Todd McShay NFL Mock Draft 2015: Notable Picks from ESPN Guru's 4th Mock

We're exactly one month away from commissioner Roger Goodell stepping to the podium for the start of the 2015 NFL draft.  

Yes, you read that right. One month. Still.

After the combine, a drove of predraft workouts, high-profile trades and no less than 5,000 television arguments, we still have no idea what exactly is going through the heads of NFL general managers. The reality is we probably won't even have an idea come April 30; things are just going to happen.

That said, it won't stop anyone from trying to figure out the correct combination of team and player. Fan mock drafts are all the rage across team-specific message boards, websites are racking up views with generated pick scenarios, and experts are all trying to one-up each other to get a boost.

That brings us to ESPN's Todd McShay, who released his fourth mock draft Monday. McShay has cultivated a reputation over the years that makes him one of the most respected analysts on the planet, and he's typically good at being ahead of the curve. With that in mind, let's take a quick look at McShay's latest look at the first round.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
4	Oakland Raiders	Leonard Williams, DE, USC
5	Washington	Dante Fowler, DE, Florida
6	New York Jets	Randy Gregory, OLB, Nebraska
7	Chicago Bears	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
8	Atlanta Falcons	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
9	New York Giants	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
10	St. Louis Rams	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
11	Minnesota Vikings	La'El Collins, OT, LSU
12	Cleveland Browns	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13	New Orleans Saints	Vic Beasley, DE/OLB, Clemson
14	Miami Dolphins	Breshad Perriman, WR, UCF
15	San Francisco 49ers	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
16	Houston Texans	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Oklahoma
17	San Diego Chargers	Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Cameron Erving, OL, Florida State
19	Cleveland Browns (via Buffalo)	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Landon Collins, S, Alabama
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	Arik Armstead, DL, Oregon
23	Detroit Lions	Malcom Brown, DT, Texas
24	Arizona Cardinals	Bud Dupree, OLB, Kentucky
25	Carolina Panthers	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
26	Baltimore Ravens	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
27	Dallas Cowboys	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
28	Denver Broncos	D.J. Humphries, OT, Florida
29	Indianapolis Colts	Eli Harold, OLB, Virginia
30	Green Bay Packers	Marcus Peters, CB, Washington
31	New Orleans Saints (via Seattle)	Kevin Johnson, CB, Wake Forest
32	New England Patriots	Byron Jones, CB, Connecticut

Takeaways

Marcus Mariota Won't Get Past No. 2

Now here's something we haven't seen since, I don't know, roughly the middle of January: Marcus Mariota moving up on a mock draft board. The Oregon standout spent much of the season as the draft's default No. 1 pick, only to fall behind Jameis Winston despite beating him head-to-head for reasons that still remain unclear.

Draft history is filled with shots of stars waiting and waiting and waiting to hear their name called, often through no real fault of their own. Sometimes, that wait winds up being Johnny Manziel and makes everyone who passed look smart. Other times, you have San Francisco 49ers fans wondering for decades what would have happened had they selected Aaron Rodgers over Alex Smith.

It appears fine performances at the combine and his pro day have helped Mariota right the ship. McShay indicates the likeliest options are either the Tennessee Titans selecting him outright or executing a trade with a team looking to move up. The New York Jets and the St. Louis Rams are mentioned as potential suitors, but you cannot put it past a team like Cleveland trying to use its picks to move up.

Either way, Mariota can probably stop worrying about a free-fall come April. Even if he doesn't go No. 2, he's returned to lock status for the top five.

Hello Breshad Perriman

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

The last time McShay turned in a mock draft, wide receiver Breshad Perriman wasn't a first-round pick. He wasn't even listed among the next 10 best players available after the first 32 selections. One marvelous pro day later, however, and Perriman has not only ascended into the first round but is coming off of the board at No. 14 to the Miami Dolphins.

The UCF standout wowed scouts last week with his athleticism, with unofficial times of his 40-yard dash ranging from 4.15 seconds to 4.27 seconds, per Shannon Owens-Green of the Orlando Sentinel. To put that in perspective, the 4.27-second time would have put him within hundredths of a second of the official combine record.

"I felt good about it, but at the same time I felt I could've done better. I felt like I could've run a little faster," Perriman said, per Ryan Gillespie of the Central Florida Future. "I was pretty eager to run another one."

Measuring in at 6'3" and 225 pounds, Perriman has all of the physical tools a team could ever want in a wideout. He's a solid leaper, posting a 37-inch vertical, and he flashed his first-step quickness on his pair of jaw-dropping 40s. Couple that with two straight seasons averaging better than 20 yards per reception, and teams in need of a deep threat are going to look long and hard at him.

Perriman is still fourth among receivers coming off of the board, behind Alabama's Amari Cooper, West Virginia's Kevin White and Louisville's DeVante Parker. He'll probably stay there for the remainder of the process; the other trio have better overall resumes and carry less risk. But among freak athletes with a high ceiling and a low floor, it appears Perriman is pulling ahead of Dorial Green-Beckham.

That's a lot more than we could have said a month ago.

Todd Gurley Is Back, Baby

For much of the draft process, it appeared as if Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon had the best chance of breaking the two-year streak of running backs not appearing in the first round. Gordon is coming off of the second-best season in college football history in terms of rushing yards, as he averaged nearly eight yards per carry for his career and is an all-around stellar player.

Oh yeah, and he's not coming off of a complete ACL reconstruction. 

Gurley, the man who was initially expected to break up the running back drought, is coming off of such an injury. He was limited to six games last season due to suspension and injury. Though he finished with 911 rushing yards and nine touchdowns in those contests, it was the second straight year he'd missed time, and there is no guarantee he'll be 100 percent by September.

All of those are red flags at a position in which even the slightest tint of pink can send a player plummeting down draft boards. It seemed logical, then, that Gordon would come off of the board late in the first, and Gurley would be selected early in the second. Teams are far more comfortable taking a risk in the second round when they've already had an opportunity to select a player.

John Bazemore/Associated Press

More and more, though, it appears Gurley won't be on the board in the 30s. McShay pegs the former Georgia star at No. 17 to the San Diego Chargers, which is about the apex of his value. You can see why one might be transfixed by Gurley on film. He combines a Marshawn Lynch level of toughness with solid hands and breakaway speed downfield. Before the injury, it wouldn't have been a shock to see him off of the board within the first 10 selections.

“He’s a guy who has all the talent in the world, but he works like he’s a guy who’s never touched the field,” Georgia receiver Chris Conley said, per Zac Ellis of Sports Illustrated. “As cliché as it sounds, he’s the complete package of a running back.”

The Chargers need a running back after Ryan Mathews departed for Philadelphia. But after spending years frustrated by Mathews' near-constant trips to the injury report, will San Diego brass be willing to pull the trigger on another first-rounder with those red flags? We'll see in a month.

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter.