Daily Fantasy Baseball 2015: MLB DraftKings Studs and Duds for May 25
To celebrate Memorial Day, all 30 MLB teams will take the field on Monday. The week usually starts with scarce offerings, but the holiday is loaded with mouth-watering options, mostly on the offensive side.
For all the choices out there, few, if any, are aces. The best pitcher in a vacuum, Dallas Keuchel, gets a tough matchup in the Baltimore Orioles. Tyson Ross, the day's priciest choice, brings his 4.96 walks per nine innings outside of Petco Park.
This is a slate to fade the marquee aces and save money on offensive studs. Play your cards right, and you'll pocket enough dough to barbecue all summer long.
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Pitchers
Early Stud: Bartolo Colon, New York Mets ($7,200) vs. PHI
How quickly everyone forgets. One of the season's hottest starters, Bartolo Colon now plummets down DraftKings' price catalog following two dreadful starts.
Colon, who turned 42 on Sunday, surrendered 15 runs (13 earned) during his past two outings. The contact-inducing veteran is prone to his share of blow-up outings, but his recent shortcomings don't increase the odds of another. His opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies, own baseball's third-worst OPS against right-handed pitchers.
The New York Mets are falling apart after an unsustainable hot start, but Severino Gonzalez gives their offense a fighting chance of generating enough runs to snap a three-game losing streak. With everyone sprinting from the Mets' bandwagon, Colon makes a sneaky tournament play given his great matchup and 15.33 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
Late Stud: Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays ($8,000) vs. SEA
DraftKings must be worried about the Seattle Mariners taking Jake Odorizzi deep. Led by Nelson Cruz, they've hit 54 home runs, which doesn't fully excuse a .297 team on-base percentage. Although the Tampa Bay Rays stud has surrendered two dingers all year, his 3.0 home run-fly ball percentage is too low to last.
Still, this is a pitcher with a 2.43 ERA and 2.57 fielding independent pitching (FIP) who costs an affordable $8,000. His 6.98 strikeouts-per-nine-innings ratio is underwhelming, but the 25-year-old fanned over a batter per inning during his rookie season.
Blame the Atlanta Braves, who struck out just two times during Odorizzi's last start. With a 17.3 strikeout percentage, they're one of the toughest teams in baseball to punch out. He'll have a strong day as long as he keeps Seattle from going yard.
Dud: Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels ($8,500) vs. SD
How quickly everyone forgets. (See, I forgot I already used this line.) A couple of decent starts, and DraftKings is banking on everyone ignoring Jered Weaver's overall awful season.
After allowing four runs through his last 23.1 innings, the veteran righty has reduced his ERA all the way to 4.37. He deserves props for pitching well against the Orioles and Toronto Blue Jays—both on the road—but he still sports a 4.71 FIP.
More importantly, he has amassed 28 strikeouts during 57.2 innings. Closer David Robertson has earned 29 strikeouts in 18.1 frames. Corey Kluber has compiled 37 punchouts since May 13.
The San Diego Padres were freezing cold entering Sunday. Then they scored 10 runs in four innings against popular pick Carlos Frias. They're not abysmal enough to pay a premium for someone with an average fastball velocity of 83.9 miles per hour.
Hitting Studs
Kansas City Royals vs. New York Yankees (RHP Nathan Eovaldi)
Despite his strong arm, Nathan Eovaldi remains hittable, yielding a 25.2 line-drive percentage and 36.2 hard-hit percentage. The Kansas City Royals, who have blossomed from scrawny contact hitters to all-around monsters who still don't strike out, get to party against him in Yankee Stadium.
That puts four Kansas City hitters on the radar for a possible three-man stack:
| 1B Eric Hosmer | 112 | .337 | .402 | .594 | $4,900 |
| 1B Kendrys Morales | 113 | .283 | .363 | .545 | $4,500 |
| 3B Mike Moustakas | 104 | .368 | .417 | .526 | $4,400 |
| OF Alex Gordon | 103 | .302 | .408 | .500 | $4,500 |
With a 48.3 pull percentage, Alex Gordon is an especially nice bet to exploit Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch. Lefties are hitting .368/.435/.553 against Eovaldi, who has a .940 opposing OPS at home this season.
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals (RHP Jeremy Guthrie)
The Bronx Bombers also provide stack appeal against Jeremy Guthrie, who has surrendered a .478 career slugging percentage against lefties. The soft-tossing righty won't have fun facing the Yankees inside Yankee Stadium.
| 1B Mark Teixeira | .891 | .954 | $4,500 |
| 3B Alex Rodriguez | .878 | .927 | $4,300 |
| C Brian McCann | .970 | .725 | $4,000 |
Unfortunately, gamers can't load up on both offenses. Mark Teixeira and Alex Rodriguez are cheaper than Eric Hosmer and Mike Moustakas, and Guthrie has registered a 4.75 ERA and 3.42 K/9 rate this season.
C Stephen Vogt ($4,000) and OF Josh Reddick ($4,400) vs. DET (RHP Shane Greene)
Opposing lefties are pounding Shane Greene (.311/.372/.471) this season. Stephen Vogt and Josh Reddick have pounded righties all year, and a recent funk makes the catcher extra affordable for the matchup playing right to his hand.
OF David Murphy ($3,400), Cleveland Indians vs. TEX (RHP Phil Klein)
David Murphy is paid to hit righties, and he's currently batting .330/.362/.489 this season with all but one at-bat against a right-hander. The Cleveland Indians position him in the heart of a lefty-loaded lineup, and the Texas Rangers send untested righty Phil Klein to the mound on Monday afternoon.
Chris Colabello almost earned this spot, but the identically priced outfielder has benefited from an entirely unsustainable .533 batting average on balls in play (BABIP). The Toronto Blue Jays, however, join Cleveland as one of several teams worthy of stacking consideration against the Chicago White Sox's Hector Noesi.
OF Justin Upton ($4,400), San Diego Padres vs. LAA (RHP Jered Weaver)
This has little to do with Justin Upton's six-RBI Sunday. Before hitting a grand slam, he sported a .912 OPS against righties.
As discussed above, Weaver is not very good despite his bite-sized hot streak. If anything, yesterday's heroics ruin the value, as now everyone else is on board.
Hitting Dud
2B Brian Dozier ($4,800), Minnesota Twins vs. BOS (RHP Joe Kelly)
Many daily players will ride Brian Dozier's hot bat at $4,800 after he homered five times over the last seven games. Yet the price is steep for someone who fares much better against southpaws, especially when two other studs land lucrative matchups.
For those willing to invest in an elite second baseman, pay $300 more for Jason Kipnis or Jose Altuve. Kipnis gets a questionable righty in Klein, and Altuve—who's hitting .380 against southpaws—will tee off against lefty Wei-Yin Chen.
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All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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