NBA Free Agents 2015: Predictions for LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol and More
With the NBA salary cap on the verge of exploding next summer, this year's top free agents have an important decision to make. They can take a long-term contract now for the security or take a short-term deal with less money now in the hopes of getting a lot more later.
It's a delicate balancing act, though an enviable position considering what's at stake. This is also a huge summer for free agents because of the star power available.
Even if LeBron James opts out of his deal with Cleveland, it would be stunning if he left the Cavaliers given the success the Cavaliers had and the way he returned to the franchise last year. Yet the names on the market will still include Jimmy Butler, Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge, Marc Gasol, Draymond Green and DeAndre Jordan, among others.
Expect teams to act quickly to get players to take their money with the hopes of competing for a championship in 2015-16, because the available talent warrants that kind of action.
Even though it's too early to know where players will end up, it's never too soon to start speculating based on information from around the Internet. Here are predictions for where this summer's top free agents will land.
| LaMarcus Aldridge | Portland Trail Blazers | Unrestricted Free Agent |
| Kawhi Leonard | San Antonio Spurs | Restricted Free Agent |
| Marc Gasol | Memphis Grizzlies | Unrestricted Free Agent |
| Draymond Green | Golden State Warriors | Restricted Free Agent |
| Jimmy Butler | Chicago Bulls | Restricted Free Agent |
| DeAndre Jordan | Los Angeles Clippers | Unrestricted Free Agent |
| Tim Duncan | San Antonio Spurs | Unrestricted Free Agent |
| Brandon Knight | Phoenix Suns | Restricted Free Agent |
| Danny Green | San Antonio Spurs | Unrestricted Free Agent |
| Greg Monroe | Detroit Pistons | Unrestricted Free Agent |
LaMarcus Aldridge, 2015-16 Age: 30 (Birthday on July 19)
Key Stat: 29.2 points per 100 possessions
The sense of panic hovering over the Pacific Northwest is coming from Portland. LaMarcus Aldridge has been one of the league's most consistent scorers, averaging over 20 points each of the last five years, and may want a new challenge away from the Trail Blazers.
In fact, according to ESPN.com's Brian Windhorst, Aldridge is one of the two biggest names likely to change teams this offseason.
"Of all of the high-profile free agents this summer, executives still believe (Kevin) Love and LaMarcus Aldridge are the likeliest to be willing to change teams," Windhorst wrote.
If that's the case, finding a home for Aldridge will be the summer's most intriguing storyline. ESPN.com's Marc Stein rattled off four suitors who will make a play for the 29-year-old:
"We know Knicks & Lakers will chase LaMarcus Aldridge come July, but at least two teams in Texas believe they have shot at him: Spurs & Mavs
— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) April 23, 2015"
New York and Los Angeles are so bad with so much money to spend that both will try throwing money at their problems, hoping something sticks. Yet the combination of money and winning right away comes from Dallas and San Antonio.
The Spurs are fascinating in this situation because they don't spend big money on free agents. They have spent to re-sign their own players and will have to do that again this summer with restricted free agent Leonard, but high-profile outsiders don't usually come in.
However, San Antonio's core nucleus of Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker are slowing down and won't be around much longer. Duncan is an unrestricted free agent, though the only way he'll leave the Spurs is if he opts to retire. Gregg Popovich has to start thinking about changes to keep his team competitive in the Western Conference.
The Mavericks have plenty of money to spend with just $43 million in commitments for next season, according to Hoops Hype, possibly more depending on player options for Monta Ellis and Raymond Felton, and Mark Cuban isn't afraid to take drastic action if he believes it will help his team win.
Because the Spurs haven't been keen on playing this game in the past, the Mavericks get a slight edge in the Aldridge sweepstakes, as things stand right now.
Prediction: Aldridge signs with Mavericks
Marc Gasol, 2015-16 Age: 30
Key Stat: Finished 15th with 21.7 Player Efficiency Rating in 2014-15
Gasol has been the face of Memphis' surge in the Western Conference.
The Grizzlies have made the playoffs the last five seasons running and won at least 50 games in the last three, as the star center has averaged at least 14 points and seven rebounds in each of the last four seasons.
Given how valuable Gasol is, as a previous Defensive Player of the Year winner and All-NBA First Team in 2014-15, it's not surprising the Grizzlies would want to keep the 30-year-old.
Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports reported after Jeff Green exercised his option to stay in Memphis that Gasol's contract was the No. 1 priority for the franchise:
"The Grizzlies will have a full training camp to incorporate Green into their system, with the franchise’s full attention turning to the re-signing of first-team All-NBA center Marc Gasol in July free agency. Gasol is expected to stay with the Grizzlies, but no final decision has been made, league sources told Yahoo Sports.
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The Grizzlies won't be alone in their pursuit of Gasol. All the way back in March, Sean Deveney of The Sporting News dropped this nugget about a suitor for the big man:
"For much of the year, a rumor has simmered that the Spurs are girding for the retirements of both Duncan and Ginobili, and, according to league sources, are prepared to chase hard after one of the top free agents on the market this summer: Grizzlies center Marc Gasol.
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Going back to what was said about the Spurs in their potential pursuit of Aldridge, they seem more likely than ever to play in the free-agent pool because of how old their stars are getting.
Gasol would be a nice fit with Popovich's tough, physical style, but the Grizzlies have the benefit of history with the 7-footer and ability to offer a bigger deal. Plus, Memphis has built a strong roster around Gasol that should continue to compete in the playoffs for the foreseeable future.
Prediction: Gasol re-signs with Grizzlies
DeAndre Jordan, 2015-16 Age: 27 (Birthday on July 21)
Key Stat: Led NBA with 71.1 Effective Field-Goal Percentage in 2014-15
Another big man who will be coveted, DeAndre Jordan is a unique candidate to get a huge contract because he is a dynamic defensive talent. There's certainly value in that, but he can also be a liability on offense with a 41.7 percent success rate from the free-throw line.
Yet Jordan isn't inept with the ball, leading the league in field-goal percentage each of the last three seasons. He plays under the basket and uses his size to get easy buckets, allowing him to shoot between 65-70 percent from the floor.
Another advantage that Jordan has over Gasol is age. He doesn't turn 27 until the end of July and figures to have more years left in his prime, though his limited skill set may not age as well as Gasol's has.
Los Angeles head coach Doc Rivers said after the Clippers' playoff loss against Houston that the team plans to offer Jordan a max contract, via ESPN's Arash Markazi:
Earlier in the playoffs, ESPN Dallas' Tim MacMahon reported that Jordan has given indications through various channels that he wouldn't mind if the Mavericks wanted to add him.
"Another potential prize summer target for the Mavs: Clippers center DeAndre Jordan, who multiple sources say has made it clear through back channels that he will be extremely interested in coming to Dallas," MacMahon wrote.
Because of Jordan's age, he could be a prime candidate to take a shorter deal this summer to wait out a big deal when the new television money kicks in after next season. He doesn't have to be concerned about injuries, having started every game for the Clippers since 2011-12.
Yet another season with teams' being able to pick apart the things Jordan doesn't do well could hurt his market value rather than help it. Based on Rivers' comments, he knows there will be at least one max offer waiting for him.
Why not take it, especially since the Clippers have been one of the league's best teams for the last three years and one win away from playing in the Western Conference Finals this season.
Prediction: Jordan re-signs with Clippers
Stats via Basketball-Reference.com.
