Playing Slump or Bust with MLB's Most Shocking Ice-Cold Starts
You never know what kind of weirdness will happen in the first month of the Major League Baseball season. Up can turn into down. Left can become right. Dogs move in with cats, and vice versa.
And more often than not, players who were supposed to be really good end up being really bad. For some, it turns out to be nothing but a slump. For others...well, they're not so lucky.
Which brings us to today's discussion. There's no shortage of ice-cold starts to talk about, but we're going to focus on the 10 most shocking cold starts and play a game of Slump or Bust. That is to say, we're going to ask if these cold starts are small-sample-size flukes (slumps) or doomed to last all season long (busts).
We'll go in order of least shocking to most shocking. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
Josh Harrison, Pittsburgh Pirates
1 of 10
There were few surprises bigger than Josh Harrison in 2014. A career .250 hitter coming into the year, he hit .315 with an .837 OPS and finished in the top nine in the National League MVP voting.
After a season like that, down is really the only way to go. But Harrison has downright plummeted, batting only .175 with a .504 OPS. He's gone from being one of baseball's best hitters to one of its worst.
In light of Harrison's track record before 2014, this isn't the biggest surprise. And his decline looks like even less of a surprise when you dig into the nitty-gritty.
What was already an aggressive approach is now leaning toward wild, as Harrison has one of the highest chase rates among qualified hitters. He also entered Friday having traded hard contact for soft contact, as his soft-hit rate has gone from 14.9 to 20.0 and his hard-hit rate has gone from 31.8 to 28.2.
It would also appear that pitchers have figured Harrison out. He loves fastballs, but Baseball Savant can vouch that feeding him a steadier diet of inside fastballs is working. He entered Friday hitting just .111 against inside heat, down from .299 in 2014.
Harrison isn't going to hit .175 all year, but he does look like a guy who had it and has now lost it.
Verdict: Bust
Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers
2 of 10
They don't make them much steadier than Kyle Lohse. The veteran right-hander hasn't done worse than a 3.54 ERA in any of the last four seasons and has racked up nearly 800 innings in the process.
And yet, here he is with a 7.01 ERA through six starts. At the start of play on Friday, that was the third-worst ERA in the league among qualified starters.
It's tempting to view this as the start of Lohse's inevitable decline. This is his age-36 season, after all, and he wasn't overpowering to begin with. That he's already given up nine home runs in 34.2 innings looks like confirmation that he's now even less overpowering and thus altogether doomed.
But it's not all bad. As per usual, Lohse's fastball velocity is hovering in the 89-90 mph range. And though his strikeout rate is down slightly, his swinging-strike rate has actually increased from 8.1 to 8.7.
As for Lohse's early home run problem, that may soon correct itself. Though hitters are having no trouble getting the ball in the air against him, both his soft- and hard-hit rates have actually improved from where they were in 2014. Loud contact off him has actually been relatively infrequent.
When you have Lohse's stuff, rough patches are going to happen. Fortunately, that's all this looks like.
Verdict: Slump
Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
3 of 10
Though few seemed to notice, Chris Tillman was one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball between 2012 and 2014. In a span of 82 starts, he racked up a 3.42 ERA in 499.2 innings.
But it now seems like the bump in the road has finally come. Through his first six starts of 2015, he is rocking a 6.25 ERA that's sixth-highest among qualified starters.
On the surface, this has much to do with Tillman's command abandoning him. He's walking 5.1 batters per nine innings, the second highest walk rate among American League starters. Add in a rate of 1.4 home runs per nine innings, and you get a lousy recipe for success.
Below the surface, however, things don't look nearly as bad. At 48.6 percent, Tillman actually entered Thursday's start with a higher zone rate than any he'd posted in the three previous seasons. So despite his high walk rate, he's actually been having no trouble finding the strike zone.
Elsewhere, Tillman's average fastball velocity was also doing all right heading into Thurday's start, improving from 90.8 to 91.5. And thanks to an increase in infield pop-ups, he was also working on huge improvements in both soft- (16.0 to 24.4) and hard-hit (29.5 to 20.5) rate.
So give Tillman some time. Before long, he should look like himself again.
Verdict: Slump
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Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
4 of 10
Jered Weaver had pitched nine seasons in the big leagues before 2015, and not one of them was bad. He was an above-average pitcher the whole way and an innings-eater in many of them.
But Weaver is not looking much like that guy early on in 2015. He has a 6.29 ERA through six starts, which was the fifth-worst in MLB at the start of play Friday.
And sadly, pretty much everything says that this is for real.
Weaver's strikeout rate has all but disappeared, dropping all the way to 3.9 per nine innings. That reflects the difficulty he's had getting swinging strikes, and balls in play haven't been fun for him. As Jeff Sullivan highlighted at FanGraphs, hitters have had a much easier time pulling Weaver, and he's struggled with hard contact.
It's easy to pinpoint Weaver's primary malfunction. The velocity loss he experienced in spring training has carried over, as his average fastball has gone from an already bad 86.8 mph to an even worse 84.3 mph.
At 32, Weaver's decline is happening a wee bit soon. But make no mistake, it's definitely happening.
Verdict: Bust
Edwin Encarnacion, Toronto Blue Jays
5 of 10
Few players were bigger offensive threats than Edwin Encarnacion over the last three seasons. Between 2012 and 2014, he averaged 37 home runs while racking up a .274 average and .916 OPS.
Encarnacion isn't looking so much like that guy early on in 2015. He's only hitting .216 with a .631 OPS and four homers, figures that place him among the worst hitters in MLB.
The 32-year-old slugger looks even less like himself once you get into the details. His walk and strikeout rates are both much worse, and that reflects an approach that's gotten more aggressive and prone to whiffs. His trademark pull rate is also down, and his hard-hit rate is way down.
This is a picture of a guy who's pressing, and it may be that simple. As Encarnacion told Brendan Kennedy of the Toronto Star: “When you don’t feel good you get out of your timing, you swing at bad pitches, you try to swing at everything and sometimes try to do too much.”
However, pitchers do deserve credit for how they've pitched to Encarnacion. Per Baseball Savant, he entered play Friday seeing a career-high percentage of pitches low and away. That's not where his power is, so it's no wonder that hitting these pitches for power is proving difficult.
Encarnacion should eventually get his approach squared away. But if pitchers continue to avoid his danger areas, it may only be good for so much.
Verdict: Bust
Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers
6 of 10
In 2014, Victor Martinez went from being a very good hitter to being the most dangerous hitter in the American League. He hit .335 with a .409 on-base percentage and also slugged a career-high 32 homers.
His follow-up to 2014 isn't going so well, though. The 36-year-old veteran is hitting .241 with a .635 OPS and three extra-base hits. After being arguably baseball's best hitter in 2014, now he's one of the worst.
It's easy to find the main excuse for Martinez's cold start. He had surgery on his left knee before the season, and James Schmehl of MLive.com noted this week that it's still bothering him.
That shows up most in what the switch-hitting Martinez has done when batting left-handed. His production has fallen off dramatically, in no small part because his hard-hit rate has declined from the 37-38 percent range to, as of the start of play Friday, just 25.9 percent.
On the bright side, there's a lot of season left for Martinez to get healthy. It's also worth noting that what he's going through is nothing new, as it took him a couple of months to get in rhythm when he returned from a torn left ACL in 2013.
The difference this time around, however, is not just that Martinez is a couple of years older, but also that he's returning from a much more recent surgery. A full recovery may not be in the cards until 2016.
Verdict: Bust
Adrian Beltre, Texas Rangers
7 of 10
Adrian Beltre hasn't had anything even close to a bad year in the last five seasons, hitting .296 or better every year and averaging an .899 OPS and 29 home runs.
So far in 2015, however, Beltre has cooled down in a big way. He's hitting only .235 with a .653 OPS and two homers, making him a well below-average hitter for a change.
Because this is Beltre's age-36 season, this has the look of the decline that he surely can't hold off forever. But in reality, it may only be a rough patch.
He has long had an aggressive approach, but has gotten away with it because it doesn't get in the way of his making contact. That's still true, as his strikeout rate is continuing to get lower rather than spiking.
Meanwhile, Beltre is still using the whole field. As of the start of play Friday, his pull, middle and opposite field rates were right about where they were in 2014. And though his soft contact rate of 24.3 percent was indeed big by his standards, his hard-hit rate of 28.2 percent wasn't too much of a drop-off from 2014.
So, Beltre looks like a guy who's just a little off rather than a complete mess. He's already starting to turn things around with his play in the last couple of weeks, and that should continue.
Verdict: Slump
Craig Kimbrel, San Diego Padres
8 of 10
Craig Kimbrel has been a force of nature over the last four years, posting a 1.51 ERA in 273 appearances and striking out a staggering 14.6 batters per nine innings. That's what unhittable looks like.
Early this season, though, Kimbrel has looked anything but unhittable. He has a 5.06 ERA in 12 appearances, in which he's struck out "only" 11.8 batters per nine innings and limited opposing hitters to just a .250 batting average.
But don't worry. This shouldn't last.
For starters, Kimbrel's stuff is just fine. He's averaging a career-high 97.1 mph with his fastball. And despite his lesser strikeout rate, his swinging-strike rate has actually improved to 17.8 from 16.6 last year.
Kimbrel's batted-ball profile could also look a lot worse. He's not generating soft contact at his usual rate, but his hard-hit rate of 23.1 percent is his best since 2012.
So have no fear, Padres fans. Your new closer is still a force of nature.
Verdict: Slump
Chris Sale, Chicago White Sox
9 of 10
Chris Sale was a top American League Cy Young contender in 2012 and 2013, and he might have won the darn thing in 2014 if he had pitched more innings. He had a 2.17 ERA and led the AL in strikeout rate.
So, it's weird to look up and see him struggling with a 5.93 ERA through five starts, and even weirder to see that he's struggling with subpar strikeout and walk rates. That makes you wonder...is Sale losing something?
No, not really.
His left arm looks healthy, as his two-seam fastball velocity is continuing an upward trend. Despite his lesser strikeout rate, he's also getting swinging strikes at roughly his career rate. And despite his walk rate, his zone percentage of 46.3 is similar to last year's 46.8.
To boot, Sale's batted-ball profile is doing fine. He's inducing more ground balls than he did in 2014 and has also improved both his soft- and hard-hit rates.
Really the only thing that doesn't look right so far is Sale's slider usage, which has dipped below 10 percent. But aside from that, he looks a lot more like his dominant self than his 5.93 ERA indicates.
Verdict: Slump
Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates
10 of 10
Andrew McCutchen turned himself into arguably the best player in the National League with his play in the last three seasons. He hit .320 with a .939 OPS and averaged 26 homers and 22 steals.
But early on in 2015, McCutchen looks broken. He's batting only .210 with a .622 OPS and has hit only two homers and stolen one base.
It would be convenient for McCutchen to chalk it up to his troublesome left knee, but he's not doing that.
“I can’t sit here and say my knee is the reason or something like that,” he said this week, per Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. “I don’t believe so. I just believe that I’m just a little off, and that’s all that it is. Just getting myself back there because I’m sick and tired of going oh for freaking four.”
McCutchen's 0-fers stem mainly from the fact that he's not making good contact. He entered Friday's action having a hard time pulling the ball (40.p pull percentage), and his soft-hit rate was up (11.8 to 16.5), while his hard-hit rate was down (40.5 to 31.8).
To boot, pitchers haven't been making it easy on McCutchen. Not unlike Edwin Encarnacion, Baseball Savant can show that McCutchen is seeing a career-high rate of low-and-away pitches. That would be pitchers avoiding McCutchen's middle-in danger zone.
Fortunately, he isn't letting this approach overrule his own. Pitchers aren't forcing him to be overaggressive or undisciplined, as his swing (42.5) and chase (22.6) rates were both better than his career norms entering Friday. He also wasn't swinging and missing more than usual.
McCutchen is not right, but he's not lost either. Assuming his left knee improves, he'll be fine.
Verdict: Slump
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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