2015 NBA Mock Draft: Predictions for Most Enticing Prospects on Board
Mock drafts always pose the question of whether teams will play it safe and make the logical selection or whether they'll shake things up and surprise everyone.
Sometimes, they make the logical pick—their evaluations may be different from the public perception but ultimately make the most sense for their team—and sometimes, teams like to shake things up, take risks, chase their man no matter what the cost.
In this year's draft, there seems to be a logical progression of talent for teams to select on the board, namely in the first nine picks, where the talent is the most enticing for teams. The question will be, of course, whether the organizations with those picks stick to that script.
Here's how I think the draft will play out if every team stays put and plays it safe.
| 1 | Minnesota Timberwolves | Karl-Anthony Towns, PF, Kentucky |
| 2 | Los Angeles Lakers | Jahlil Okafor, C, Duke |
| 3 | Philadelphia 76ers | D’Angelo Russell, PG/SG, Ohio State |
| 4 | New York Knicks | Emmanuel Mudiay, PG, China |
| 5 | Orlando Magic | Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia |
| 6 | Sacramento Kings | Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Kentucky |
| 7 | Denver Nuggets | Justise Winslow, G/F, Duke |
| 8 | Detroit Pistons | Mario Hezonja, SF, Croatia |
| 9 | Charlotte Hornets | Stanley Johnson, SF, Arizona |
| 10 | Miami Heat | Sam Dekker, SF, Wisconsin |
| 11 | Indiana Pacers | Cameron Payne, PG, Murray State |
| 12 | Utah Jazz | Trey Lyles, PF, Kentucky |
| 13 | Phoenix Suns | Frank Kaminsky, C, Wisconsin |
| 14 | Oklahoma City Thunder | Kelly Oubre, SF, Kansas |
| End of Lottery | ||
| 15 | Atlanta Hawks (via Nets) | Myles Turner, PF, Texas |
| 16 | Boston Celtics | Kevon Looney, PF, UCLA |
| 17 | Milwaukee Bucks | Bobby Portis, PF, Arkansas |
| 18 | Houston Rockets (via Pelicans) | Jerian Grant, PG, Notre Dame |
| 19 | Washington Wizards | Devin Booker, SG, Kentucky |
| 20 | Toronto Raptors | Montrezl Harrell, PF, Louisville |
| 21 | Dallas Mavericks | R.J. Hunter, SG, Georgia State |
| 22 | Chicago Bulls | Delon Wright, PG, Utah |
| 23 | Portland Trail Blazers | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, SF/SG, Arizona |
| 24 | Cleveland Cavaliers | Justin Anderson, SF, Virginia |
| 25 | Memphis Grizzlies | Christian Wood, PF, UNLV |
| 26 | San Antonio Spurs | Tyus Jones, PG, Duke |
| 27 | Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets) | Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky |
| 28 | Boston Celtics (via Clippers) | Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas |
| 29 | Brooklyn Nets (via Hawks) | Jarell Martin, PF, LSU |
| 30 | Golden State Warriors | Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse |
Karl-Anthony Towns seems to make a bit more sense for the Minnesota Timberwolves than Jahlil Okafor. He's the better rim protector, he has a higher ceiling and his athleticism and versatility should pair perfectly with players like Ricky Rubio and Andrew Wiggins.
Okafor was always the best possible scenario for the Los Angeles Lakers, as he'll pair nicely with Julius Randle and give Kobe Bryant another talented big man to work with, so this selection is a no-brainer.
The Philadelphia 76ers need a point guard, and they need a perimeter scorer. D'Angelo Russell gives them both. The New York Knicks can afford to just take the best player on the board, and Emmanuel Mudiay will immediately make them better.
I highly doubt Kristaps Porzingis will drop past the Orlando Magic. His upside is just too tantalizing. That's where things could get interesting. The Sacramento Kings don't really need another wing but could use a true rim protector, making Willie Cauley-Stein a nice selection. From there, teams will make a run on the top wings on the board.
In general, that's how the lottery will play out if things stay boring.
Ah, but will they stay dull, or will teams wheel and deal? Here are two predictions for how things will get really interesting in the draft.
The Sixers Will Do Something Surprising
I'm not precisely sure what it will be, but the Sixers are going to shake things up at this draft. Maybe they'll take some of the future first-round picks they own and look to add a second top-10 selection. Perhaps they'll deal a big man like Joel Embiid or Nerlens Noel to add more picks in this draft. Maybe they'll take a player like Porzingis and really shake things up.
The latter possibility could set in motion a number of moves. If the Sixers feel like Porzingis fits better alongside Embiid and think he has a higher upside than Noel, it wouldn't be shocking to see them move Noel to get back into the top 10—heck, perhaps the top five—and, once again, deal a proven player for lesser-known commodities.
Embiid's situation could also have a ripple effect on what the 76ers front office decides to do. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo Sports reported last year's No. 3 pick suffered a setback in his recovery from the foot problems that caused him to miss all of the 2014-15 season.
Because the 76ers have Noel in place, they may be inclined to fulfill their need for a ball-handling guard who can score and distribute. Porzingis isn't an exact comparison for Embiid or Noel because he's a versatile shooter with size, but his height could present an intriguing option for the Sixers.
The city of Philadelphia may want to get the antacids ready now.
Most folks in Philly are likely hoping for Russell, as the team lacks a true scorer and perimeter threat. And that's still a very real possibility, even in the "trade Noel, draft Porzingis" scenario. But I just have the feeling that the Sixers are going to do something that moves the needle in this draft.
The Knicks Will Trade the No. 4 Pick
Drafting Mudiay would make plenty of sense for the Knicks. They could use a point guard, he's an explosive athlete who would pair nicely with Carmelo Anthony and he's likely to be the best player on the board at No. 4. But if the Knicks are going to try to rebuild a playoff contender on the fly, I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see them deal this pick for a more proven commodity.
According to Ian Begley of ESPN.com, the Knicks are interested in both Cameron Payne and Cauley-Stein, two very good prospects but both definite reaches at No. 4. That report suggests the Knicks are interested in moving down from No. 4, which of course suggests they might be willing to move their pick entirely.
Here's a fun scenario: Would the Knicks and Sixers each be happy with a deal that sends Noel to New York straight up for the No. 4 pick? The Knicks would get their rim protector and a big man and known commodity they lost out on when they dropped to fourth in the lottery. The Sixers could take both Russell and Porzingis, the latter a player who many believe would pair more naturally with Embiid if he's able to return.
Of any team in the lottery, the Knicks are the most likely to deal the No. 4 pick, even if they do so simply to move down a few slots in the draft. They'll be a fascinating team to follow during the process.
