NFL Draft Rumors: Buying or Selling Latest Around the League
If you have paid attention to the NFL draft for any amount of time, then you understand that in the final days leading up to the event, rumors will be flying. 2015 has been no different as the rumors are really starting to heat up. How much of it is smoke, and how much of it is fire?
Rumors typically center on one of two areas. First are the trades. If you take every trade rumor that comes down the pike, the entire league wants to make a move up or down but can’t find a buyer. There’s no doubt teams are going to throw offers out there, but it is a challenge for both sides to find value.
The second category of rumor this time of year pertains to draft stock. It is miraculous how news of things like injuries and the like tends to surface this time of year. Sometimes, teams that want to drive the stock of a player down in order to draft him create these rumors. Similarly, teams can artificially inflate draft stock in order to initiate a possible trade.
Let’s see if we buy or sell some of the latest NFL draft rumors.
Jalen Collins Failed Multiple Drug Tests
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The latest rumor making the rounds right now centers on LSU cornerback Jalen Collins. Albert Breer of NFL Network tweeted out that it has been reported that Collins failed multiple drug tests while he was at LSU.
There are really two angles to look at with this. First, are the rumors true? And second, why is this coming out now? Let’s address the first. There’s little doubt that if it is out there via a source like Breer, that yes, Collins likely failed those reported drug tests. The failed drug test has become the parking ticket of character red flags, and so the real impact of this is probably fairly minimal.
However, the timing is more interesting. If a team “leaked” this rumor, it could be an attempt to push Collins a little deeper, possibly out of the first round. This cornerback class is loaded with borderline first-round prospects, with Collins among them. If I am a team picking near the middle of the second round, a little well-placed information could help get Collins within range.
BUY
Shane Ray and That Toe of His
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It has not been a great offseason for Missouri DE/LB Shane Ray. First, Ray was forced to miss the scouting combine with a toe injury. This meant he wasn’t able to work out next to the other top edge rushers. Ray had a chance for redemption at his pro day, but results were mixed. This was due to a lingering toe injury.
Then rumblings started to surface that Ray’s toe was worse than expected and would require surgery. All the uproar started via NFL.com analyst Lance Zierlein and this series of tweets.
It’s unfortunate that something so benign grows legs. Putting that info out there was unfortunate and irresponsible, but fortunately for Ray it has been refuted. NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport cleared up the misunderstanding the day after Zierlein’s tweet the following day.
Is Ray’s toe situation disconcerting? Of course it is. Anything that even resembles turf toe is troubling for a player that relies on cuts and change of direction like he will. Nevertheless, it seems that surgery rumors are just that.
SELL
The Great Mariota Mystery
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Just the notion of a three-team trade in the NFL boggles the mind. However, when I read Mark Eckel’s piece on NJ.com about this possible multiple-trade scenario, it not only sounded plausible, but logical. Let me do my best to summarize what the thesis of these moves would be.
First, the Cleveland Browns would send their two first-round picks (No. 12 and No. 19), and quarterback Johnny Manziel to the Philadelphia Eagles. In exchange, the Eagles would send their first-round pick (No. 20) and Sam Bradford to the Browns. Is everyone keeping up so far?
If this were the end of the trade, that would be fine. Cleveland gets the quarterback they covet and dumps the quarterback they don’t want, and the Eagles have two picks to work with.
However, let’s take this permutation to the next logical conclusion. Philadelphia, now armed with a couple of first-round picks, then reaches out to the Tennessee Titans. After all, Oregon quarterback Marcus Mariota is the dream quarterback for Eagles head coach Chip Kelly.
So following up, NJ.com then presented the next move that would finalize this deal.
According to the piece, the Eagles would send their two first-round picks, along with linebacker Mychal Kendricks and defensive tackle Fletcher Cox to the Titans for the No. 2 overall pick. They could then use that pick to select Mariota.
All of the parts of this scenario seem to work, but when you mash them all together it is just too much. Regardless of how great Kelly believes Mariota might be, that is just too much to give up in order to get him. I think there is a real possibility that some facets of this massive deal happen, but there are just too many layers to this onion for it to be in the works.
SELL
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Saints Moving Up to Get Vic Beasley
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After that last trade rumor, we could all use a little cleansing of the palate with something slightly more viable. According to Tony Pauline of draftinsider.net, the New Orleans Saints have become smitten with Clemson DE/LB Vic Beasley.
New Orleans currently has the No. 13 and No. 31 picks so there is some leverage here. With so many teams near the top of the round that could be looking for a pass-rushing specialist, if defensive coordinator Rob Ryan really thinks Beasley could be special, packaging those picks to put up ahead of a team like the Atlanta Falcons makes perfect sense.
BUY
Ifo Ekpre-Olomu Injury Worse Than Expected
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When Oregon cornerback Ifo Ekpre-Olomu injured his ACL last year, it was a tragedy. The Oregon star was one of the best cornerbacks in the country. He was a near-lock for a first-round pick with his aggressive nature and impressive ball skills.
However, with medical technology being what it is, even with a tear so late, one couldn’t rule out Ekpre-Olomu being ready during the 2015 season. This would also help save his draft stock to a degree.
That journey potentially took a hit with the rumor via walterfootball.com that his injury extends well beyond a simple ACL tear. They even hinted that he might not ever play again.
Rumors from a single source like this have to be taken with a grain of salt. It would be seriously unfortunate if it was true, and it won’t take long on draft weekend to find out. Perhaps one thing that is disconcerting about the situation is that Ekpre-Olomu’s Twitter page went silent back in March.
That might not seem like much but in this day and age where everyone chronicles his or her lives via social media, stepping away from it during recovery seems odd. If all was well, you’d expect Ekpre-Olomu to be posting regular updates, but there’s been nothing. Tragically, this one feels real.
BUY
Todd Gurley's Draft Stock
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Yahoo’s Charles Robinson sent out an interesting tweet pertaining to Georgia running back Todd Gurley. For a running back coming off a knee injury, the notion that he could find himself going inside of the first 10 picks seems a bit far-fetched. If a team is willing to take a chance on Gurley this early, they must assume that he is some sort of transcendent talent at the position.
What would be the impetus of a team falsely inflating the value of a player like Gurley? It is most likely trade leverage. Create a buzz about a player moving way up, then ring up a team eyeing Gurley and make a trade back. Even if you consider Gurley a top-10 talent, it is hard to think the league views him as a top-10 pick.
SELL
Chargers Trading Rivers
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When you consider the situation the San Diego Chargers are in, it is hard to think about them trading away Philip Rivers to a team like the Tennessee Titans in order for San Diego to go up and draft Marcus Mariota. Rivers is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league. He might be 33 years old, but he has topped 4,000 yards passing in six of the past seven seasons.
Where did this rumor come from? One source was NFL Network reporter Alex Flanagan, who sent out a tweet indicating that the rumor has “legitimate legs” based on more and more people she talks to. Who is she talking to? No idea. But Rivers seemed to shoot down the rumors recently, as reported by the Sun Times’ Michael Cronin.
I’ll pass on this one.
SELL
Miami Trading Up for a Wide Receiver
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Let’s finish this list off with another rumor a bit more sedate than about All-Pro quarterbacks and NFL threesomes. This time around it is about the Miami Dolphins and their potential interest in trading up into the top 10 to snag one of the top wide receivers in this draft.
This was first brought up by Rob Rang of CBS Sports here, and the move would make a ton of sense. The drop-off after wide receivers Amari Cooper, DeVante Parker and Kevin White is significant enough that a small bump to secure one of them would help this team.
I’m sure that quarterback Ryan Tannehill would love to add another weapon as he approaches the point in his rookie contract when he will be looking for an extension. How far up would they have to go? Hard to say, but moving ahead of the Minnesota Vikings at No. 11 is a must, and getting ahead of the New York Jets at No. 6 would be ideal.
BUY
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