Shocking 2015 MLB Starts It's Officially Time to Believe In
The 2015 MLB season is nearly two months old and there have been plenty of shocking starts.
Fans can debate all they want, but with almost 50 games of data to sift through, many of the surprising trends we've seen to begin the season may be here to stay.
The Minnesota Twins flirting with first place in the American League Central? The Miami Marlins floundering with one of the worst records in baseball? Chase Utley forgetting how to hit, A-Rod mashing like it's 2005 and Brandon Crawford becoming the game's best all-around shortstop?
If you predicted these events, take your talents to Vegas. Or stop lying.
Here we dive into some of the biggest stories of 2015 that are proving to be no fluke.
Dallas Keuchel
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Dallas Keuchel was phenomenal in a breakout season last year.
The left-hander posted a 2.93 ERA in 200 innings for the Houston Astros, winning 12 games in the process. While Keuchel proved he was capable of getting major league hitters out in 2014, he's proven much more this season.
Keuchel is 6-1 with a 1.98 ERA in 72.2 innings. The 27-year-old ranks sixth in the AL in pitching WAR and is third in ERA.
The southpaw has done so without overpowering stuff. Keuchel's average velocity is under 90 mph and he's striking out only 17.5 percent of the batters he's facing.
But Keuchel does a fantastic job of creating ground-ball contact. He boasts the third-highest ground-ball percentage in baseball and leads the majors in ground-ball-to-fly-ball ratio. His two-seam fastball does the job especially well, as hitters are putting the ball on the ground almost 80 percent of the time against it.
As far as continued success, Keuchel's formula should be easy to replicate. He pounds the lower part of the zone to create ground-ball contact. Considering Keuchel ranks third in soft contact and fourth in hard contact, those grounders are going to end up as outs more times than not.
Keuchel has gone from a seventh-round pick to a front-runner for the AL Cy Young Award in the blink of an eye. While he flashed signs last season, nobody could have predicted he'd be this dominant in 2015. The good news for Houston? It's no fluke.
Brandon Crawford
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Brandon Crawford has been a solid major leaguer since his first full season in 2012. He's been a key cog in two World Series titles for the San Francisco Giants, coming up big in important spots during those championship runs.
But 2015 has seen the 28-year-old stake his claim as the best all-around shortstop in baseball.
Crawford is slashing .301/.376/.500 with six homers, 33 RBI and 146 wRC+. He leads all MLB shortstops in WAR, wRC+, on-base percentage and RBI.
Crawford has taken the next stop offensively due to surges in his hard-contact rate and home run-to-fly-ball ratio and a significant decrease in fly-ball percentage. In the cavernous confines of AT&T Park, Crawford's ability to hit the ball hard on a downward plane is resulting in elite production.
With those numbers at the plate, some players might see their defense suffer.
But not Crawford, as he continues to be one of the top defenders at the game's premier position. Since 2012, Crawford ranks fourth in defensive runs saved among shortstops. In 2015, he's second in that department, trailing only defensive whiz Andrelton Simmons.
Solid player? Sure. Fantastic defender? You bet.
But best all-around shortstop in the game? Even the most fanatic Giants fans couldn't have foreseen that. But it's happening, and Crawford is showing no signs of slowing down.
Alex Rodriguez
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Love him or hate him—well, probably just hate him—Alex Rodriguez is one of baseball's greatest all-time hitters.
Everybody has an opinion on A-Rod, but it's hard to believe anyone saw his 2015 offensive outburst coming. At 39, coming off a year-long suspension due to another scandal involving performance-enhancing drugs, could anyone have predicted that Rodriguez would be among the top run producers in baseball?
Well, that's exactly what's happened. Rodriguez is slashing .277/.369/.553 with 11 homers and 27 RBI. A-Rod ranks sixth in the AL in isolated power, seventh in slugging and eighth in wRC+. More importantly, he's played in 46 of 49 games on the year.
Rodriguez is tattooing everything this season. His 10 percent mark in soft contact is the eighth-best in baseball, while his 43.3 percent hard-contact percentage is good for the highest mark in the game. With 90 percent of his contact registering as either medium or hard, it's possible that his .303 average on balls in play is unlucky.
In a wide-open AL East, Rodriguez will be a huge factor in how the New York Yankees finish. His talent has never been questioned, but to be able to put together the type of season he's having at his age is impressive.
"What we're left with is a near 40-year-old ballplayer with some skills yet, who has overcome the self-inflicted misfortunes of his past to become a real and productive ballplayer again," Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports wrote.
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Chase Utley
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It's not completely crazy for a 36-year-old veteran to show signs of regression at the dish.
But of the likely candidates, Chase Utley would've been at the bottom of the list, especially when you consider just how ugly his 2015 has been.
Utley is slashing .183/.260/.294 with just three homers and 21 RBI. In all of baseball, he has the third-worst WAR, batting average and wRC+ and fourth-worst slugging percentage.
We're talking about one of the most consistent hitters of this generation here. From 2005 to 2014, Utley never posted a wRC+ lower than his 106 mark last season.
So what gives? Utley's line-drive rate has fallen under 20 percent, while he's seen drastic changes in the type of contact he's making:
- 2014: soft contact: 13.1 percent; medium contact: 56.5 percent; hard contact: 30.4 percent
- 2015: soft contact: 19.2 percent; medium contact: 61.5 percent; hard contact: 19.2 percent
- Career: soft contact: 14.2 percent; medium contact: 50.8 percent; hard contact: 35 percent
It's clear that Utley's not hitting the ball nearly as hard this season as he has in years past. He's also seen a significant dip in production against lefties, which presents a glaring weakness in late-game situations.
Utley was always going to regress with age, but this nightmare is completely out of the blue. He's swung the bat better as of late, but there are too many red flags to think he'll be able to push his numbers to respectable totals.
Miami Marlins
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The Miami Marlins were a trendy pick to contend in the NL East this season. With Giancarlo Stanton leading a host of talented youngsters, the Fish figured to be players in the playoff picture.
Fast-forward two months into the season and Miami couldn't be in a worse position. The Marlins sit just a half-game ahead of the last-place Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East and have already fired manager Mike Redmond.
Instead of vetting a slew of qualified candidates, Miami decided to insert general manager Dan Jennings into its open managerial position. With no prior experience, the Jennings decision reeks of desperation and ignorance.
"Managerial changes will always be part of baseball, but when you hire someone whose lone coaching experience consists of a stint at Davidson High School in Mobile, Alabama, 30 years ago it takes on a different flavor," Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote.
Jennings is considered a shrewd talent evaluator, but selecting him to lead the product on the field is the latest baffling move by the Miami brass.
As for that product on the field, Miami ranks 25th in runs despite standout seasons from Stanton and Dee Gordon. The Marlins miss ace Jose Fernandez, as Mat Latos and Jarred Cosart have yet to live up to expectations.
On paper, the Marlins have buckets of talent. But with a lack of chemistry and competency at the top of the organization, it's hard to see Miami climbing back into the NL playoff race.
Jeurys Familia
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Jeurys Familia made an impact in the New York Mets bullpen in 2014. The right-hander appeared in 76 games, posting a 2.21 ERA and striking out more than eight batters per nine innings.
After an injury to Bobby Parnell and the suspension of Jenrry Mejia, Familia was thrust into the ninth-inning role this season. For a team loaded with starting pitching talent, being able to close out games was suddenly a concern.
But Familia has answered the bell to become one of the top closers in the National League.
The 25-year-old is 14-for-15 in save opportunities with a 1.54 ERA. Familia has increased his strikeout percentage from 22.7 to 32.6, while decreasing his walk rate from 9.9 to 7.0 percent. He ranks 10th among NL relievers in ERA and is tied for third in saves.
Familia's stuff is filthy. He sits in the upper 90s with his heater, but relies heavily on his sinker. That sinker averages in the mid-90s and creates ground-ball contact nearly 70 percent of the time. Throw in a wipeout slider that boasts a strikeout rate over 56 percent, and you have the repertoire of a lockdown closer.
Familia's good work has him oozing with confidence.
"I don’t know that there’s a limit on confidence in any job, but I would say mine must be pretty [high], and I think that’s the key to my success lately," he told Steve Serby of the New York Post. "If someone gets a home run against me, or it’s a bad pitch, I just let it go pretty quickly and move on."
The Mets knew they had a solid reliever in Familia, but to have such a quality ninth-inning option after the disappointing events at the beginning of the season has to be a bit of a surprise. With that being said, Familia may have been the best option to finish off games all along.
Minnesota Twins
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Of all the shocking starts to the 2015 MLB season, the Minnesota Twins have to top the list.
With June nearly upon us, the Twins find themselves just one game back of the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central and a game behind the Royals and Houston Astros for the best record in the AL.
Outside of Minnesota, casual fans would be hard-pressed to name multiple Twins. But that hasn't deterred the club from surprising the rest of the league.
Under new manager Paul Molitor, Minnesota is tied for seventh in baseball in runs scored. Led by Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe, the Twins are competing without a true offensive star. Joe Mauer has performed like a replacement-level hitter, while 2014 breakout star Danny Santana has regressed in amazing fashion.
The more interesting development in Minnesota, however, has been with the starting pitching.
It hasn't been great, but the rotation has held its own after losing Ervin Santana to suspension before the season started. Kyle Gibson has enjoyed a breakout season, while Mike Pelfrey has been nothing but consistent. Trevor May and Ricky Nolasco may each carry a high ERA, but both have respectable FIPs.
Mix in the bullpen mastery of closer Glen Perkins and solid performances from Blaine Boyer, Aaron Thompson and J.R. Graham, and this squad has the makings of a team that's much better than was expected.
Now, can the Twins compete with the Royals and Detroit Tigers all season and ultimately claim the AL Central? There's reason to still be skeptical. In a loaded division that also includes the underachieving Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Indians, Minnesota's going to have its work cut out the rest of the way.
But with multiple top prospects inching toward the big leagues and a roster already exceeding expectations, why can't Minnesota remain in the hunt for one of the two wild-card spots?
With two months of data in the books, it's hard to argue against the Twins.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs. Stats accurate as of May 29.
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