-year, $313.5 million contract, also added that he's "not frustrated." It is nonetheless clear that he's only moving off third in Boston one of three ways: the Red Sox either force the move, sell him on the move or they trade him.
At this point, the path of least resistance is to simply have Bregman play second base, where manager Alex Cora believes he has Gold Glove upside. This is also the most likely outcome. Whether or not he's lying about his frustration level, Devers' reluctance to hand over third base is a stance worth buying.
Verdict: Buy
An Astronomical Target Price for Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
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Vladimir Guerrero Jr. wanted a contract extension from the Toronto Blue Jays before spring training started, and he didn't get it.
The question "Now what?" has been looming ever since.
We know that the Blue Jays offered their slugging first baseman $340 million somewhere in the vicinity of December, and also that he deemed it "not even close" to his asking price.
As for what his asking price may be, Jon Heyman took a shot at a prediction in his B/R live stream from this past Wednesday: "I think probably $600 million, plus."
That is 80 percent of the $765 million that Juan Soto got from the New York Mets, and it makes some sense as a target point. Hitting has never been harder, and Guerrero is similar to Soto in that both are superior hitters in their mid-20s.
Still, we're not talking apples to apples. Guerrero (25 years, 351 days) is barely younger than Soto (26 years, 128 days), and he hasn't been as productive. His first 819 games have yielded a .863 OPS, compared to a .948 OPS for Soto.
Perhaps none of this will matter once Guerrero reaches free agency after the 2025 season, but Dan Szymborski of FanGraphs ballparked his value at a max of $500 million. And even that is assuming he doesn't have a down year akin to 2022 or 2023.
Verdict: Sell
The Mets Aren't Sweating Injuries to 2 Key Pitchers
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Elsewhere in matters related to huge expenses, the New York Mets' $331 million roster has already begun to fall apart.
They're dealing with injuries to pitchers Frankie Montas (strained lat) and Sean Manaea (strained oblique), both of whom are going to miss Opening Day. Montas could even be out through May and into June.
Despite this, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported Tuesday that the Mets are not expected to pursue outside help, though that comes with an "at least not at this time" caveat.
They did sign Jose Ureña to a minor league deal, inserting him among an array of options after a front three of Kodai Senga, Clay Holmes and David Peterson in the rotation. Yet none of those options is inspiring, and Senga (injury) and Holmes (converted reliever) have questions in their own right.
There is sense in reuniting with José Quintana, even if the "Cohen tax" would effectively double the cost of his 2025 salary. The Mets also have trade options to consider, including whether to reconnect with the San Diego Padres about Dylan Cease.
Despite their huge payroll, FanGraphs only has the Mets as the third-best team in the NL East. They're thus already risking all that money going to waste, and it feels needless while legitimate help is out there for them.
Verdict: Sell
Max Scherzer's Interesting Take on the ABS Challenge System
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Major League Baseball has brought robot umpires to spring training. This is merely the next phase of an ongoing experiment, but it's exciting nonetheless.
Unless you're Blue Jays veteran Max Scherzer, in which case the robot umps—OK, fine, "ABS challenge system"—are to be greeted with skepticism.
“We’re humans," the three-time Cy Young Award winner lamented to Jayson Stark of The Athletic. "Can we just be judged by humans?”
The context here is important, as Scherzer challenged two calls in his start against the Washington Nationals on Tuesday and lost both. And yet, he did raise an interesting point about the long-term usefulness of the ABS.
"You know, kind of my gut is that it’s going to be 50-50 and you don’t really have a net gain," he told Stark.
His numbers don't add up if you're considering the entire field of questionable ball-strike calls, but it's the split that will really matter. It is to this end that Scherzer may have a point. The difference between successful defensive challenges and successful offensive challenges in the minors in 2024 was 54 percent to 48 percent.
Yet even if those numbers come to be exactly in line in the majors, that doesn't mean the ABS will be a wash. The real impact will ultimately be measured in win probability shifts, and that is simply not a binary spectrum.
Verdict: Sell
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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