NBA Free Agency 2015: Bold Predictions for Kevin Love, Monta Ellis and More
The NBA is going through a severe case of whiplash at this particular moment. Teams are trying to make final preparations for Thursday night's draft while at the same time looking at the upcoming slate of free agents that seems to get an additional member every hour as player options get declined.
It's a good time to be a basketball fan because so much information is coming out at a rapid pace. This is also going to be a huge summer because there are so many questions, such as how the impending salary-cap rise next year will change how players want deals structured.
Another thing that helps maintain the drama this summer is the number of marquee players available, from unrestricted free agents like Marc Gasol and LaMarcus Aldridge to restricted names like Kawhi Leonard and Jimmy Butler.
It leaves a lot of things to parse out, so here's a dive into where some of the notable names on the market are likely to end up.
Kevin Love, Age 26
Following an inconsistent season that ended with a shoulder injury against the Boston Celtics in the playoffs, Kevin Love decided to opt out of his deal with the Cleveland Cavaliers.
However, upon reporting the news, ESPN.com's Marc Stein noted the Cavaliers were expecting this move by Love.
"Sources told ESPN.com that Love notified the Cavaliers on Wednesday that he is opting out of the final year remaining on his contract -- worth $16.7 million next season -- to return to free agency.
The Cavaliers, though, were expecting the decision and, at this juncture, plan to try to re-sign the former All-Star forward...
"
The Cavaliers do have the luxury of being able to offer Love a bigger deal than another team, though that doesn't seem like it's going to dissuade others from taking a run at the 26-year-old.
If Love does return to Cleveland, it won't be thanks to any recruiting efforts from LeBron James, according to Chris Haynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer.
Stein also noted that two teams who were frequently linked to Love during the regular season figure to be in play now that he's officially a free agent and another team that could be seeking another scoring option:
"Sources tell ESPN.com that the Los Angeles Lakers and the Celtics are among the teams planning to make a run at Love in free agency. Sources say that the Portland Trail Blazers, furthermore, are likely to pursue the former Oregon high school star in the event that LaMarcus Aldridge -- as many league executives expect -- flees the Blazers in free agency.
"
Of the four teams that could pursue Love, the Cavaliers have the best roster and chance to compete for a title right away. Portland is not far behind in terms of raw talent, but playing in the loaded Western Conference makes it less appealing.
Boston is an intriguing fit for Love because it has a lot of salary-cap space with $40 million in commitments this year and $14.8 million in 2016-17, per HoopsHype.com. The Celtics also have a talented young coach in Brad Stevens paired with young talent like Marcus Smart and Avery Bradley.
The Los Angeles Lakers are going to get a lot of play because Love is from the area and played college basketball at UCLA.
In April, Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports reported the Lakers were the team to beat in the Love sweepstakes if he became a free agent, with Boston closing the gap:
"For as much as Kevin Love has publicly resisted the discussion of free agency this season, it has been on his mind. He has never been completely comfortable in Cleveland, with his role, nor his connection to those around him. Throughout the year, league sources say, one destination grew in possibility as his exit strategy: The Boston Celtics.
Boston has been no sure thing to lure Love, but it had a better shot than most had believed. If Love left the Cavaliers, the Celtics had closed the gap on the Los Angeles Lakers, league sources told Yahoo Sports.
"
Even with Love's connections to California and apparent love for the Celtics, the Cavaliers still stick out in this race.
Sure, Love has a chance to make money with Cleveland, but with the salary cap set to rise soon, he can structure a deal with a new team that would allow him to cash in next summer.
The reason Cleveland will retain Love is because it has to. The Cavaliers gave up Andrew Wiggins, who looked like a star as his rookie season went on, to acquire Love from Minnesota. They can't get one year from Love and let him walk knowing they could have had the 20-year-old star under control.
Prediction: Love re-signs with the Cavaliers
Monta Ellis, Age 29
Monta Ellis saved the Dallas Mavericks a lot of headaches by declining his player option for next season, his agent told Tim MacMahon and Chris Broussard of ESPN.com. The report also listed the Indiana Pacers and Miami Heat as potential suitors for the 29-year-old.
I say headaches because MacMahon reported on Wednesday the Mavericks were going to "explore trade scenarios" for Ellis if he exercised his option.
Even though Ellis comes with his share of baggage, he did have a solid season in Dallas last year. He led the Mavs with 18.9 points and tied for second with 4.1 assists per game. That does help his negotiating power this offseason.
Ira Winderman of the Miami Sun Sentinel speculated that the Heat's interest in Ellis could have something to do with the potential standoff between the team and Dwyane Wade:
"Those reports came amid the perceived impasse between the Heat and incumbent starting shooting guard Dwyane Wade, who will become a free agent on July 1 unless he invokes his opt-in clause by midnight Monday.
...
Even if Wade, 33, were to become a free agent and leave the Heat, the Heat would not be able to slot an $8.7 million contract into his place, due to the Heat's overall standing against the salary cap.
"
With those salary constraints facing the Heat, as well as needing to re-sign Goran Dragic, Indiana looks to have an edge. The Pacers have some room to play around, boasting just under $64 in commitments for next season and $30.6 million in 2016-17, per HoopsHype.com.
Indiana needs to find additional scoring options behind Paul George. George Hill is a solid shooter, but after that the Pacers lack impact. Ellis isn't a star but has proved to be very good in the right situation.
The Pacers will be back in the Eastern Conference playoff mix with George back at full strength. Ellis can be the strong complementary piece to get them back to the conference finals.
Prediction: Ellis signs with Pacers
Greg Monroe, Age 25
It's interesting to look at the NBA draft, with all the discussion around two centers in Karl-Anthony Towns and Jahlil Okafor, then contrast that with the lack of excitement around Greg Monroe.
That will likely change as free agency begins, as the big man averaged a double-double last season and is just 25 years old. It doesn't sound like Monroe will be returning to the Detroit Pistons, as head coach and team president Stan Van Gundy recently told reporters he was "not entirely optimistic" a deal would happen.
According to Gery Woelfel of the Racine Journal Times, the speculation has Monroe signing with either Boston or New York.
The Knicks have been a sinking ship for years, finally bottoming out last season with 17 wins. That does leave them with nowhere to go but up, starting with the fourth overall pick in Thursday's draft.
In April, prior to a game against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden, Monroe told Marc Berman of the New York Post that he would like to meet with Phil Jackson if the team is interested in signing him:
Monroe would be a nice addition to the Knicks' triangle offense, which was basically nonexistent last year because the roster was so sloppy. He gives them a much-needed presence in the paint that was gone when Tyson Chandler was traded to Dallas last summer.
A lot of those same needs apply to the Celtics as well. They need a player who can hang in the paint, especially on defense. NBA.com listed Boston's opponent's field-goal percentage at the rim at 53.9, third worst in the league.
Because the Celtics have two first-round draft picks, they can attempt to address their need for size in that way. If they don't, then Monroe (6'11", 253 lbs) makes sense as a top target.
Given how Monroe seems willing to speak with Jackson, the Knicks get the edge in the free-agent sweepstakes right now.
Prediction: Monroe signs with Pistons
