NCAA Tournament 2025: Stock Watch for Bubble Teams
In just a few short weeks, the start of another thrilling March Madness will be on the horizon, but there is still a lot of basketball to be played before the 68-team field that will battle for a national championship is revealed.
Ahead is a full breakdown of the current bubble situation, with a rundown of how things look in each of the five major conferences as well as the few notable mid-major teams that are in the conversation for an at-large bid.
Included is each team's full resume and recent performance over the past three games, leading up to our take of up, down or holding for each team's current stock.
A lot can still change in the coming weeks, but this provides a snapshot of where things stand across men's college basketball less than a month from Selection Sunday.
ACC Bubble Teams
1 of 6
Safely in Projected Field: Duke, Louisville, Clemson
North Carolina Tar Heels (15-11, 8-6 in ACC, NET: 47)
Quad Records: 1-10 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2, 5-1 vs. Q3, 4-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Pitt, Loss at Clemson, Win at Syracuse
The Tar Heels began the year at No. 9 in the AP poll, but they have not been ranked since the first week of December following a 4-4 start. They were blown out by Louisville (83-70), Clemson (85-65) and Duke (87-70), and they have an ugly 1-10 record in Quad 1 games. The regular-season finale against Duke provides one last opportunity for a statement, but with a 3-5 record in their last eight games, their bubble might be burst before they even get that far.
Stock: Down
SMU Mustangs (19-6, 10-4 in ACC, NET: 40)
Quad Records: 0-4 vs. Q1, 5-2 vs. Q2, 9-0 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at Virginia Tech, Win vs. Pitt., Loss vs. Wake Forest
Saturday's loss to Wake Forest was a major blow for SMU, not only because it snapped a five-game winning streak that was part of an 8-1 stretch overall but also because it came to another ACC team squarely on the bubble. The Mustangs still have to play Clemson on Feb. 22, which is one of only two remaining home games among the six games left on their schedule, and their margin for error is thin.
Stock: Down
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (19-7, 11-4 in ACC, NET: 58)
Quad Records: 2-6 vs. Q1, 5-0 vs. Q2, 6-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at California, Loss vs. Florida State, Win at SMU
The Demon Deacons came away with a huge victory against SMU on Saturday behind a big game from Hunter Sallis (20 points, 9 rebounds, 6 assists), but it came on the heels of a Quad 3 loss at home to Florida State. It still might have been enough to move them ahead of SMU in the bubble picture, but the most likely outcome right now might be all three ACC bubble teams missing the NCAA tournament. A win at Duke on March 3 would shift that narrative for Wake Forest.
Stock: Holding
Big 12 Bubble Teams
2 of 6
Safely in Projected Field: Houston, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Arizona, Kansas, Baylor
BYU Cougars (18-8, 9-6 in Big 12, NET: 36)
Quad Records: 4-6 vs. Q1, 4-2 vs. Q2, 4-0 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at West Virginia, Win vs. Kansas State, Win vs. Kansas
A road win against West Virginia and a Saturday victory over a hot Kansas State team had BYU trending in the right direction, and a 91-57 blowout win over Kansas on Tuesday might be enough to move them off the bubble entirely. The remaining schedule includes road games against Arizona and Iowa State, and a win in either of those would officially punch their ticket.
Stock: Up
Cincinnati Bearcats (15-10, 5-9 in Big 12, NET: 45)
Quad Records: 1-9 vs. Q1, 7-1 vs. Q2, 0-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. BYU, Win vs. Utah, Loss at Iowa State
The Bearcats got off to a 10-1 start before losing four in a row and eight of their first 10 during Big 12 play. They climbed back into the bubble picture with a three-game winning streak, but they had that snapped with an 11-point loss to Iowa State on Saturday. Unless they can pull off an upset of Houston on March 1, they face an uphill battle earning a spot in the field.
Stock: Holding
West Virginia Mountaineers (15-10, 6-8 in Big 12, NET: 44)
Quad Records: 5-7 vs. Q1, 2-3 vs. Q2, 3-0 vs. Q3, 5-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Utah, Loss vs. BYU, Loss at Baylor
Since pulling off an upset of Iowa State on Jan. 18, the Mountaineers have gone 2-6 in their last eight games, including a tough overtime loss to Baylor on Saturday. They are trending in the wrong direction, but their five Quad 1 wins might be tough for the committee to ignore. Along with the Iowa State win, they also have victories over Arizona, Kansas and Gonzaga.
Stock: Down
Big East Bubble Teams
3 of 6
Safely in Projected Field: St. John's, Marquette, Creighton, UConn
Villanova Wildcats (15-12, 8-8 in Big East, NET: 54)
Quad Records: 1-6 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 3-2 vs. Q3, 6-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. St. John's, Loss at Providence, Loss at UConn
The Wildcats boosted their stock with a 12-point win over fellow bubble team Xavier on Feb. 9 and then scored a huge Quad 1 victory over then-No. 9 St. John's last Wednesday. Those wins have been followed up by losses to Providence and UConn, but this team is still in much better position than it was when the calendar first flipped to February.
Stock: Holding
Xavier Musketeers (17-10, 9-7 in Big East, NET: 53)
Quad Records: 1-8 vs. Q1, 6-2 vs. Q2, 3-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at Providence, Win vs. DePaul, Win vs. Butler
The Musketeers are 7-3 in their last 10 games, and those losses all came on the road against quality opponents in St. John's, Creighton and Villanova. They might have been overtaken by Villanova for the No. 5 spot in the Big East picture after the Wildcats upset St. John's, but they still have time to leapfrog them once again, especially if they can beat Creighton at home on March 1.
Stock: Holding
Big Ten Bubble Teams
4 of 6
Safely in Projected Field: Purdue, Wisconsin, Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, UCLA, Illinois, Oregon
Nebraska Cornhuskers (17-9, 7-8 in Big Ten, NET: 46)
Quad Records: 6-7 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Ohio State, Loss vs. Maryland, Win at Northwestern
Since losing six in a row in January, the Cornhuskers are 5-1 in their last six games with Quad 1 wins over Illinois, Oregon, Ohio State and Northwestern during that stretch to completely transform their resume. Their remaining schedule is favorable, aside from a home game against Michigan and a road game against fellow bubble team Ohio State that could end up serving as further feathers in their cap.
Stock: Up
Ohio State Buckeyes (15-11, 7-8 in Big Ten, NET: 28)
Quad Records: 4-8 vs. Q1, 3-3 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 6-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at Nebraska, Win vs. Washington, Loss vs. Michigan
It's been years since a team with a NET ranking as high as Ohio State has right now failed to make the NCAA tournament field, but things are not trending in the right direction. A road trip to face UCLA and USC still awaits, as does a road game against Indiana to close out the regular season. The 86-83 loss to Michigan on Saturday could end up being a costly missed opportunity.
Stock: Down
SEC Bubble Teams
5 of 6
Safely in Projected Field: Auburn, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Texas A&M, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Missouri, Mississippi State
Arkansas Razorbacks (15-10, 4-8 in SEC, NET: 42)
Quad Records: 3-8 vs. Q1, 1-2 vs. Q2, 4-0 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Alabama, Win vs. LSU, Loss at Texas A&M
The Razorbacks started the season 11-2 in non-conference play with their only losses coming against Baylor and Illinois, but they stumbled to a 1-6 start in conference play and looked to be quickly falling out of the NCAA tournament picture. They are 3-2 since that rocky start with road wins over Kentucky and Texas, but a big week awaits as they get set to face No. 1 Auburn and No. 15 Missouri. If they lose both of those games, it's going to be a tough road ahead.
Stock: Holding
Georgia Bulldogs (16-10, 4-9 in SEC, NET: 39)
Quad Records: 2-10 vs. Q1, 3-0 vs. Q2, 3-0 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss vs. Mississippi State, Loss at Texas A&M, Loss vs. Missouri
The Bulldogs have not been to the NCAA tournament since 2015, and their 2-10 record in Quad 1 games does not exactly jump off the page, but they are still alive on the bubble thanks to the SEC's depth. Their only victories over their last 10 games came at home against LSU and South Carolina---both Quad 3 wins---but an upset of Auburn (Feb. 22) or Florida (Feb. 25) in their next two games would raise their profile considerably.
Stock: Down
Oklahoma Sooners (16-10, 3-10 in SEC, NET: 52)
Quad Records: 4-8 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 3-1 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at Missouri, Loss vs. LSU, Loss at Florida
The Sooners were one of college basketball's final unbeaten teams with a 13-0 record to start the year that saw them climb as high as No. 12 in the AP poll, but that was followed by a four-game losing streak to begin SEC play. They are now mired in a five-game losing streak that is threatening to derail their NCAA tournament hopes, and their next four games are all against ranked opponents.
Stock: Down
Texas Longhorns (16-10, 5-8 in SEC, NET: 32)
Quad Records: 4-8 vs. Q1, 3-2 vs. Q2, 1-0 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Loss at Vanderbilt, Loss vs. Alabama, Win vs. Kentucky
A win over Kentucky on Saturday snapped a three-game losing streak for the Longhorns, and it also gave them a fourth Quad 1 victory to move them to the head of the SEC bubble teams. Freshman Tre Johnson dropped a season-high 32 points on Saturday, and he is averaging 23.7 points over his last seven games and playing his best basketball of the season.
Stock: Holding
Vanderbilt Commodores (17-8, 5-7 in SEC, NET: 41)
Quad Records: 2-7 vs. Q1, 4-1 vs. Q2, 3-0 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Texas, Loss vs. Auburn, Loss at Tennessee
A victory over Kentucky on Jan. 25 moved the Commodores to 16-4 on the year and earned them a spot in the AP poll for the first time since the 2015-16 season. That might prove to be the high point of their season, as they have gone just 1-4 since, including a 30-point loss to Oklahoma. Their next four games are all against ranked teams before closing out the regular-season slate against fellow bubble hopefuls Arkansas and Georgia.
Stock: Down
Mid-Major Bubble Teams
6 of 6
Safely in Projected Field: Memphis, Saint Mary's, Gonzaga, New Mexico, Utah State
Drake Bulldogs (23-3, 13-3 in MVC, NET: 59)
Quad Records: 2-0 vs. Q1, 2-1 vs. Q2, 9-2 vs. Q3, 8-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. Indiana State, Win at Illinois State, Loss vs. Bradley
The Bulldogs had won 11 in a row prior to Saturday's 61-59 loss to Bradley (NET: 79), but the Braves are easily the second-best team in the Missouri Valley and that could end up being a Quad 2 loss. Non-conference victories over Vanderbilt and Kansas State give the Bulldogs a viable resume beyond just their conference performance, but they can't afford another slip up.
Stock: Holding
San Diego State Aztecs (18-6, 11-4 in MWC, NET: 50)
Quad Records: 4-4 vs. Q1, 3-1 vs. Q2, 2-1 vs. Q3, 7-0 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at San Jose State, Win vs. Boise State, Win vs. Fresno State
The Aztecs had wins over Houston and Creighton during the non-conference slate, and they have a clear case for being the third-best team in the Mountain West behind New Mexico and Utah State. Their loss on the road to Colorado State on Feb. 8 was not a resume killer, and they can probably still afford to lose to Utah State on the road on Feb. 22, but they need to take care of business in their remaining games.
Stock: Up
UC-San Diego Tritons (22-4, 12-2 in Big West, NET: 43)
Quad Records: 2-1 vs. Q1, 0-1 vs. Q2, 6-1 vs. Q3, 12-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win at UC Irvine, Win at Cal State Bakersfield, Win vs. UC Davis
It's been 20 years since the Big West received an at-large bid, with Pacific and Utah State both making the 2005 NCAA tournament. Their road victory over UC-Irvine (NET: 61) earlier this month was a Quad 1 win, giving their resume a nice boost. The margin for error is non-existent, but they are squarely in the at-large conversation right now.
Stock: Up
VCU Rams (20-5, 10-2 in A-10, NET: 34)
Quad Records: 1-1 vs. Q1, 5-3 vs. Q2, 2-0 vs. Q3, 11-1 vs. Q4
Last 3 Games: Win vs. La Salle, Win at Dayton, Win at George Washington
The Rams are 11-0 at home this season and play four of their remaining six games at the Stuart Siegel Center, so that bodes well for a strong finish. They are 10-1 in their last 11 games, and still have quality opponents in George Mason (NET: 64) and Dayton (NET: 73) coming up to further build their resume.
Stock: Up
Others to Watch: Boise State, Bradley, Dayton, George Mason, Liberty, McNeese, North Texas, San Francisco, UC-Irvine, Yale
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