Power Ranking All 15 MLB Opening Day Pitching Matchups
Opening Day is finally here, and among other things, that means we'll be seeing some fantastic pitching matchups to kick off the new season.
A total of 19 teams will be trotting out a different Opening Day starter from last season, and among them will be big-money free-agent signings Max Scherzer and Jon Lester.
Injuries will keep the likes of Chris Sale, Alex Cobb, Garrett Richards and Jose Fernandez from what would have likely otherwise been Opening Day starts, but there will still be plenty of stud arms on display to begin the year.
That said, here is a quick ranking of all 15 Opening Day pitching matchups, based on the combined talent level of the two starters involved.
15. Kyle Kendrick (Colorado Rockies) vs. Kyle Lohse (Milwaukee Brewers)
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Kyle Kendrick, Colorado Rockies
| 32 | 10-13 | 4.61 | 4.57 | 1.362 | 57 | 121 | 199.0 | 0.4 |
A solid back-of-the-rotation starter during his time with the Philadelphia Phillies and a useful innings eater last year when he pitched a career-high 199, Kyle Kendrick should be nowhere near Opening Day.
That said, this is the Colorado Rockies we're talking about, and they'll again look to outslug opponents with one of the league's best offenses and worst pitching staffs. If Kendrick can come close to 200 innings again, he'll be a steal at $5.5 million.
Kyle Lohse, Milwaukee Brewers
| 31 | 13-9 | 3.54 | 3.95 | 1.150 | 45 | 141 | 198.1 | 2.5 |
With Yovani Gallardo gone, veteran Kyle Lohse gets the nod on Opening Day for the Milwaukee Brewers. This marks the third Opening Day start of his career, as he also took the ball for the St. Louis Cardinals to kick off the 2008 and 2012 seasons.
Since a disastrous 2010 season, Lohse has quietly been one of the league's most consistent starters, going 54-30 with a 3.28 ERA and 1.143 WHIP.
14. Madison Bumgarner (SF Giants) vs. Josh Collmenter (Arizona Diamondbacks)
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Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
| 33 | 18-10 | 2.98 | 3.05 | 1.090 | 43 | 219 | 217.1 | 4.0 |
This ranking is certainly not a reflection of Madison Bumgarner, who easily ranks among the game's top starters and is coming off of one of the most dominant postseasons in MLB history.
Somehow still only 25 years old, Bumgarner set career highs in strikeouts and innings pitched last season, and when the playoffs came to an end, he had piled up 270 innings of work overall. As long as that workload doesn't catch up to him, he should be dominant once again in 2015.
Josh Collmenter, Arizona Diamondbacks
| 28 | 11-9 | 3.46 | 3.87 | 1.126 | 39 | 115 | 179.1 | 2.4 |
Probably a No. 3 starter on a good team, Josh Collmenter instead finds himself in the role of staff ace for the Arizona Diamondbacks to begin the season.
That's not to say he didn't have a solid season in 2014, especially down the stretch, when he posted a 1.26 ERA over his final seven starts. After a scoreless spring, perhaps Collmenter winds up surprising more than a few people in 2015.
13. Clay Buchholz (Boston Red Sox) vs. Cole Hamels (Philadelphia Phillies)
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Clay Buchholz, Boston Red Sox
| 28 | 8-11 | 5.34 | 4.01 | 1.386 | 54 | 132 | 170.1 | -1.6 |
Clay Buchholz had the worst numbers of any of this year's Opening Day starters last season, but he's more than capable of bouncing back alongside newcomers Rick Porcello and Wade Miley in the new-look Boston Red Sox rotation.
Keep in mind, this is the same Clay Buchholz who went 9-0 with a 1.71 ERA through 12 starts in 2013 before missing significant time with shoulder problems.
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
| 30 | 9-9 | 2.46 | 3.07 | 1.148 | 59 | 198 | 204.2 | 6.6 |
After an offseason of incessant trade rumors, Cole Hamels will again be suiting up for the Philadelphia Phillies, and he figures to be one of the few bright spots on the roster.
Every start will essentially be an audition for the other 29 teams, as it's more a matter of when he'll be traded at this point and not if. Despite the 9-9 record, a strong case can be made for 2014 being the best season of his career.
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12. Chris Tillman (Baltimore Orioles) vs. Chris Archer (Tampa Bay Rays)
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Chris Tillman, Baltimore Orioles
| 34 | 13-6 | 3.34 | 4.01 | 1.230 | 66 | 150 | 207.1 | 2.4 |
The Baltimore Orioles succeeded more on the depth of their starting rotation than on their front-line talent last season, but Chris Tillman has emerged as a reliable arm atop the staff.
That 4.01 FIP is a bit off-putting, but he has a 4.22 FIP and 3.42 ERA over the past three seasons, so he might just be one of those guys (Jered Weaver is another) where FIP is not the best indicator of future success.
Chris Archer, Tampa Bay Rays
| 32 | 10-9 | 3.33 | 3.39 | 1.279 | 72 | 173 | 194.2 | 2.5 |
With Alex Cobb and Drew Smyly both beginning the season on the disabled list and Matt Moore still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Opening Day start for the Tampa Bay Rays has fallen to Chris Archer.
The Rays showed their faith in the 26-year-old last April when they signed him to a six-year, $25.5 million extension, and he rewarded them with a terrific first full season. He has plus strikeout stuff, and he's not yet reached his ceiling.
11. Bartolo Colon (New York Mets) vs. Max Scherzer (Washington Nationals)
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Bartolo Colon, New York Mets
| 31 | 15-13 | 4.09 | 3.57 | 1.226 | 30 | 151 | 202.1 | 0.5 |
Despite the fact that he'll be 42 years old in May and relies almost exclusively on a fastball that sits in the 88-90 range, Bartolo Colon remains a solid big league starter.
This will mark the seventh Opening Day start of his 18-year career, as he made three each for the Cleveland Indians and Los Angeles Angels, with the last one coming in 2006.
Game 3 of this series, when Matt Harvey squares off against Stephen Strasburg, is actually a far better matchup and would have ranked considerably higher on this list.
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
| 33 | 18-5 | 3.15 | 2.85 | 1.175 | 63 | 252 | 220.1 | 6.0 |
Serious about not just winning another division title but making a legitimate run come October, the Washington Nationals inked Max Scherzer to a seven-year, $210 million deal this offseason.
The 30-year-old has undoubtedly emerged as one of the best in the business over the past two seasons, as he followed up his 2013 AL Cy Young performance with another terrific campaign last year.
10. Corey Kluber (Cleveland Indians) vs. Dallas Keuchel (Houston Astros)
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Corey Kluber, Cleveland Indians
| 34 | 18-9 | 2.44 | 2.35 | 1.095 | 51 | 269 | 235.2 | 7.4 |
After showing some flashes in 2013, Corey Kluber broke out in a big way last season, edging out Felix Hernandez for AL Cy Young honors and helping the Cleveland Indians make a second-half push for the playoffs.
There's nothing in his peripheral numbers to suggest he can't again rank as one of the league's elite arms, and with some legitimate expectations surrounding the Indians, another dominant season would go a long way.
Dallas Keuchel, Houston Astros
| 29 | 12-9 | 2.93 | 3.21 | 1.175 | 48 | 146 | 200.0 | 5.0 |
Dallas Keuchel entered last season with less-than-impressive career numbers, as the left-hander had gone 9-18 with a 5.20 ERA and 1.540 WHIP in 38 starts and nine relief appearances over parts of two seasons.
However, he turned in 21 quality starts in 29 games last year, including seven straight to close out the season, and an up-and-coming Houston Astros team will be counting on him to lead the staff once again. While he may regress a bit, he looks like more than just a one-year wonder.
9. Drew Hutchison (Toronto Blue Jays) vs. Masahiro Tanaka (New York Yankees)
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Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays
| 32 | 11-13 | 4.48 | 3.85 | 1.262 | 60 | 184 | 184.2 | 1.5 |
Drew Hutchison was hit or miss last season, allowing five or more runs nine times, but when he was on, he proved capable of dominating opposing hitters. There's a lot to like about those 184 strikeouts in 184.2 innings.
According to Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun, the 24-year-old Hutchison will be the Toronto Blue Jays' youngest Opening Day starters since Todd Stottlemyre back in 1990.
Masahiro Tanaka, New York Yankees
| 20 | 13-5 | 2.77 | 3.04 | 1.056 | 21 | 141 | 136.1 | 3.3 |
Masahiro Tanaka opted for rest and rehab instead of surgery when he suffered a partially torn UCL in the middle of what was a phenomenal rookie season last year, and for the time being at least, he's healthy.
Keeping him whole will be key for a New York Yankees team with no shortage of question marks in the starting rotation, as he was undoubtedly one of the best starters in baseball last year before landing on the DL.
8. Julio Teheran (Atlanta Braves) vs. Henderson Alvarez (Miami Marlins)
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Julio Teheran, Atlanta Braves
| 33 | 14-13 | 2.89 | 3.49 | 1.081 | 51 | 186 | 221.0 | 3.9 |
There are a lot of holes on this year's version of the Atlanta Braves, but a trio of young starters atop the rotation gives plenty of hope for the future, and Julio Teheran is the best of the bunch.
Still just 24 years old, Teheran followed up a terrific rookie season in 2013 by legitimately establishing himself as an ace last season, and the right-hander should only get better moving forward.
Henderson Alvarez, Miami Marlins
| 30 | 12-7 | 2.65 | 3.58 | 1.235 | 33 | 111 | 187.0 | 4.6 |
Thrust into the role of staff ace last season when Jose Fernandez was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery, Henderson Alvarez thrived on his way to the first All-Star appearance of his career.
The 24-year-old does not put up huge strikeout numbers, and he's likely due for some regression based on his 3.58 FIP last year, but he should again be a solid arm in a Miami Marlins rotation that has a chance to be one of the best in the NL once Fernandez returns.
7. Yovani Gallardo (Texas Rangers) vs. Sonny Gray (Oakland Athletics)
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Yovani Gallardo, Texas Rangers
| 32 | 8-11 | 3.51 | 3.94 | 1.295 | 54 | 146 | 192.1 | 2.5 |
This matchup would have challenged for the top spot in these rankings if it were Yu Darvish taking the ball for the Texas Rangers, but alas, he was lost for the season to Tommy John surgery.
Instead, it will be Yovani Gallardo, who has been the Milwaukee Brewers' Opening Day starter the past five seasons. He'll team up with Derek Holland to try to carry the rotation in the absence of Darvish, and he's capable of a big season, especially considering he's in a contract year.
Sonny Gray, Oakland Athletics
| 33 | 14-10 | 3.08 | 3.46 | 1.192 | 74 | 183 | 219.0 | 3.2 |
A budding star entering his age-25 season, Sonny Gray has quickly gone from top prospect to leader of a new-look Oakland Athletics starting rotation.
His curveball is one of the best in the game, and don't be surprised if his 7.5 K/9 rate climbs considerably in what will be his second full season in the big leagues. He has a chance to be one of the game's elite arms for the foreseeable future.
6. Jeff Samardzija (Chicago White Sox) vs. Yordano Ventura (Kansas City Royals)
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Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox
| 33 | 7-13 | 2.99 | 3.20 | 1.065 | 43 | 202 | 219.2 | 3.7 |
A foot injury to ace Chris Sale has opened the door for Jeff Samardzija to make his third straight Opening Day start, with the previous two coming as a member of the Chicago Cubs.
He began last season with a 1.68 ERA through his first 11 starts, though he did not pick up his first win until May 26. This time around, he'll be looking to get into the win column a bit sooner.
Yordano Ventura, Kansas City Royals
| 30 | 14-10 | 3.20 | 3.60 | 1.295 | 69 | 159 | 183.0 | 3.2 |
With a shiny new five-year, $23 million extension signed on Saturday, flame-throwing Yordano Ventura is set to step into the role of staff ace for the Kansas City Royals now that James Shields has taken his talents to San Diego.
He's somewhat undersized at 6'0" and 180 pounds, but with a fastball that can reach triple digits and a devastating curveball, he has the overpowering stuff to be an absolute force.
5. Phil Hughes (Minnesota Twins) vs. David Price (Detroit Tigers)
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Phil Hughes, Minnesota Twins
| 32 | 16-10 | 3.52 | 2.65 | 1.130 | 16 | 186 | 209.2 | 4.3 |
Signed to a three-year, $24 million deal last winter, Phil Hughes wound up being one of the best bargains of the offseason and the only reliable pitcher the Minnesota Twins had on their roster.
His 11.63 K-BB ratio set an all-time record, and his 2.65 FIP ranked fifth in the American League, as he wound up finishing seventh in the balloting for AL Cy Young honors.
David Price, Detroit Tigers
| 34 | 15-12 | 3.26 | 2.78 | 1.079 | 38 | 271 | 248.1 | 4.6 |
With Max Scherzer and Rick Porcello gone, it will be up to David Price to carry the Detroit Tigers rotation this coming season as they look to make it five straight AL Central titles.
The big left-hander is also pitching in a contract year, and he could be the prize of the free-agent market next winter if the Tigers are unable to lock him up long term.
4. Francisco Liriano (Pittsburgh Pirates) vs. Johnny Cueto (Cincinnati Reds)
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Francisco Liriano, Pittsburgh Pirates
| 29 | 7-10 | 3.38 | 3.59 | 1.300 | 81 | 175 | 162.1 | 1.6 |
Francisco Liriano came out on top when these two pitchers squared off two years ago in the NL Wild Card Round, and he'll be looking to do the same as he makes his second consecutive Opening Day start.
Considering the ever-climbing price of quality starting pitching, the Pirates look to have gotten an absolute steal when they re-signed the left-hander for $39 million over three years.
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
| 34 | 20-9 | 2.25 | 3.30 | 0.960 | 65 | 242 | 243.2 | 6.4 |
He could have a hard time duplicating his fantastic numbers from a year ago, but Johnny Cueto should again be one of the best pitchers in all of baseball.
He'll be plenty motivated as he pitches for a new contract, and if the Cincinnati Reds fall out of things early, he could be the most sought-after trade chip on the market when the deadline rolls around.
3. Jered Weaver (Los Angeles Angels) vs. Felix Hernandez (Seattle Mariners)
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Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels
| 34 | 18-9 | 3.59 | 4.19 | 1.209 | 65 | 169 | 213.1 | 3.0 |
He does not possess the same strikeout stuff he did when he first broke into the league, but Jered Weaver remains one of the game's most consistent starting pitchers and the ace of the Los Angeles Angels staff.
Wins and losses don't carry the same weight they used to, but with a 131-69 career record, Weaver is second among active pitchers with at least 100 decisions with a .655 winning percentage.
Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners
| 34 | 15-6 | 2.14 | 2.56 | 0.915 | 46 | 248 | 236.0 | 6.8 |
A strong argument can be made for Felix Hernandez deserving the AL Cy Young award over Corey Kluber last season, as he led the league in ERA and WHIP and put together what was by all accounts the best season of his career.
The 28-year-old has still never pitched in the postseason, but with a talented roster around him, that could finally change in 2015. Watching him take the ball in October could be a lot of fun.
2. Adam Wainwright (St. Louis Cardinals) vs. Jon Lester (Chicago Cubs)
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Adam Wainwright, St. Louis Cardinals
| 32 | 20-9 | 2.38 | 2.88 | 1.031 | 50 | 179 | 227.0 | 6.1 |
His heavy workload finally seemed to catch up to him last October, but Adam Wainwright has been an absolute horse atop the St. Louis Cardinals rotation for several years now.
With his Sunday night start to begin the season, Wainwright will become one of just six pitchers in Cardinals history to make at least four Opening Day starts, though he still has a ways to go to catch Bob Gibson's team record of 10.
Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs
| 32 | 16-11 | 2.46 | 2.80 | 1.102 | 48 | 220 | 219.2 | 4.6 |
The Chicago Cubs made it no secret that Jon Lester was their top target heading into the offseason, and they got their guy during the winter meetings with a six-year, $155 million deal.
He gives the young team the the bona fide ace it was lacking and immediately brings legitimacy to the idea that it can take a big step forward and contend. The 31-year-old is 6-4 with a 2.57 ERA in 84 career postseason innings.
1. James Shields (San Diego Padres) vs. Clayton Kershaw (Los Angeles Dodgers)
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James Shields, San Diego Padres
| 34 | 14-8 | 3.21 | 3.59 | 1.181 | 44 | 180 | 227.0 | 3.3 |
After the San Diego Padres spent most of the winter addressing the offense, signing James Shields to a four-year, $75 million deal was the cherry on top of a terrific offseason.
The 33-year-old made four Opening Day starts during his time with the Tampa Bay Rays and then two more while he was with the Kansas City Royals, so the stage will be nothing new for him.
Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers
| 27 | 21-3 | 1.77 | 1.81 | 0.857 | 31 | 239 | 198.1 | 7.5 |
The best pitcher in the game today, Clayton Kershaw will open the 2015 season working on a string of four consecutive NL ERA titles, including an ERA under 2.00 the past two seasons. No qualified pitcher has done that three years in a row since Pete Alexander pulled it off from 1915-17.
Kershaw also turned in one of the best Opening Day performances of all time back in 2013 when he threw a shutout and also homered, more or less single-handedly leading the Dodgers to a victory.
All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference, unless otherwise noted.
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