NFL Playoff Prediction Guide

Really? A 9-7 team from last year that traded for a big name quarterback seems to me to be a team that plenty of people expect to make the playoffs.

Peter Schrager even understands the rules of picking playoffs teams and will probably be one of the few columnists to pick five or six new playoff teams, yet his sleeper should be the favorite to win the division.

A sleeper is an Atlanta or Miami from last year, a nobody.

This is the famed annual predictions column, where I strive for perfection, 12 for 12. This goal is almost impossible with the NFL because of the playoff turnover that takes place every year.

Since the NFL went to 12 teams in the playoffs in 1990, this has been the number of new teams in the playoffs every year.

5-6-5-5-4-5-5-5-7-6-6-5-8-5-7-7-6-7

Only once in 18 years have eight of the previous year’s playoff teams made it the next year. In the last 10 years, the average is over six new teams. This knowledge is helpful in predicting teams and very easy for football experts to understand.

There will be a follow-up column where I analyze the picks of the football experts. This article is my best attempt at predicting the playoff teams and give you a good guide to help with your predictions.

Playoff Teams Last Year

Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Miami, San Diego, Indianapolis, Baltimore, NY Giants, Carolina, Minnesota, Arizona, Atlanta, Philadelphia

Teams that Will Struggle to Make the Playoffs Again

Arizona: The only Super Bowl loser to make the playoffs the next year in the last nine years were the Seahawks, and that was probably more of the sports Gods proclaiming that they got a raw deal.

Carolina: Since 2002, the NFC South Winner has not made the playoffs the next season.

Minnesota:  If Brett Favre is the answer, what is possibly the question?

Philadelphia: Michael Vick is a side note for this team, but remember that the Eagles needed a Cowboys no-show vs. the Ravens and a Bucs choke job to even make the playoffs. The Eagles are already having a lot of injuries, and McNabb has Jason Peters watching his blind side. Good luck to you, Donovan.

Miami: They came so far out of nowhere last year, and benefited from a really easy schedule. They won’t be bad but they will have a fall back to around .500 this year.

In your predictions, make sure that you exclude at least four of those teams (one may surprise).

I think Pittsburgh and San Diego are pretty solid to make the playoffs again this year. Pittsburgh’s schedule looks to be very easy this year, and San Diego is still better than any team in the division and will not have the Gary Player travel schedule nightmare this year. That means I need to find one or two more teams from the remaining five from last year.

Playoff Teams from Last Year That Could Go Either Way

Tennessee: The Titans had a fantastic regular season last year. Can Kerry Collins lead the team to the playoffs again? With a really good coach and a strong defense, they would have to miss with a 10-6 record.

New York Giants: I think the Plaxico Burress fiasco derailed their season last year, and they still finished as the No. 1 seed. The Giants still look to have enough talent to have a winning record.

Atlanta: At first glance, I thought they would absolutely not make the playoffs, then I tried to find better teams and struggled. Matt Ryan was great last year and now has Tony Gonzales. Plus they didn’t win the division, so the NFC South curse doesn’t affect them.

Baltimore: The Ravens schedule is a bit more difficult than Pittsburgh’s, and like Atlanta they also could suffer from their QB’s sophomore jinx. Baltimore was also the No. 6 seed last year.

Indianapolis: The Colts have a new coach, but still have Peyton Manning. The Colts almost derailed last year but got a few breaks against the Texans and Vikings.

Plus consider this fact; since the NFL went to 12 teams in the playoffs, no team has made the playoffs eight years in a row.

Twenty teams did not make the playoffs last year, and I have broken those teams into a few categories to help pick the 6 new teams.

Teams That Have Little or No Shot to Make the Playoffs

Detroit: I know Miami went from 1 win to 11. Detroit could increase their win total by 10 and still not make the playoffs.

Cincinnati: The last time I checked, Marvin Lewis is still the coach and Mike Brown is still the GM.

Jacksonville: I just read that they expect zero sellouts this year. Jaguar fever, catch it. Just move already.

St. Louis: Mark Bulger is still the starting QB. They have a lot of problems.

Buffalo: As much as I am a Bills fan, I am realistic in understanding that if they can’t have a winning record after starting 5-1, they aren’t making the playoffs when they’ll probably start the season 0-1.

Tampa Bay: They only have seven home games, and look to be pretty bad.

Denver: I don’t think Kyle Orton will be as bad as everyone believes, but this is a team that is a mess with a disgruntled star and had a below-average defense last year. The Denver schedule also looks like a beast during the middle of it.

That leaves 13 teams for six potential spots. This step in predicting the teams is the toughest, since the NFL is so full of parity and so many teams can have one bad thing happen that will derail a season. See the Cowboys or Patriots from last year. I can just provide my hunch.

Non-Playoffs Teams With A Shot to Make the Playoffs

New England: If Tom Brady is healthy, the Pats are a shoo-in to win the AFC East. If he gets injured, Andrew Walter is in control, and all bets are off.

New York Jets: They probably below in the no-shot category, but I don’t know the effect Favre had last year, and Sanchez may bring life to a team that showed glimpses of being very good. Plus someone has to compete with the Pats for the division.

Kansas City: They may also belong in the no shot category, but the Herm Edwards factor can’t be discounted. The Chiefs were close in a good number of games last year, but Edwards was so bad that he actually created losses out of wins.

Oakland: I don’t know how Oakland would make the playoffs, but they definitely improved later in the season and some AFC team has to be a complete surprise.

Cleveland: The Browns are on this list for schedule mostly. They definitely should be at nine wins, just because of who they play and the new energy from Eric Mangini.

Houston: Their toughest road game outside of the division is either at Miami or at Arizona. The hurricane last year really threw the Texans off, and the awful meltdown against the Colts ruined their season.

New Orleans: They actually get to play home games in the second half of this year. They also finished last in the NFC South last year, which usually guarantees a playoff berth.

Dallas: The Cowboys imploded last year, and in theory should be better this year. The main question is if Roy Williams can become the No. 1 receiver the Cowboys traded for.

Chicago: The Bears upgraded at quarterback for fantasy purposes, and Cutler has already shown the immaturity that made him the 8-8 star he was in Denver. I just don’t see the Bears defense getting any younger or better.

Green Bay: No Brett Favre and they are now completely Aaron Rodgers team. If they can get any semblance of a defense, they’ll make the playoffs.

Seattle: I’m not sure how much Matt Hasselbeck has left in the tank, but I think Seattle feels pretty comfortable with Seneca Wallace, and luckily the NFC West will probably take nine wins to take the title.

San Francisco: They are the biggest unknown of any team in the league. If Michael Crabtree doesn’t sign, do they have enough talent to win?

Washington – The Redskins are most likely the team where a few small breaks will differentiate between 7-9 and 10-6. If an 8-8 team makes the playoffs in the NFC this year, it will probably be them.

Now you can see how difficult it is to go 12 for 12. I will give my best attempt and hope I get 9.

In the AFC, I predict New England wins the East, Pittsburgh wins the Central (I meant North), Houston wins the South, and San Diego wins the West. My wild card teams are Tennessee and Cleveland (a crazy sleeper indeed, I debated between them and Baltimore).

In the NFC, I predict Dallas wins the East, Green Bay wins the North, Atlanta wins the South, and Seattle wins the West. My wild card teams are New Orleans and the New York Giants.

I’m sure that some of the people reading this will get more correct, but at least this can serve as some knowledge. After reading this you should be smarter than paid NFL experts.

Before the season starts, I will analyze the experts’ picks and have fun in showing that you, the reader, know more than they do.