Why Andy Murray Can Beat Roger Federer

I recently wrote an article that stated that Andy Murray would dethrone King Roger in New York, as Rafael Nadal did in London last year (Roger regained his crown in 2009).  Somebody asked me how it was possible that the young Brit overpowered Federer, and I am going to tell you why.

Last year, Murray had a challenge.  He had just come off a two-day win over then-No. 1 Rafael Nadal, a tough task for someone his age.  Then, the next day, he took on arguably the best player ever, Federer.  Although he didn't put up much of a fight—he lost 6-2, 7-5, 6-2—he missed a challenge late in the second set, it might have won him the set, and in time, the match.

Since Murray has been putting up great numbers, he won a few Masters titles and took the No. 2 ranking from Rafael Nadal.  His confidence and his game entering Flushing Meadows is high, with revenge on Roger in his sights.  He will do anything—anything—to end this year with his first-ever Grand Slam crown.

I know that Roger wins in almost every aspect of the game: forehand, serve, volley, slice, etc.  But Murray has a great backhand and a 6-3 record all-time against Roger.  This gives him a slight, yet important, confidence boost.  Federer has his own confidence boost; he has won four of his last five tournaments (his first four of the season) and has beat Andy in their most recent encounter.

Murray also wants this title more than Roger.  Roger has just eclipsed Pete Sampras's record of 15 Grand Slams, so he isn't fighting for much more.  I think Murray really, really wants to prove he deserves the No. 2 spot by winning a Major.  Murray has the edge in the best categories, among them desire.

Let's take a look at how I think this would play out.  Federer always outplays Murray in the first set of three-set matches, and it will be no different in the five-set format.  He will win, 6-2.  Since Federer has won, he will get a boost and jump ahead, 3-0, in the second set on Andy's serve.  Murray will jump back, though, and take the set, 7-6.  The third set will be dominated by Andy, 6-3.  Federer will not be able to rebound as he loses in four sets.

If, however, Federer can take the Brit to a decisive fifth set, then it could be a different story.  Though I would still put my money on Andy, Federer is Roger Federer.

I believe Andy Murray can upset Roger Federer by hitting consistently to his backhand and providing the occasional surprise by giving him a forehand.

If he can maintain his serve, and pressure Roger some on his serve, the match will be quickly wrapped up.

Andy wants it more, believes in himself more, and has one of the perfect games for defeating Federer: great backhand and exceptional return game to keep King Roger in check.  This will set up his final punch in the knockout set, when he can change up his game to keep Federer on his toes.

We'll get back to this when Andy becomes the first Brit since Fred Perry to win a Grand Slam.

Thanks for reading.