Updated Win/Loss Projections for Every MLB Team at the One-Quarter Mark
Where does the time go?
We're already a quarter of the way through the 2015 MLB regular season. There's been both surprises and disappointments in the season's first month, so let's update each team's projected record as it stands today.
Teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, Washington Nationals and Detroit Tigers remain at the top of FanGraphs' projected standings, while the Philadelphia Phillies, Milwaukee Brewers and Colorado Rockies sit firmly in the cellar.
Not only will we update each organization's anticipated finish, we'll lay out what each team must do to exceed their expected win totals.
Let's get started out West.
Arizona Diamondbacks
1 of 30
Current Record: 17-21
Projected Record: 73-89
The Skinny
Led by sluggers Paul Goldschmidt, Mark Trumbo and Yasmany Tomas, the Arizona Diamondbacks rank in the top 10 in runs scored in baseball this season.
In order for the Snakes to finish closer to .500, they'll need improved pitching performances. Chase Anderson and Archie Bradley have been pleasant surprises, but Josh Collmenter, Jeremy Hellickson and Rubby de le Rosa must all throw better to support the offense.
Arizona currently has a winning record against teams from the National League West and must continue to compete in a tough division in order to exceed its projected win total.
Atlanta Braves
2 of 30
Current Record: 18-20
Projected Record: 74-88
The Skinny
The Atlanta Braves didn't have high expectations entering the season but have shown flashes of a team closer to contending than previously thought.
After trading away three key offensive pieces, the Braves actually rank 15th in runs scored, 11th in average and 10th in on-base percentage. But those numbers figure to fall at some point, especially with players like Kelly Johnson and A.J. Pierzynski playing prominent roles in the Atlanta lineup.
If there is a lull offensively, the Braves must be better at the mound. Julio Teheran has been a huge disappointment, there is uncertainty at the back end of the rotation, and the bullpen has the sixth-worst ERA in the league.
Baltimore Orioles
3 of 30
Current Record: 17-19
Projected Record: 78-84
The Skinny
The Baltimore Orioles failed to replace Nelson Cruz and Nick Markakis in the lineup, and it's been an issue for the club in the season's early months.
Aside from Adam Jones, the O's have received little production from the rest of the offense. Travis Snider, Steve Pearce, J.J. Hardy, Alejandro De Aza, Everth Cabrera and Delmon Young all have a wRC+ under 100.
The disappointing offense is a shame, because the Baltimore staff has actually been pretty good. Ubaldo Jimenez, Miguel Gonzalez and Wei-Yen Chen each have a sub-3.00 ERA this season. An improved Chris Tillman and a move from the bullpen for top youngster Kevin Gausman could give the Orioles a fantastic starting staff.
If Baltimore can get additional production from a few of its struggling bats, don't be surprised to see the O's sneak back into the American League East race.
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Boston Red Sox
4 of 30
Current Record: 19-20
Projected Record: 83-79
The Skinny
Many pundits believed the Boston Red Sox needed to add an ace after Jon Lester left this winter. So far, those worries have been proven true.
The Red Sox rotation is one of the worst units in baseball a quarter of the way through the season. No Boston starter has an ERA better than Rick Porcello's 4.26 mark.
To make matters worse, an offense that figured to be among the league's best has gone cold in recent weeks. Boston has scored five runs or more just three times in May after doing so 13 times in April.
Improved pitching will take some of the pressure off the scuffling offense, but Boston may not have enough in-house options to fix their problems. Don't be surprised to see the front office make a move for a front-line starter as the season progresses.
Chicago Cubs
5 of 30
Current Record: 21-17
Projected Record: 86-76
The Skinny
There was no shortage in hype for the 2015 Chicago Cubs, but the team is living up to those high expectations so far.
The Cubs have done so behind sturdy starting pitching and a balanced offense. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant make up one of the deadliest slugging combinations in the league, while Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel have all impressed on the bump.
The Cubs have proven they can play, but a young team must learn how to win on the fly. Rizzo, Bryant, Jorge Soler, Starlin Castro and Addison Russell must continue to perform at a high level for the club to push St. Louis in the NL Central.
Chicago White Sox
6 of 30
Current Record: 18-18
Projected Record: 79-83
The Skinny
While the Cubs have impressed in the season's early weeks, their crosstown rivals haven't fared as well.
The White Sox have scored the fewest runs in the American League in 2015. Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia have mashed, but Chicago's table-setters have failed to get on base. Melky Cabrera, Adam Eaton, Alexei Ramirez and Micah Johnson all have poor on-base percentages.
If the White Sox do figure it out at the dish, the pitching should be fine. Chris Sale, Jeff Samardzija and Jose Quintana have struggled, but all are experiencing bad luck on balls in play. White Sox fans shouldn't expect those issues to last very long.
Despite all of that, the White Sox remain right in the thick of things in the AL playoff picture. That bodes well for some good fortune in the months ahead.
Cincinnati Reds
7 of 30
Current Record: 18-21
Projected Record: 75-87
The Skinny
A bounce-back year may still be in the cards for the Cincinnati Reds, but claiming the NL Central throne is likely off the table.
As the club hovers around .500, it presents an interesting problem. Johnny Cueto's contract is up at the end of the season, making him probable trade bait this summer. Cueto has been the anchor for a steady rotation this season, but his status will become a key story over the rest of the season.
The Reds would be higher in the standings if not for the worst bullpen in baseball. Cincinnati failed to address that weakness over the winter, and it's coming back to haunt them in 2015.
Sure, the Reds could battle for a wild-card spot in the National League. But don't be surprised to see the club begin to make significant changes to its roster without improvements.
Cleveland Indians
8 of 30
Current Record: 15-23
Projected Record: 81-81
The Skinny
More often than not, defense isn't something that becomes a focal point for a team until it's really ugly.
That's what's happening in Cleveland, as the Indians rank 28th in FanGraphs' defensive rating. Shortstop Jose Ramirez has been the biggest culprit, making six errors on the season.
That poor defense has led to Cleveland starters posting a plus-5.00 ERA. That number is quite inflated, as Indians hurlers have an FIP in the low-3.00's. Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Trevor Bauer and Danny Salazar all have impressive strikeout-to-walk percentages but aren't getting the necessary backup from their teammates.
Cleveland has too much pitching talent to be so far under .500, but that's where the Indians find themselves in mid-May.
Colorado Rockies
9 of 30
Current Record: 14-22
Projected Record: 73-89
The Skinny
The Colorado Rockies are headed for a busy offseason.
Colorado always figured to struggle on the mind this season, but the way the offense has played this year couldn't have been foreseen. The Rockies just aren't scoring runs, which has magnified the sluggish performances of Troy Tulowitzki and Carlos Gonzalez.
Both stars were involved in trade whispers this offseason and will be sought after this summer, regardless of their current struggles. As Colorado's record continues to go south, dealing Tulo and CarGo will become a distinct possibility.
Detroit Tigers
10 of 30
Current Record: 23-17
Projected Record: 87-75
The Skinny
Losing Max Scherzer to free agency this winter? No problem.
The Tigers would obviously have loved to have kept their former ace, but the Detroit staff has marched on without him. Each starter is going deep into games and keeping the offense in most contests.
If Detroit hurlers can continue to do that, the bats will score enough runs to win the AL Central. The Tigers rank near the top of most offensive categories in the AL and have done so despite a slow start from Victor Martinez.
The bullpen still has its issues, but it has a sub-3.00 ERA thus far. If Joakim Soria and company can continue to lock down victories, the Tigers might just be the best team in the AL.
Houston Astros
11 of 30
Current Record: 26-14
Projected Record: 86-76
The Skinny
The Houston Astros have begun 2015 in outstanding fashion and will likely be a factor all season in the American League.
The Astros rank in the top 11 in ERA and runs scored. Dallas Keuchel and Jose Altuve should be considered in the conversation for AL Cy Young and MVP at this point in the season. Keuchel has a 1.87 ERA in eight starts, while Altuve's all-around game buoys the Houston offense.
It's only May, but the Astros have showcased playoff qualities. The offense's tendency to whiff is cause for concern, but don't expect Houston to fall out of the playoff picture anytime soon.
Kansas City Royals
12 of 30
Current Record: 25-14
Projected Record: 85-77
The Skinny
2014 may have been a Cinderella run for the Kansas City Royals, but the defending American League champions are proving what happened last year was no fluke.
Kansas City has battled with the Detroit Tigers all season atop the AL Central, but it's the Royals who find themselves in first place at the quarter mark.
The Royals have followed a familiar blueprint to get off to such a quick start. Offensively, the club ranks in the top 10 in on-base percentage and steals. The pitching staff ranks fifth in ERA, which includes the top-ranked bullpen in baseball.
Players like Eric Hosmer, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas have enjoyed the confidence boost from last year's postseason heroics. Kansas City has created the blueprint on how to be successful in today's pitcher-driven league and should have the opportunity to defend their AL crown this October.
Los Angeles Angels
13 of 30
Current Record: 20-19
Projected Record: 84-78
The Skinny
Where would the Los Angeles Angels be without Mike Trout?
After leading baseball in runs last season, the Angels rank near the bottom in 2015. Trout has scored or driven in close to 30 percent of those runs and already has a WAR over 2.0 in the season's early goings.
The Angels suffered a big blow with the Josh Hamilton situation and have very little pop in the middle of the order. Albert Pujols, David Freese, C.J. Cron and Matt Joyce have all underachieved, leaving Los Angeles with a serious lack of run production.
The Halos have pitched well enough to win ballgames, and their hurlers are a big reason why the club remains in striking distance in the AL West. If proven MLB hitters can get hot over the next few months, Los Angeles should still be able to exceed its projected win total.
Los Angeles Dodgers
14 of 30
Current Record: 24-14
Projected Record: 96-66
The Skinny
FanGraphs projects the Los Angeles Dodgers to win the most games this season, and why not?
L.A. sits in first place in the NL West behind one of the game's best offenses. The Dodgers rank first in slugging percentage and wRC+ behind the sweet swings of Adrian Gonzalez, Joc Pederson, Howie Kendrick, Andre Ethier, Yasmani Grandal and Alex Guerrero.
All of that offensive firepower has made up for concerns with the starting pitching. Clayton Kershaw hasn't been anywhere near his best, while the back end of the rotation is clouded with uncertainty following the Brandon McCarthy injury. Luckily for the Dodgers, a surprisingly good bullpen has alleviated some of those concerns.
With a quarter of the season in the books, the Dodgers look like the best team in the National League and might just reach their gaudy projected win total.
Miami Marlins
15 of 30
Current Record: 16-24
Projected Record: 77-85
The Skinny
The Miami Marlins were a sexy pick to contend in the National League, and the sudden firing of Mike Redmond proves the club's braintrust believes this club is underachieving.
General manager Dan Jennings will now wear two different hats for a club in desperate need of a spark. Despite fantastic seasons from Giancarlo Stanton and Dee Gordon, the Marlins have fallen well under .500.
A key factor in those struggles has been a lack of consistency on the mound. Without ace Jose Fernandez and with an injury to Henderson Alvarez, Miami's rotation hasn't been able to find its groove just yet. Making matters worse, closer Steve Cishek leads MLB with four blown saves.
Fernandez's return will be a giant lift for the Fish, but Jennings must find a way to get this talented club back on track before it falls out of contention for good.
Minnesota Twins
16 of 30
Current Record: 22-17
Projected Record: 77-85
The Skinny
Although the Minnesota Twins figured to be afterthoughts this season, first-year manager Paul Molitor has steered his team above .500 midway through May.
The Twins rank in the top 10 in runs scored behind standout seasons from Brian Dozier, Trevor Plouffe and Torii Hunter. Minnesota scored plenty of runs last year as well, but the club's pitching has improved in 2015.
Kyle Gibson has the look of a breakout star, while Mike Pelfrey and Trevor May have contributed with solid outings. In the pen, Glenn Perkins continues to be one of the game's most underrated closers.
The Twins are arguably the biggest surprise of the season so far, but it's hard to see them sustaining this run of good play. With the Royals, Tigers and expected improvements from the White Sox and Indians all in the division, Minnesota's probably still a year or two away from serious contention.
Milwaukee Brewers
17 of 30
Current Record: 15-25
Projected Record: 72-90
The Skinny
After a disastrous start to 2015, the Milwaukee Brewers replaced Ron Roenicke with Craig Counsell as the team's manager. If Counsell can't turn around the Brew Crew, the front office might be in sell mode this summer.
Milwaukee's biggest issue as been its starting pitching, as Brewers starters have a collective ERA around 5.00. Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse have been the biggest disappointments, although Jimmy Nelson and Wily Peralta haven't been much better than their veteran teammates.
As bad as Milwaukee's pitching has been, the offense ranks in the bottom half of the league in runs. Injuries to Jonathan Lucroy and Carlos Gomez had plenty to do with that, but subpar seasons from Aramis Ramirez, Jean Segura, Scooter Gennett and Khris Davis have doomed the Brewers offense.
No pitching and no hitting? That doesn't make for a good recipe. Milwaukee may be one of only a few teams that fails to crack 70 wins this year.
New York Mets
18 of 30
Current Record: 23-17
Projected Record: 85-77
The Skinny
The New York Mets came blazing out of the gates this April, but they have cooled down in May. That includes a five-game losing streak in the middle of the month.
If the Mets are to continue to hold off the red-hot Washington Nationals in the NL East, their bats need to wake up. New York has scored more than five runs just five times this month and has scored two or fewer in seven ballgames.
The return of David Wright should help the scuffling offense, but the Mets could really use a boost from free-agent signing Michael Cuddyer and the normally reliable Daniel Murphy.
On the mound, the Mets have as much talent as any team in baseball. Matt Harvey is showing no signs of any elbow issues, and Jacob deGrom is proving his Rookie of the Year campaign was no fluke.
But the Mets must improve offensively and support their fantastic staff to have any shot at making the postseason.
New York Yankees
19 of 30
Current Record: 22-18
Projected Record: 86-76
The Skinny
Alex Rodriguez may not be the best player in the game like he once was, but he's been vital to the success of the New York Yankees in 2015.
A-Rod is healthy and has put his past transgressions behind him. He's slugging well over .500, and he's become an extra-base machine. Rodriguez, along with Mark Teixeira, has had plenty of opportunities to drive in the likes of Jacoby Ellsbury and Brett Gardner.
The rotation has dealt with another injury to Masahiro Tanaka and the inconsistencies of C.C. Sabathia, but Michael Pineda has been one of the best pitchers in the American League. In the bullpen, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances have yet to allow a run all season.
In a division filled with flawed teams, it's possible the Yankees are the most complete team of the bunch. If New York can add another starter, it becomes the team to beat in the AL East.
Oakland A's
20 of 30
Current Record: 14-27
Projected Record: 76-86
The Skinny
Billy Beane's winter retooling of the Oakland A's hasn't panned out, as the club has one of the worst records in baseball.
The A's biggest bugaboo has been their defense. Oakland has committed the most errors in baseball. The club's bullpen is also among the game's worst. Those two key statistics put Oakland's horrific 2-13 record in one-run games in perspective.
Beane has some attractive assets he can dangle in potential trades this summer like Scott Kazmir and Tyler Clippard. After pushing all of his poker chips to the center of the table last summer, Oakland is headed for a complete 180 just one year later.
Philadelphia Phillies
21 of 30
Current Record: 17-24
Projected Record: 68-94
The Skinny
FanGraphs believes that the Philadelphia Phillies will win the fewest games this season. When you scan the Philadelphia roster, it's easy to see why.
Of the 11 hitters who have played in 28 games or more for the Phillies this season, just two have an on-base percentage over .350. That includes Chase Utley, who has the lowest batting average of all qualified major leaguers.
Utley, like many of his veteran teammates, will assume his annual place in the summer trade whispers again over the coming months. But none will command more attention than Cole Hamels.
The Philly ace started slow in 2015 but has put together three straight starts with at least seven innings and two or fewer runs allowed. Hamels' market was fluid this winter, and one would think general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. might finally pull the trigger on a blockbuster deal.
As for meeting their projected win total, the Phillies definitely have the look of a 70-win club, with or without Hamels.
Pittsburgh Pirates
22 of 30
Current Record: 18-21
Projected Record: 84-78
The Skinny
The Pittsburgh Pirates are hovering around .500 without Andrew McCutchen being anywhere near his best.
McCutchen has posted an on-base percentage above .400 in each of the past three seasons, but his 2015 OBP currently sits well below that number. He has begun to swing the bat better in May, but the Pirates must have their perennial MVP candidate at full strength to catch the Cardinals and Cubs in the NL Central.
On the mound, Pittsburgh's staff remains among baseball's best. Headlined by Gerrit Cole, the Pirates starters are giving their team a chance each night out.
The projected standings still see Pittsburgh as a playoff team, but this club will only go as far as McCutchen takes them.
San Diego Padres
23 of 30
Current Record: 20-20
Projected Record: 83-79
The Skinny
The San Diego Padres significantly upgraded its offense this offseason under the creative watch of new general manager A.J. Preller.
After finishing last in runs scored last season, the Padres currently rank at the top of the National League. At the plate, Justin Upton, Wil Myers and Derek Norris have been worth every penny.
But a pitching staff that was supposed to be the team's calling card this year has held San Diego back. Padres starters have a combined ERA over 4.00, while the bullpen has been equally disappointing.
FanGraphs projects the Padres to finish right around .500, but there's too much talent on this team for it not to compete for a playoff spot. The pitching should improve and give the offense a chance to score enough runs to win.
San Francisco Giants
24 of 30
Current Record: 21-18
Projected Record: 83-79
The Skinny
The defending World Series champions didn't get off to the best of starts, but the San Francisco Giants have been lights-out in May. Because of that good play, the Giants have climbed over .500 and back in the NL West race.
Tim Lincecum's career resurgence has been a huge reason for the turnaround, as the former NL Cy Young winner has posted a sub-3.00 ERA. A bullpen that touts three hurlers with a sub-2.00 ERA hasn't hurt the cause, either.
Hunter Pence's return should boost an average offense, but Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt have held down the fort and have given San Fran some much-needed production.
It may be an odd year, but the Giants have overcome a poor start and begun to play better. A healthy Pence and increased production by its cast of veteran hurlers should push San Francisco back into the playoffs.
Seattle Mariners
25 of 30
Current Record: 17-21
Projected Record: 83-79
The Skinny
One of the biggest headlines in the first quarter of the season is Nelson Cruz's assault on major league pitching.
Cruz leads baseball in homers and is slugging nearly .700 to begin his tenure in Seattle. Unfortunately for Cruz, he's not getting much help from the rest of the lineup. The Mariners rank near the bottom in runs scored despite touting a potentially elite lineup.
Seattle's rotation has lived up to its expectations, as four of five starters have an ERA under 4.00. J.A. Happ has been especially impressive and has helped solidify the back end of the rotation.
The Mariners can pitch with the best of teams, but the offense needs to improve in order for them to reach their potential. If the bats get hot, Seattle will approach 90 wins despite the slow start.
St. Louis Cardinals
26 of 30
Current Record: 26-13
Projected Record: 91-71
The Skinny
When a team loses its unquestioned ace to season-ending surgery, it's normally enough to derail most squads.
But the St. Louis Cardinals haven't skipped a beat since Adam Wainwright suffered a serious Achilles injury. Behind Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and John Lackey, the Cards have the best team ERA in baseball.
St. Louis' offense isn't the juggernaut it once was, but it's much-improved from the unit that ranked near the bottom in runs in the National League last year. Matt Carpenter is proving why he's one of the premier table-setters in the game, while Kolten Wong, Jhonny Peralta and Matt Holiday are each having fantastic seasons.
The Cards figure to be tested over the next few months, but their starting pitching makes them the class of the division. It would be surprising to see this team not reach 90 wins.
Tampa Bay Rays
27 of 30
Current Record: 22-18
Projected Record: 81-81
The Skinny
The Tampa Bay Rays were considered afterthoughts heading into this season in the AL East. With expected improvements to the rest of the teams in the division and the loss of manager Joe Maddon, the small-market Rays just didn't look like a winner on paper.
But that's why the games are played, and the Rays find themselves tied with the Yankees for first place in the division. Tampa Bay has done so behind standout starting pitching. Chris Archer and Jake Odorizzi lead the way for a rotation that ranks in the top five in starter's ERA.
The bullpen has been dynamite as well. Brad Boxberger has been lights-out in the ninth inning, while the talented Jake McGee recently made his 2015 debut.
The offense is what it is, but it has enough to keep Tampa Bay in ballgames. The losses of Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly greatly hurt their chances to win the division, but the Rays should be able to hang around the outskirts of the wild-card hunt with what they have.
Texas Rangers
28 of 30
Current Record: 16-23
Projected Record: 73-89
The Skinny
When Yu Darvish was lost for the season, it felt like a gut punch to a Texas Rangers team hoping for a rebound in 2015. Without Darvish, the Rangers seemed to lack the necessary arms to compete in the American League.
While losing Darvish has hurt, Texas starters have actually held their own in his absence. Colby Lewis, Nick Martinez, Yovani Gallardo and the resurgent Wandy Rodriguez have put together fantastic starts to 2015.
The same can't be said for the Rangers bullpen, which ranks in the bottom five in reliever ERA. That includes Neftali Feliz and his plus-5.00 mark.
The offense has been a mixed bag, but Elvis Andrus and Leonys Martin must contribute more for the club to improve. There's signs the Rangers could be better than their expected record, but there's not enough evidence to support that claim at the moment.
Toronto Blue Jays
29 of 30
Current Record: 18-23
Projected Record: 80-82
The Skinny
No rotation has been worse than the Toronto Blue Jays, as Jays starters rank dead last in ERA.
The loss of 2014 breakout hurler Marcus Stroman has been a huge blow for a team with high expectations entering the season. Rookie Daniel Norris is the only Toronto starter with an ERA under 4.00.
Not being able to support such a vaunted offense is inexcusable. The Jays rank first in baseball in runs scored and are pounding opposing pitchers. Russell Martin and Josh Donaldson have been great fits, and Devon Travis is the early leader in the AL Rookie of the Year race.
The offensive firepower gives you hope that Toronto can still be players in the AL East. But the Blue Jays aren't accomplishing anything without improvements to their starting rotation and will hover around .500 with continued struggles.
Washington Nationals
30 of 30
Current Record: 23-17
Projected Record: 94-68
The Skinny
Since beginning the season 7-13, the Washington Nationals have gone on a 16-4 tear to pull into a tie atop the NL East with the New York Mets.
The Nats were a popular pick to represent the NL in the World Series in preseason predictions and are starting to show why so many believed in them. Washington's celebrated pitching staff has performed at a high level, especially Max Scherzer, who leads baseball in pitching WAR.
But the story of the 2015 Washington Nationals has been the jaw-dropping statistics of Bryce Harper. Harper ranks first in the NL in home runs, RBI, walks, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. He's also been the catalyst in Washington's revival this season.
The Nats should take home another NL East crown in 2015 and could finally break through in the postseason. With one of the best staffs in baseball and a locked-in Bryce Harper, don't be surprised to see Washington win more games than any other team this year.
Advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs.
Stats accurate as of 5/19.
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