Daily Fantasy Basketball 2015: NBA DraftKings Strategy for April 19th
Yesterday, the stars had big nights. Steph Curry and Anthony Davis both dropped over 50 fantasy points in Oracle Arena. Derrick Rose hit three key three-pointers in the third quarter and finished with 23 points and seven assists in a home win over the Bucks. And James Harden had 24 points and 11 assists in a home win against the Mavs.
But the real key to fantasy success yesterday was playing the right mix of mid-priced guys to complement those stars. Andrew Bogut, Paul Pierce, Terrence Jones and Nene all had big games and didn't sink their owners' rosters with high prices.
Here's a guide to finding that right combination of mid- and high-priced guys again today.
| Studs | Opp. | Price | Values | Opp. | Price | |
| Damian Lillard | @ Mem | $7,900 | Isaiah Thomas | @ Cle | $6,400 | |
| Kyrie Irving | vs. Bos | $7,700 | C.J. McCollum | @ Mem | $4,400 | |
| Jeff Teague | vs. Bkn | $6,800 | *Nick Calathes | vs. Por | $3,000 |
If Mike Conley wasn't as highly questionable as Dan LeBatard, I'd play him in every contest I entered. Damian Lillard is a terrible defensive point guard. He has trouble closing out on threes, fighting through screens and shutting down back door cuts.
Though Conley is not an elite offensive point guard, he is excellent at exploiting matchups when the opportunity arises.
Conley's backups, Beno Udrih and Nick Calathes, are limited players. Neither can explode to the rim and finish like Conley. Per Statmuse, they both average about 29 fantasy points per 36 minutes on the floor. I'd lean towards Calathes because he has a higher ceiling.
| Studs | Opp. | Price | Values | Opp. | Price | |
| J.R. Smith | vs. Bos | $5,000 | Jamal Crawford | vs. SA | $4,500 | |
| Kyle Korver | vs. Bkn | $4,600 | Bojan Bogdanovic | @ Atl | $3,900 |
According to Basketball-reference.com, the Hawks and Warriors played the two deepest rotations in the league this season. Yesterday we saw the Warriors starters play significantly more minutes than they averaged over the course of the season. I believe the same will hold true for the Hawks' starters.
Kyle Korver is the Hawks' most important offensive player. His deadly shot accuracy makes defenses scramble so much that other players get amazing looks at the hoop.
Today he faces a Nets defense that, according to Rotogrinders.com, allowed the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards this season. Look for Korver to drop in at least four three-pointers en route to a solid fantasy day.
| Studs | Opp. | Price | Values | Opp. | Price | |
| LeBron James | vs. Bos | $10,600 | DeMarre Carroll | vs. Bkn | $5,600 | |
| Kawhi Leonard | @ LAC | $8,400 |
LeBron James has a storied history playing the Celtics in the playoffs. Per Statmuse, in four career playoff series vs. the C's, James has never averaged fewer than 50 fantasy points per game!
Those Celtics rosters LeBron was playing against were a little more talented than this Celtics roster. James is a mismatch for most teams, but he gets a really nice matchup in the first round. Jae Crowder is a trustworthy NBA rotation player. He's had a rejuvenated few months in Boston, but he'll be no match for the King.
| Studs | Opp. | Price | Values | Opp. | Price | |
| Lamarcus Aldridge | @ Mem | $8,600 | Kevin Love | vs. Bos | $7,200 | |
| Tim Duncan | @ LAC | $7,400 | Thaddeus Young | @ Atl | $5,700 | |
| Paul Millsap | vs. Bkn | $7,400 | Jae Crowder | @ Cle | $4,400 |
According to Rotogrinders.com, the Brooklyn Nets finished the season as the second-worst team against opposing power forwards. Paul Millsap, Atlanta's All-Star power forward, is slightly under-priced on DraftKings right now because he missed five games in a row before playing in the season finale.
Per Statmuse.com, Millsap averaged just under 40 fantasy points per 36 minutes this season. If the Nets can hang with the offensively gifted Hawks, Millsap should play 36 minutes, up from his season average of 32.
| Studs | Opp. | Price | Values | Opp. | Price | |
| DeAndre Jordan | vs. SA | $8,500 | Al Horford | vs. Bkn | $7,100 | |
| Marc Gasol | vs. Por | $7,500 | Tyler Zeller | @ Cle | $4,200 |
To me, the series between the Spurs and Clippers will be the most fun to watch.
Why? You ask?
Because it's the only first round matchup that pits two coaches with rings (as coaches) against each other. Despite their eight combined NBA Finals appearances, Doc Rivers and Gregg Popovich have never coached against each other in a playoff series.
The last time these two teams played, the Spurs fouled DeAndre Jordan a million times. He finished with 26 points and 18 rebounds but also shot a porous 12 of 29 from the free-throw line. Coach Doc Rivers refuses to take his star center off the court, and I'll happily reap the rewards as Jordan piles up free fantasy points from the charity stripe. You should too.
