Crucial MLB Questions Left Unanswered After Season's First 50 Games
With the calendar set to turn over to June, we are roughly 50 games into the 2015 MLB season.
While there is still a ton of baseball to be played, things are starting to take shape as far as who will be in a position to contend and which teams will need to address certain shortcomings when the trade deadline rolls around.
There are also a ton of questions left to be answered, and that is the focus here, whether it be on individual players, teams off to a hot start or what we might expect once the trade market heats up.
Will Taijuan Walker Figure Things out and Reach His Vast Potential?
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The future has looked incredibly bright for Taijuan Walker ever since the Seattle Mariners selected him with the No. 43 overall pick in the 2010 draft, and the 2015 season was supposed to be his coming-out party.
Instead, the 22-year-old has struggled mightily through his first 10 starts of the season, going 2-5 with a 6.18 ERA that ranks 118th out of the 123 pitchers who have thrown at least 40 innings on the year.
On paper, the biggest difference this year has been the effectiveness of his splitter, a pitch that he uses second most behind his fastball.
Let's take a look at the pitch's effectiveness last year compared to this year, courtesy of Brooks Baseball:
- 2014: 131 total, .206 BAA, .265 SLG, 7 H, 8 K
- 2015: 132 total, .447 BAA, .605 SLG, 17 H, 10 K
At this point it looks to just be a matter of Walker fine-tuning some things and getting through not having his best stuff, and the Mariners appear ready to give him every chance to do just that.
Manager Lloyd McClendon purposely avoided making a visit to the mound when his young pitcher got into trouble during the fifth inning of his last start, instead opting to see how he'd handle the situation.
"I wanted to see what he’s going to do. At some point, you have to stop enabling him. He has to figure it out, so to speak," McClendon told Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. "It’s not a matter of having him drown or sink or swim, just grow up a little bit. Figure it out, let’s see if he can slow it down and get out of it."
The Mariners have fallen short of lofty expectations so far this season, but they are by no means out of it in a wide-open AL West race. Walker getting things going would be a big step toward turning things around.
Can Matt Cain Be the Answer in the San Francisco Giants' Rotation?
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After playing a vital role in the San Francisco Giants' 2010 and 2012 World Series title runs, starting pitcher Matt Cain was relegated to spectator last October.
The 30-year-old right-hander, who signed a six-year, $127.5 million extension prior to the 2012 season, made just 15 starts in 2014 before landing on the disabled list with elbow problems in July.
That eventually led to season-ending surgery to remove bone chips from the elbow, which was followed by surgery on his ankle to remove a bone spur.
Despite that time spent under the knife, the hope was that the three-time All-Star would be ready to once again join Madison Bumgarner atop the rotation to begin the 2015 season, but instead he has yet to make his season debut.
A flexor tendon strain sent Cain to the disabled list to start the season, and he has been on the rehab trail since, facing live hitters for the first time Tuesday with a 25-pitch session.
"He really had a good session," Giants manager Bruce Bochy told Andrew Baggarly of CSN Bay Area. "He threw everything. He ran counts on hitters. He got signs from the catcher. I thought he had really good stuff—good curve and slider."
At this point, the hope is that he can return before the All-Star break, but barring any setbacks he could be back even sooner.
With Jake Peavy also sidelined, Chris Heston going through some ups and downs after an impressive start to his big league career and Tim Hudson looking very much like a 39-year-old in the twilight of his career, he'll be a welcome addition to the Giants staff whenever he does make it back to San Francisco.
How Does Javier Baez Fit into the Chicago Cubs' Plans?
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With all of the hype surrounding the young trio of Kris Bryant, Jorge Soler and Addison Russell, it's easy to forget that it was Javier Baez who ranked as the top prospect in the Chicago Cubs system heading into last season, according to Baseball America.
Baez was also the first of that group to reach the big leagues, debuting on Aug. 5 to great fanfare. He launched the game-winning home run in extra innings in his debut then turned in his first multi-homer game two days later.
Things quickly went south for the free-swinging Baez, however, and when the dust settled on the 2014 season, he had posted a .169/.227/.324 line with nine home runs and 20 RBI in 213 at-bats.
The most troubling stat was his 95 strikeouts, which works out to a dizzying 41.5 percent strikeout rate, and that lack of offensive polish was enough for the Cubs to send him to the minors to start the 2015 season.
Fast-forward two months, and the 22-year-old is hitting .284/.362/.471 with four doubles, five home runs and 18 RBI in 102 at-bats for Triple-A Iowa. More importantly, he's only struck out 31 times or a far more acceptable 30.4 percent of the time.
So could a call-up be in the cards in the near future?
"All we're concerned about right now is him maintaining this," head of player development Jason McLeod told Patrick Mooney of CSN Chicago. "Certainly, he's someone who wants to come up here and help the team win. And Joe, Theo, we’re all looking at that every single day. Those are conversations that take place internally every day."
The bigger question is: Where does Baez fit once he does return to Chicago?
With Russell and Starlin Castro manning the middle infield spots, it would appear that either Baez or Bryant may be ticketed for left field, but the team is not tipping its hand on those plans at this point.
Regardless, it's a good problem to have, and once the Cubs think his bat is ready, they'll find a way to work Baez into the mix.
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What's Wrong with Stephen Strasburg?
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The Washington Nationals were supposed to have a rotation to rival any in recent memory this season after the addition of Max Scherzer, and while it's been solid (3.82 ERA, 11th in MLB), a struggling Stephen Strasburg has left them well short of expectations.
It looked like the 26-year-old might finally be ready to take his game to an elite level heading into 2015, on the heels of a terrific 2014 season that saw him finish ninth in NL Cy Young voting.
He finished the year 14-11 with a 3.14 ERA (2.94 FIP), 1.121 WHIP and an NL-best 242 strikeouts in a career-high 215 innings of work.
Squaring off against Matt Harvey to open the season, Strasburg took the loss by allowing nine hits and six runs (three earned) in 5.1 innings of work, and he has yet to get things going since.
The former No. 1 overall pick currently sits at 3-5 with a 6.55 ERA, and he has managed just one quality starts in nine appearances.
So what's wrong?
His velocity has not fallen off at all, and he's certainly had some bad luck with a .389 BABIP and a 3.97 FIP (via FanGraphs), but that's not entirely to blame.
Hitters are simply putting the bat on the ball with a lot more frequency this season, as opposing hitters' contact rate has spiked from 76.3 percent to 84.4 percent (via FanGraphs), and that's a matter of command.
A recent article from Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs pointed to a mechanical issue as the potential source of Strasburg's early struggles, so maybe it's as simple as ironing out a few things, and he'll be back to form.
Will the Cole Hamels-to-Boston Trade Happen?
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Each season, there seems to be at least one MLB trade rumor that simply won't die.
This year, that honor undoubtedly goes to a potential Cole Hamels-to-Boston deal that has been talked about ever since the Red Sox missed out on re-signing Jon Lester during the winter meetings.
The logic of the deal is sound on both sides.
The Red Sox rotation is struggling and lacks a bona fide ace to lead the way, while the Phillies have finally committed to rebuilding and are searching for high-end young talent, something the Red Sox have plenty of in a loaded farm system.
However, the Phillies have continued to ask for the moon in exchange for their best player and most valuable trade chip, while the Red Sox hold strong in their unwillingness to move certain young players.
So who blinks first?
The correct answer may wind up being no one. While it would kick start their rebuild, the Phillies don't have to trade Hamels at the deadline or even this season. The Red Sox would love a controllable arm like Hamels, but there are other options on the market (Johnny Cueto, Scott Kazmir, Mat Latos, Jeff Samardzija) that could help in the short term.
It's a trade that will continue to be talked about in the days and weeks leading up to the July 31 deadline—there is no doubt about that—but for now it remains nothing more than a rumor.
Will the Colorado Rockies Finally Pull the Trigger on Trading Troy Tulowitzki?
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"We're not trying to trade him. There's no story there," Colorado Rockies owner Dick Monfort told Jon Morosi of Fox Sports in reference to star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki.
That's probably the right thing to say here in May before the trade market really heats up, but as far as the long-term success of the franchise is concerned, it may be time to pull the trigger.
The question is: Just how much is Tulowitzki worth?
When he's healthy and productive, the face of the franchise is still capable of being the best all-around shortstop in the game, but those times have been few and far between over the past few seasons.
Since the start of the 2012 season, he's missed a combined 213 games due to injury, according to Baseball Prospectus. That includes a hip injury that ended his season last year in July.
While he's been healthy so far this season, his production is down, as he's hitting .285/.303/.456 with 15 doubles, four home runs and 20 RBI.
By comparison, on this date last year, he was hitting .360/.462/.686 with 12 doubles, 14 home runs and 37 RBI and looking like the early front-runner for NL MVP honors.
Aside from the slow start and lengthy injury history, there is also the matter of the $94 million he is owed over the next five years.
There are certainly a lot of moving parts when it comes to a potential Tulowitzki trade, but for a Colorado Rockies franchise in desperate need of a change, this could be the year it finally happens.
What Will the Texas Rangers' Rotation Look Like in the 2nd Half?
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After dealing with one injury after another in 2014 on their way to a 95-loss season, the Texas Rangers entered spring training looking like one of the more promising bounce-back candidates in the league.
Most notably, the offseason additions of Yovani Gallardo and Ross Detwiler to a rotation that already featured Yu Darvish and Derek Holland had the pitching staff looking like a legitimate strength.
That is, until injuries struck once again.
Before the team broke camp, Darvish was already lost for the season to Tommy John surgery. Just one inning into his season debut, Holland joined him when his shoulder flared up once again.
Those losses would be tough for any team to overcome, but add to it the fact that the Rangers were already without Matt Harrison, Martin Perez and Nick Tepesch, and it goes way beyond bad luck.
Yet despite having an entire starting rotation on the disabled list, the Rangers are holding their own, sitting at 24-25 heading into play Saturday.
Gallardo and veteran Colby Lewis have provided stability at the top of the rotation, but it's the contributions of guys like Nick Martinez (10 GS, 4-1, 2.03 ERA) and Wandy Rodriguez (7 GS, 2-2, 3.60 ERA) that have made the difference.
So the question becomes: Can the Rangers' patchwork rotation keep the team afloat long enough for some of their injured arms to get healthy?
Let's run through a quick update of the guys with a chance to come back and contribute this year.
- Harrison: No pitcher has ever come back from spinal fusion surgery, but Harrison could become the first before the season is over. He threw 77 pitches over five innings in an extended spring training game on Thursday, and he could begin a rehab assignment next week, according to Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News.
- Holland: On the mend from a subscapular strain in his throwing shoulder, Holland threw for the first time on Thursday since suffering the injury. He made 20 throws from 60 feet, according to Grant, in the first step toward returning to the mound.
- Perez: Perez underwent Tommy John surgery May 19 of last season, so he's a little over a year removed from the procedure. He's on track to make his first rehab start at extended spring training on June 5, according to Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram.
- Tepesch: Sidelined since spring training with elbow inflammation, Tepesch began a throwing program back on May 11, according to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com.
Help is on the way—it's just a matter of whether the Rangers can stay in contention in the meantime.
How Aggressively Will the Milwaukee Brewers Sell?
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At 16-33 on the season, and in a division that looks to have three legitimate contenders, it's fair to call the Milwaukee Brewers one of the few teams that are clear-cut sellers entering the month of June.
So who can we expect to be made available between now and the July trade deadline?
Kyle Lohse and Gerardo Parra would appear to be near certainties to be moved, as both players are in the final year of their contracts, and both would likely be of interest to at least a few contenders.
Third baseman Aramis Ramirez is also a free agent at the end of the season and has already announced his plans to retire when the year comes to an end, but he too could be of interest for a team looking to add some right-handed pop.
The player who could garner the most interest and seems like a safe bet to be shopped is first baseman Adam Lind. He's strictly a platoon guy, but he rakes against right-handed pitching, and he comes with the added value of being more than just a rental player with an $8 million option for next season.
Closer Francisco Rodriguez is also signed for a reasonable $5.5 million next season with a $6 million option for 2017, and he could be one of the top relief arms on the market.
Those five players will almost certainly hit the trade block, but beyond them is where things get interesting.
All-star center fielder Carlos Gomez is not putting up great numbers, but with free agency coming up after the 2016 season and the Brewers unlikely to shell out the money to sign him long-term, he could bring a big return.
Meanwhile, Ryan Braun is enjoying a nice bounce-back season and again producing at an elite level. He's owed $96 million over the next five years, and he's already 31 years old, but he'd make a real difference in the middle of a contender's lineup.
Catcher Jonathan Lucroy, shortstop Jean Segura and right-hander Jimmy Nelson might be the only players on the roster right now who could be deemed "untouchable," so it will be an interesting trade season in Milwaukee.
Are the Minnesota Twins for Real?
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The AL Central was expected to be a dogfight this season, with everyone but the Minnesota Twins viewed as legitimate contenders for the division title or at least a wild-card berth.
Two months into the season, the division has indeed been a battle, but the Twins are very much in the thick of things with a 28-19 record.
Pitching has been the biggest issue for the Twins on their way to four straight 90-loss seasons, specifically in the starting rotation.
Let's take a quick look at where their starters' ERA ranks the past four seasons compared to this year:
- 2011: 4.64 ERA, 26th in MLB
- 2012: 5.40 ERA, 29th in MLB
- 2013: 5.26 ERA, 30th in MLB
- 2014: 5.06 ERA, 30th in MLB
- 2015: 4.03 ERA, 13th in MLB
The Twins' rotation may not be a bona fide strength just yet, but it's no longer an anchor on their chances of contending, and that's showing up in the standings.
Kyle Gibson (9 GS, 4-3, 2.72 ERA) and Mike Pelfrey (9 GS, 4-1, 2.77 ERA) have formed a surprisingly good pair, and a healthy Ricky Nolasco has pitched much better of late.
Behind the improved rotation is a bullpen that ranks 20th in the league with a 3.89 ERA and has nailed down 19 of 22 save chances.
Closer Glen Perkins (18/18 SV, 1.96 ERA) has been fantastic, while Blaine Boyer (23 G, 9 HLD, 2.28 ERA) has been terrific setting him up.
Offensively, this team was better than a lot of people realized last year, ranking seventh in the majors with 4.41 runs per game. Minnesota essentially has the same group back, with Torii Hunter added to the mix, and it's upped production to 4.6 runs per game.
Add to all of that the fact that top prospects Byron Buxton (.836 OPS, 23 XBH, 14 SB), Miguel Sano (.835 OPS, 9 HR, 30 RBI) and Jose Berrios (6-2, 2.84 ERA, 9.9 K/9) are tearing it up in Double-A, and there's a lot to like about the Twins moving forward.
Are the Houston Astros for Real?
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No team in recent MLB history has undergone a rebuild as drastic as what the Houston Astros have gone through the past few seasons.
From a payroll as high as $102.9 million in 2009 all the way down to $26.1 million in 2013 (via Cot's Baseball Contracts), the organization completely blew up the roster and rebuilt from the ground up.
While a 92-loss season would be a disaster for some teams, it marked a 19-win improvement for the Astros last year, and that step forward appears to have been the jumping-off point for a terrific start here in 2015.
With a 30-19 record, Houston is in a virtual tie with the Kansas City Royals for the best record in the American League, and its plus-25 run differential is second only to the Royals (plus-50) and Toronto Blue Jays (plus-27).
The offense has been something of an enigma, albeit an effective one that currently ranks 10th in the majors with 4.41 runs per game.
The Astros are hitting .235 as a team, second-worst in MLB, and lead the AL with 448 strikeouts, but they have also hit an MLB-high 66 home runs on the season.
There is no question the biggest area of improvement has been in the bullpen, thanks in large part to the offseason additions of Luke Gregerson, Will Harris and Pat Neshek.
Last year's relief corps put up an MLB-worst 4.80 ERA and converted just 31 of 56 save chances.
This year, it ranks third in the majors with a 2.27 ERA, and has nailed down 19 of 24 save chances.
The biggest question mark is in the starting rotation, where this team still appears to be one front-line arm away from being a serious postseason contender.
Dallas Keuchel (6-1, 1.98 ERA, 0.963 WHIP) has been as good as any pitcher in the league, and it looks like Collin McHugh and rookie Lance McCullers have a chance to form a solid duo behind him.
Veterans Roberto Hernandez (4.77 ERA) and Scott Feldman (4.80 ERA) have been mediocre at best, though, and it will be interesting to see just how aggressive this team is come July.
At any rate, the Astros are a vastly improved team here in 2015, and the best is yet to come with more star power on the way, led by shortstop Carlos Correa.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference unless otherwise noted.
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