NBA Draft Notebook: Projecting Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker as Pros
Senior Frank Kaminsky and junior Sam Dekker nearly led Wisconsin to a national title. Kaminsky ended up taking home National Player of the Year honors. Dekker averaged 19.2 points through six NCAA tournament games.
We're talking about two of the top college basketball players in the country. The big question is how they stack up in the 2015 NBA draft conversation, where the Badgers stars remain a topic of debate.
As good as they've were at Wisconsin, each carries red flags that could potentially cloud his NBA outlook. Over the next two months, scouts and general managers will be deciding just how much stock to put into these possible concerns and whether they should ultimately ignore them altogether.
Frank Kaminsky, 7'0", PF/C, 234 pounds, 22 years old
| FG Pct. | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PT Pct. | Blocks |
| .547 | 18.8 | 8.2 | 2.6 | .416 | 1.5 |
Kaminsky used each year at Wisconsin to sharpen every aspect of his game, from his footwork to his jumper to his passing. You won't see many 7-footers this skilled coming out of college.
But there is just no hiding the fact that Kaminsky isn't particularly athletic or strong. And it's something that could ultimately limit the ceiling tied to his advanced offensive game.
"Not much upside with Kaminsky, but I still think he can be a solid NBA player. He reminds me some of Kelly Olynyk," one NBA scout told Bleacher Report.
At 234 pounds without any explosiveness, there has been some skepticism over his ability to bang for buckets, rebounds and position in the NBA.
And though Kaminsky's feet are nimble, they aren't the quickest. His best move is the spin off a line drive—a move that highlights his body control, as opposed to his burst. Though Kaminsky is a threat to face up, he lacks a blow-by turn-the-corner step.
Defense is another area where Kaminsky's potential may be limited. He's not exactly a cement wall down low. His 4.5 percent block percentage, per Sports-Reference.com, would rank alongside some of the lowest block percentages recorded by a first-round center over the last 10 years.
Other than his impressive basketball IQ, the biggest thing going for Kaminsky moving forward is that jumper, which connected on 41.6 percent of his three-pointers. The value attached to stretch big men has never been greater. Kaminsky's ability to bring opposing defensive anchors away from the rim and knock down shots off pick-and-pops and drive-and-kicks is a skill that could carry him to a long career.
"Is he a guaranteed starter in the league? Maybe not, but he will have a place in the league and in a rotation for 10-plus years," a second scout told Bleacher Report.
There is certainly demand for shooting big men like Kaminsky. And given his reliable touch, he might be able to offer something as a rookie in 2014-15. I'd just hesitate before reaching too high in the draft. The mid-first round seems about right. For what it's worth, I like the Andrea Bargnani comparison in terms of his projected NBA role and style of play.
Sam Dekker, 6'9", SF, 220 pounds, 20 years old (birthday in May)
| FG Pct. | Points | Rebounds | Assists | 3PT Pct. | Steals |
| .525 | 13.9 | 5.5 | 1.2 | .331 | 0.5 |
Dekker went nuts this postseason, going for 17 points against Oregon, 23 against North Carolina, 27 against Arizona and 16 against Kentucky.
From difficult shot-making and athletic drives to post buckets and perimeter defense, Dekker flashed the entire package over the past few weeks.
You could argue nobody's stock received a bigger boost in March and April. But should it have?
Dekker shot just 32.6 percent from three as a sophomore, and he was shooting only 30.4 percent from three heading into the tournament. He also finished his junior season at 70.8 percent from the line—sadly, a career high.
The two airballs he threw up from downtown in the title game against Duke weren't his first of the season.
He's been a fairly mediocre-to-average shooter over the course of his three seasons at Wisconsin. I'm not sure you can just forget about that after a four-game breakout.
Heading into the tournament, Dekker's career high was 22 points. And though Wisconsin shares the ball as much as anyone, Dekker's limitations as a shot creator and playmaker (1.2 assists per game) have been undeniable.
However, his use and purpose in the pro game is clear. Dekker projects as a role player—a do-it-all utility man who'll be a lot more effective as a No. 4 or 5 offensive option.
Dekker is ultimately at his best operating off the ball, where his 6'9" size and athleticism for a wing translate to field goals off cuts, slashes and putbacks. And though the jumper needs major work, he's at least capable spotting up, having made 142 threes since 2012.
He's the glue guy who makes the extra pass and finishes the plays that find him within his team's offense.
Dekker will have the chance to become a defensive asset as well. His size and quickness could allow him to guard stretch 4s, small forwards and some 2s.
But without a trustworthy jumper or much of a one-on-one game after three years, I'd temper my expectations with regard to Dekker's ceiling as a pro. I like Jeff Green as a pro player comparison, although Keith Van Horn isn't bad, either. Dekker is ranked No. 15 on our most recent post-tournament big board.
Notables
- Of all the names to declare early, nobody's is more interesting than Syracuse freshman forward Chris McCullough, who tore his ACL back in January. McCullough had generated draft buzz late in December, but he averaged just 4.3 points over his final eight games. At 6'10" with a 7'3" wingspan and a comfortable mid-range stroke, McCullough is a terrific athlete loaded with potential. But at 220 pounds coming off ACL surgery, he's clearly a few years away from having anything to offer. I'm still betting on McCullough attracting first-round interest, given his enticing upside and the fact that late-round picks don't play as rookies, anyway.
- Duke freshman point guard Tyus Jones carried the Blue Devils down the stretch of the championship game. More than anything, it was Jones' poise and toughness that stood out while he knocked down difficult shot after difficult shot. Unfortunately, it doesn't change the thought that Jones' lack of strength and athleticism should limit his NBA potential. He's going to have a tough time finishing at the rim and fighting through screens out on the perimeter. Jones projects more as a backup, which should make him worth targeting somewhere in 20s or later.
- Duke freshman wing Justise Winslow earned himself a whole lot of fans during the NCAA tournament. Some, including Grantland's Bill Simmons, were on board with the idea that Winslow should be a No. 1 overall pick candidate. I wouldn't go that far. He's still outside the top four for me. I'm not completely sold on his shooting mechanics or offensive game just yet. Winslow remains No. 5 on my big board, and unless anything groundbreaking develops over the next two months, it's hard to picture that changing.
- Kansas announced that big man Cliff Alexander will be entering the draft, despite a nightmare freshman season. Alexander averaged just 3.7 points his final nine games before eligibility issues cost him all of March. At 6'8" without a jumper or post game, Alexander's weaknesses and limitations were badly exposed. He'll be entering the draft with a resume consisting of more red flags than strengths. Maybe he gets a general manager looking for value to bite in the late first round, but I wouldn't bank on it.
- UCLA freshman forward Kevon Looney, who was pegged early as a lottery pick, has decided to enter the draft. Looney has plenty of upside with 6'9" size, a promising jumper and face-up versatility. But he's just 220 pounds and isn't much of a threat in the post. Looney has mismatch written all over him if he can transition to small forward. I'm just not sure he has the body or athleticism to do it. Consider Looney one of the bigger risk-reward plays in the draft.
All quotes were obtained firsthand unless otherwise noted.
All advanced stats courtesy of Sports-Reference.com.
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