Updated Win-Loss Projections for Every MLB Contender at the Midseason Mark
With the season halfway complete, let's take a look at the most updated win-loss projections for contending teams, courtesy of FanGraphs.
FanGraphs uses an advanced formula to predict how each team will finish the season. With 50 percent of the season in the rearview mirror, some of those projections are quite interesting.
It shouldn't shock anyone to see the St. Louis Cardinals at the top of the expected standings, but what about a projected losing record in the second half for the Kansas City Royals? Will the Los Angeles Dodgers and Washington Nationals have the best second-half records? And which team will win the American League East?
These projections are far from perfect, but they do provide insight into which teams have the best chance to qualify for the postseason. We'll analyze FanGraphs' expected standings and decide whether each contending team will underachieve or overachieve that total.
For the purpose of this slideshow, only teams better than .500 will be considered contenders. That's not to say teams that aren't mentioned can't fight back into the playoff picture, but it's hard to give a team with a losing record that distinction this far into the season.
Let's get started!
Baltimore Orioles
1 of 17
Current Record: 41-36
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 42-43
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 83-79
After a mediocre start, the Baltimore Orioles have fought to reach the top of the American League East at the season's halfway point. The O's put together a productive June, going 18-10 over the last month.
Baltimore's offense has caught fire, as the Orioles currently rank fifth in baseball in runs scored. Manny Machado has been Baltimore's MVP, leading the team in WAR, wRC+, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, runs and RBI. With an unlikely contribution from Jimmy Paredes and the return of Chris Davis, the O's lineup has become much more than just Adam Jones.
While the bats are finally heating up, it's been Baltimore's pitching that's kept it afloat. Ubaldo Jimenez, Wei-Yin Chen and Miguel Gonzalez have held down the rotation, while the bullpen has combined for the sixth-lowest ERA in MLB.
The Orioles have the best record in the AL East against teams in the division. Baltimore is starting to jell at the right time and should exceed the second-half losing record that FanGraphs has projected.
Whether that's enough to win the division remains to be seen.
Chicago Cubs
2 of 17
Current Record: 40-35
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 46-41
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 86-76
The Chicago Cubs didn't lack hype and expectations before the 2015 season, but the club has managed to safely navigate through the first half of the year with a winning record.
This may surprise baseball fans outside of the Windy City, but the Cubs' pitching has been the reason for their success.
Chicago touts the sixth-lowest team ERA in MLB. Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel have picked up the slack for a below-par Jon Lester, while five Cubs relievers with at least 18 innings have an ERA under 3.00.
Offensively, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant have carried the club. Without significant improvements from other key members in the lineup, it's hard to see the Cubs beating out other teams in the NL wild-card race.
Detroit Tigers
3 of 17
Current Record: 39-37
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 43-43
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 82-80
What should we make of the 2015 Detroit Tigers? Detroit has elite talent up and down its roster but has yet to fully click this season.
A once-great pitching staff desperately misses Max Scherzer, as Tigers starters rank 19th in ERA in MLB. David Price has exhibited his usual mastery, and Alfredo Simon has done his part, but the rest of the rotation has pitched poorly.
Detroit's offense hasn't been as bad, but it has yet to perform up to its lofty standards. Losing Victor Martinez for a significant part of the first half greatly affected the depth of the lineup, as Miguel Cabrera, Yoenis Cespedes and J.D. Martinez could've used his presence.
Still, a team with this much talent is bound to go on a run. If the Detroit front office can acquire a quality starter before the deadline, there's no reason the Tigers can't put some pressure on the Kansas City Royals and win 85-plus games.
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Houston Astros
4 of 17
Current Record: 46-34
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 41-41
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 87-75
The Houston Astros have been the darlings of the 2015 MLB season. Only the St. Louis Cardinals have won more games in the first half.
Houston has done so behind an influx of young, exciting talent. Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers, George Springer, Preston Tucker, Domingo Santana and a handful of others have played key roles in the club's success.
Another reason for Houston's first-place standing is Dallas Keuchel. The left-hander has been one of the American League's top starting pitchers, posting a 2.03 ERA in 17 starts. With Keuchel, McCullers and an improving Collin McHugh, the Astros have the makings of a solid playoff rotation.
Like most teams, the Astros could use an upgrade or two before the deadline—Scott Kazmir would be a perfect fit in the rotation. But even if Houston goes .500 the rest of the way, a win total in the mid-80s would put them near the top of the AL West.
Kansas City Royals
5 of 17
Current Record: 44-30
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 43-45
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 87-75
FanGraphs got this one wrong. The Kansas City Royals are the most complete team in the American League and should have no problem exceeding 90 wins this season.
Kansas City's offense is filled with high on-base players who put the ball in play. Of the team's position players who have played in at least 60 games, Only Alex Gordon has a strikeout percentage exceeding 20 percent. That formula worked well last season, and it's leading to similar results in 2015.
The Royals do have concerns with their starting pitching, as the rotation has seen eight different hurlers start games this season. But if K.C. adds a starter before the deadline, the rotation is deep enough to get the job done. However, Kansas City starters don't need to be perfect with the game's best bullpen behind them. Royals relievers lead the American League in ERA.
It wouldn't be surprising to see Kansas City go through a rough patch or two in the second half, but it's hard to imagine the team putting together a losing record. Expect the Royals to win 90-plus games and have the best record in the AL come October.
Los Angeles Angels
6 of 17
Current Record: 41-37
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 43-41
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 84-78
The Los Angeles Angels have hovered around .500 for most of the season, but they have managed to stay within striking distance of the Houston Astros. The Halos are only four games back halfway through the season.
The Angels desperately need offensive upgrades. After finishing 2014 with one of the top lineups in baseball, L.A. ranks 22nd in runs scored in 2015. It's Mike Trout, Albert Pujols and a handful of replacement-level players. The Halos will surely be scanning the market for an impact bat over the next month.
On the mound, L.A.'s rotation has been solid and should only get better with Jered Weaver and Matt Shoemaker underachieving in the first half. Any semblance of improvement from those two hurlers would give the Angels a formidable collection of starters.
It's hard to count Los Angeles out with so much talent at its disposal, but the team must improve in several areas if it's going to approach the 90-win threshold.
Los Angeles Dodgers
7 of 17
Current Record: 44-35
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 48-35
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 92-70
FanGraphs projects the Los Angeles Dodgers to win more games than any other MLB team in the second half. Looking at the talent on the roster, it's easy to see why.
L.A.'s pitching staff has posted the third-lowest ERA in baseball through the first half. The Dodgers have been able to navigate through injuries to Hyun-Jin Ryu and Brandon McCarthy due to surprise performances from Brett Anderson and Mike Bolsinger.
While a team with Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke should have a quality staff, a much-maligned Dodgers bullpen has been among the league's best. Los Angeles relievers lead MLB in WAR.
With Yasiel Puig finding his groove after an early-season injury, L.A.'s offense has the potential to be scary good. If L.A. can avoid more unfortunate injury luck, another 90-win season is in the cards.
Minnesota Twins
8 of 17
Current Record: 41-36
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 39-46
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 80-82
The Minnesota Twins figured to be a year or two away from being legitimate contenders, but the club has appeared ahead of schedule in 2015. Minnesota is over .500 and in the thick of the AL playoff picture.
But over the last month, Minnesota has played like the team many expected before the season. The Twins were 11-17 in June, and the premature promotion of top prospect Byron Buxton reeks of desperation.
The Twins rank in the middle of the road both offensively and on the mound. Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe are the only bats worth mentioning, while the rotation has only one hurler with a WAR greater than 1.0.
Without parting with some of its prized youngsters, Minnesota won't be able to improve before the deadline. The Twins are an average team that's played over their heads during the first half, and a regression over the course of the rest of the season should be expected.
New York Mets
9 of 17
Current Record: 40-38
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 42-42
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 82-80
The New York Mets have a playoff-worthy staff, but a punchless lineup will be their undoing.
Mets starters have the sixth-lowest ERA in baseball in 2015. Matt Harvey and Jacob deGrom have been stellar, while prospects Noah Syndergaard and Steven Matz have looked fantastic since making their anticipated debuts.
Unfortunately, the consistency of the rotation has been wasted by the fourth-worst offense in the big leagues. Lucas Duda and Curtis Granderson are the lone Mets hitters providing any sort of production at the dish.
New York anticipated having a healthy David Wright, but there's still no excuse for a team with a rotation this good to be consistently trotting out players like John Mayberry, Eric Campbell and Darrell Ceciliani. Without a splash before the deadline, the Mets won't be anything more than mediocre.
New York Yankees
10 of 17
Current Record: 41-37
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 44-40
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 85-77
The New York Yankees are one of the many competitive teams in the crowded AL East, but FanGraphs has them pegged as the favorites heading into the second half.
As usual, New York's offense has been as good as it gets in MLB. Behind fantastic seasons from Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner and Mark Teixeira, the Bronx Bombers rank second in baseball in runs scored and have as much firepower as any team in the division.
On the other hand, the rotation has been atrocious. Nathan Eovaldi and CC Sabathia have pitched especially bad, leading many to believe the Yankees will be in the market for a starter before the deadline.
Somebody has to win the division, and the Yankees have the offense and the bullpen to do so. But without an upgrade in the rotation, it won't be easy.
Pittsburgh Pirates
11 of 17
Current Record: 43-33
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 47-39
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 90-72
The Pittsburgh Pirates may not catch the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central, but the Buccos are a legitimate World Series contender nonetheless.
Pittsburgh has the second-best team ERA in MLB through the season's first few months. The three-headed monster of Gerrit Cole, A.J. Burnett and Francisco Liriano can match up with any trio in baseball, while the bullpen can trot out six dependable late-inning options.
The offense has endured through its share of struggles this season, but it has scored enough runs to support the fantastic staff. Andrew McCutchen has put any ideas of a decline to bed, while Francisco Cervelli and Starling Marte are producing at career levels.
FanGraphs is buying Pittsburgh's latest surge, as it has the Pirates winning the third-most games in the second half. Overtaking the Cardinals seems unrealistic, but nobody will want to face the Pirates in October.
San Francisco Giants
12 of 17
Current Record: 42-36
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 43-41
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 85-77
Despite injuries to Hunter Pence and Jake Peavy, the San Francisco Giants have managed to climb near the top of the NL West.
The Giants have enjoyed a number of breakout performances in 2015. Offensively, Brandon Crawford has become one of the top all-around shortstops in baseball, while Joe Panik and Matt Duffy have established themselves as productive everyday options.
On the mound, Chris Heston has been the only Giants starter to provide ace Madison Bumgarner with any sort of support. Heston has a sub-4.00 ERA and a no-hitter under his belt this season.
Although the Giants and the Los Angeles Dodgers have battled atop the division for most of the year, FanGraphs doesn't see San Francisco keeping up with its bitter rivals.
Still, San Fran should be a shoo-in for one of the two wild-card spots, especially if the rotation improves in the second half.
St. Louis Cardinals
13 of 17
Current Record: 51-25
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 46-40
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 97-65
The St. Louis Cardinals have continued to prove why they're considered one of the top franchises in all of sports, let alone MLB.
St. Louis has gotten off to a blistering start behind an outstanding rotation. Losing Adam Wainwright hasn't slowed down the likes of Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez and John Lackey, as Cardinals starters are sporting a league-best 2.89 ERA.
As good as the St. Louis rotation has been, the club's bullpen is giving it a run for its money. Its 2.01 ERA is also the best in baseball, with closer Trevor Rosenthal pitching as well as any reliever in the game.
With Matt Carpenter, Kolten Wong, Matt Holliday and a suddenly scorching-hot Jason Heyward, the Cards have plenty of ammo to support their staff. If St. Louis stays healthy, 100 wins isn't out of the question.
Tampa Bay Rays
14 of 17
Current Record: 42-37
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 40-43
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 82-80
In what is becoming a yearly tradition, the Tampa Bay Rays are exceeding expectations this season.
The Rays have tussled with the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles at the top of the AL East standings for the majority of the season. As usual, Tampa is getting the job done with a cast of unsung heroes.
Tampa Bay's rotation is the best in the division. Chris Archer, Jake Odorizzi and Nate Karns have given the club fantastic production, while Erasmo Ramirez and Matt Andriese have filled in admirably after injuries to Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly.
Offensively, the Rays have gotten steady performances from Logan Forsythe, Evan Longoria, Brandon Guyer, Steve Souza and Joey Butler. Picking them out on the street may be a challenge, but Tampa Bay's lineup has done enough to support the rotation.
With Smyly and Matt Moore returning, Tampa Bay's pitching is only going to improve. If the Rays can add a bat before the deadline, 90 wins and an AL East title could become a reality.
Texas Rangers
15 of 17
Current Record: 40-38
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 39-45
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 79-83
The Texas Rangers looked sunk after an early-season injury to ace Yu Darvish but have battled back above .500 due to a surprisingly solid pitching staff.
Texas starters rank 10th in ERA. Yovani Gallardo has stepped up to fill Darvish's shoes, while Nick Martinez, Chi Chi Gonzalez and Wandy Rodriguez have all pitched well for the Rangers.
Offensively, Texas has more than enough firepower to contend for a wild-card spot. Mitch Moreland and Prince Fielder have formed a dangerous duo in the middle of the Texas lineup.
Texas must address its bullpen, however, if it's going to really make a move in the second half. Rangers relievers have the third-worst ERA in MLB.
The Rangers do have assets in the system and figure to be active over the next month. With a few tweaks to the bullpen and back end of the rotation, Texas should finish above .500 with a chance at a playoff spot.
Toronto Blue Jays
16 of 17
Current Record: 41-38
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 42-41
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 83-79
Our fourth and final AL East team with playoff aspirations is the Toronto Blue Jays.
After struggling early in the season, the Blue Jays reeled off 11 wins in a row to get themselves back in the race.
Toronto's impressive streak was due in large part to the best offense in baseball. Led by Josh Donaldson, the Blue Jays are the only team in the majors to crack 400 runs. Jose Bautista, Russell Martin and Edwin Encarnacion have also put together standout campaigns.
But if the Blue Jays are to continue their good play in the second half, the pitching staff must improve from top to bottom. Toronto's staff has the seventh-worst ERA in MLB and the worst among teams on this list.
Toronto figures to be active in its pursuit of pitching help over the next month. With an explosive offense, any improvements to the staff would make the Jays a dangerous team over the second half.
Washington Nationals
17 of 17
Current Record: 43-34
FanGraphs' Projected Rest-of-Season Record: 48-37
FanGraphs' Projected Record: 91-71
The Washington Nationals have overcome significant injury concerns and sit comfortably in first place in the National League East as we enter the second half.
Washington has lost Jayson Werth, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman and Denard Span to various ailments in 2015. But with the incredible first halves put together by Bryce Harper and Max Scherzer, the Nats have been able to manage those injuries.
Harper leads MLB in WAR, wRC+ and slugging percentage, while Scherzer leads MLB in pitching WAR and has a sub-2.00 ERA. With those two producing at such a high level, Washington has a legitimate chance to sweep the NL MVP/Cy Young awards this season.
FanGraphs expects the Nationals to improve dramatically in the second half. With players returning from injuries and multiple games against the unimpressive NL East, Washington should run away with the division over the next few months.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs and accurate as of 7/1.
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