Heading South Up North: Can Toronto Raptors Regain Magic by Playoff Time?
The Toronto Raptors' stretch of inferior play since the All-Star break has left many wondering whether the team can recapture the magic that made them so formidable at the beginning of the year.
A 23-7 start to the season now sits as a reminder of how prosperous things once were. It puts into perspective how unsettling the 8-13 run since Feb. 20 has been, conjuring up doubt over whether the Raptors were ever as good as they once portrayed themselves to be.
Perhaps the rest of the league is merely catching on to a franchise that is now considered one of the head honchos of the Eastern Conference. The underdog mantra is dead, having been replaced with a large bullseye placed squarely on the players' backs.
Maybe it's just the grind of an 82-game campaign taking its toll on the roster. That rings especially true for All-Star point guard Kyle Lowry, who's been out of action with back spasms for five of the last six games.
Toronto's issues go way beyond stiffer competition and some bumps and bruises, though.
The defense has been atrocious, shots aren't falling like they used to, and playing 48 minutes of consistent basketball has become a rarity versus a regularity.
To think the Raptors will cure all that ails them over these final eight games is absurd. Their best bet is to head into the postseason with as much momentum as possible while attempting to improve on some key areas along the way.
Remainder of Schedule
A 99-96 victory over the 50-24 Houston Rockets on March 30 was Toronto's last game against a team with a winning record this season.
No team in the East has had an easier schedule since March 17 than the Raptors, per John Schuhmann of NBA.com. Toronto has gone 4-3 since then.
A 6-2 record to close out the year would have the Raptors finishing with 50 wins, a bridge the franchise has never crossed before.
The Raptors' 30-9 record against teams below the .500 mark would lead one to believe that these final eight outings will be a walk in the park. Unfortunately, a majority of those matchups come against squads with a lot to play for over the next few weeks.
| Date | Opponent | Record | Last Meeting |
| April 1 | @ Timberwolves | 16-58 | 105-100, TOR |
| April 3 | @ Nets | 32-40 | 109-93, BKN |
| April 4 | vs. Celtics | 33-41 | 109-96, TOR |
| April 8 | @ Hornets | 31-42 | 103-94, CHA |
| April 10 | @ Magic | 22-52 | 95-82, TOR |
| April 11 | @ Heat | 34-39 | 102-92, TOR |
| April 14 | @ Celtics | 33-41 | 109-96, TOR |
| April 15 | vs. Hornets | 31-42 | 103-94, CHA |
The Miami Heat, Boston Celtics, Brooklyn Nets and Charlotte Hornets are all in the running for the final two playoff seeds in the East. They won't be resting any of their key players like playoff locks in the Atlanta Hawks and Cleveland Cavaliers.
| Seed | Team | Record | Percentage | Games Back |
| No. 7 | Miami Heat | 34-39 | 0.466 | N/A |
| No. 8 | Brooklyn Nets | 33-40 | 0.452 | 1.0 |
| No. 9 | Boston Celtics | 33-41 | 0.446 | 1.5 |
| No. 10 | Indiana Pacers | 32-42 | 0.432 | 2.5 |
| No. 11 | Charlotte Hornets | 31-42 | 0.425 | 3.0 |
TSN analyst Jack Armstrong believes that with the defense still in shambles, the Raptors may be vulnerable enough to drop some of these "easy" games, per TSN.ca:
"I hear all this talk about an easy schedule down the stretch, with the 'D' the way it is right now; I see no 'gimmes' when you can't consistently stop folks. On top of that, the Raptor will be playing a bunch of teams with lots to play for. Forget rest and maintenance--this team has holes to patch and every opportunity to practice really hard and correct mistakes is going to be vital to shake this club out of the doldrums. Not an easy fix.
"
The Raptors are 5-4 against those four aforementioned teams.
"They can be real dangerous because they're going to go out there every single night knowing their life is on the line, trying to make the playoffs," said DeMar DeRozan, per Josh Lewenberg of TSN.ca. "So you've got to go in there with a lot of respect for [those] teams because they're going to go out there and play until the last second."
Only one game separates the fourth-seeded Raptors (44-30) from the third-seeded Chicago Bulls (45-29). The Washington Wizards (41-33) are three games back of Toronto, so seeding in the middle of the conference is up for grabs as well.
With the defense in the state it's in, no game from here on out will be a surefire victory.
The Downfall of the Defense
It was one year ago when the Raptors were a top-10 defensive unit in the NBA, allowing 102.4 points per 100 possessions in 2013-14 (10th).
Dwane Casey had his players buying into team defense and dictating where the basketball would go. It helped strengthen his reputation as one of the top defensive-minded coaches in the league.
That's what makes it all the more baffling that the Raptors have fallen off the map entirely in that department.
| Year | DefRtg | Opp FG% | Opp 3P% | Opp PTS |
| 2013-14 | 10th | 9th | 16th | 7th |
| 2014-15 | 25th | 26th | 15th | 22nd |
"Our whole theme from here on out, not only [Monday] but Wednesday night and the rest of the way is going to be defence,” Casey said, per Eric Smith of Sportsnet.ca. “We’re going to find ways to score. So we’re going to have to have a defensive focus.”
Toronto has allowed opponents to shoot over 47 percent from the field on 37 different occasions (with eight more games to go) this season, in comparison to just 28 times all of last year, per Basketball-Reference.com.
It's the slow starts to games that aren't doing the Raptors any favors either.
| Statistic | Amount | Rank |
| Points | 26.0 | 25th |
| FG% | 47.8 | 29th |
| 3P% | 40.1 | 29th |
“It’s a tale of two teams, the first half and second half. We’re just not playing as well as we should,” said Lou Williams following a 117-107 loss to the San Antonio Spurs on March 10, per Josh Rubin of the Toronto Star.
Casey also chimed in, per Rubin: "We shouldn’t have to wait to get kicked in the teeth and hit in the head before we start playing. It’s like I told the players, it doesn’t matter what seven or eight guys are out there doing it, as long as we are playing hard, playing with some intellect, playing together as a unit, it doesn’t matter who it is."
So why the slow starts then? Do the players trust the offense enough to where they feel they can overcome any deficit? Can they afford to take quarters off?
Of course not. There's no urgency when the Raptors come out of the gates. Guards are getting blown by while the frontcourt fails to put up much resistance afterwards.
Inserting James Johnson, one of the strongest defenders on the team, back into the starting lineup could help matters. Casey shaving his rotation before the postseason has made Johnson a casualty of circumstance, though. There doesn't appear to be enough minutes to go around these days.
He's had two DNPs in the last eight games, including five minutes of action against the Minnesota Timberwolves on March 18.
Casey also wants Johnson to make smarter decisions on the defensive end, including not leaving his man when he sees a teammate in trouble, per Lewenberg: "James' strength is also his weakness. He feels like he can help on a lot of things [defensively] and gets himself in trouble."
Toronto thrives when it's forcing turnovers and wreaking havoc on the ball-handler. Daniel Hackett of RaptorsHQ.com believes Johnson's knack for moving around and taking chances, despite leaving his man, isn't such a terrible thing:
"Let's consider that for a moment. Since the Rudy Gay trade in December 2013, here are the Raptors' league ranks, month by month, in defensive rating and turnovers forced.
Month | Defensive Rating (DRTG) Rank | Opp. Turnovers (TOV) Rank
Dec | 11th | 5th
Jan | 4th | 11th
Feb | 15th | 21st
Mar | 13th | 13th
Apr | 17th | 21st
Nov | 10th | 7th
Dec | 20th | 12th
Jan | 26th | 14th
Feb | 9th | 5th
Mar | 29th | 26thSo, aggressive play leading to turnovers appears to the be key to Casey's defensive scheme being successful, rather than conservative play, as is being suggested by Lewenberg and Casey. Is this a matter of Casey simply not seeing what his defensive system is? It's controlled chaos - the scramble defense and small ball being the most obvious examples - and if you skew too close to control rather than chaos it's just a matter of screens and passes until the opposition breaks through.
"
Playing it safe hasn't worked for Casey, so why not go the "controlled chaos" route that Hackett is referring to?
It just needs to be executed well enough so that the opposition isn't getting open lanes to the basket through blown coverage.
Too Little, Too Late?
It's easy to take your foot off the gas as the regular season winds down when your entire year rides on what you accomplish in mid-April and beyond.
The Raptors know this. It's part of the reason why they've struggled to stay motivated.
"We understand we're playing for the playoffs," DeRozan said, per Lewenberg. "We've got to play great basketball going into the playoffs. We can't play mediocre basketball and expect to come [into] Game 1 and play at an all-time high if we haven't been playing good the last eight games. So that's our whole thing and our whole motivation now is to really play at a high level, especially on the defensive end these eight games. I think that'll carry over into the playoffs."
These final games still hold weight. Home-court advantage isn't set in stone. If the Raptors land the No. 4 seed but finish with a worse record than the No. 5 seed, the Air Canada Centre faithful will have to wait until Games 3 and 4 to see their beloved Raptors in the opening round.
Clinching a second-straight Atlantic division crown warmed hearts. Potentially winning 50 games would boost egos. That all means nothing if Toronto falls on its face come the playoffs, though.
The magic may indeed be gone. The spectacular start to the year may have been the result of a home-heavy schedule for a team that peaked too early.
If the players can't find it within themselves to turn up the dial when games really start to count, then Masai Ujiri will have no choice but to make drastic changes over the summer.
A clean bill of health for Lowry is vital. A respectable showing from a defense on a downward slope is necessary.
Everything else will fall into place.
Hopefully.
Christopher Walder is a Featured Columnist for the Toronto Raptors at Bleacher Report. He's also a staff writer for Raptors HQ at SB Nation. You can follow him on Twitter at @WalderSports.
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