Iowa Hawkeyes vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The Iowa Hawkeyes are on a 7-1 run straight up, with six covers, after demolishing the Davidson Wildcats in their NCAA men's basketball tournament opener Friday night.

But do the seventh-seeded Hawkeyes have enough to hang with the second-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs in a South Regional bout Sunday evening in Seattle?

Opening spread

The Bulldogs opened as five-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Iowa to cover the spread?

The Hawkeyes reached Sunday's round of 32 by dumping Davidson Friday 83-52, covering easily as three-point favorites. Iowa steamed out to a 15-point lead in the first half, let the Wildcats get within six early in the second half and then pulled away from there—ending the game on a 39-14 run.

On the night, the Hawkeyes shot 51 percent from the floor and held Davidson—which shot 47 percent on the season—to just 33 percent shooting. So Iowa, which just a month or so ago looked like it might miss the NCAA tournament, has won seven of its last eight games SU, going 6-1-1 ATS in the process.

The Hawkeyes are also now 9-7 SU and 7-7 ATS this season against teams that made the Big Dance; that's a lot of games against good competition. Iowa is shooting only 43 percent from the floor this season but is holding opponents to just 39 percent shooting.

Why pick Gonzaga to cover the spread?

The Bulldogs advanced to Sunday by holding off North Dakota State Friday 86-76. Gonzaga fell behind early—as the Bison shot hot out of the gate—but used a 20-4 run to take over. The Zags, favored by 17 points, stretched their lead to 18 with about 15 minutes to go but took their feet off the gas and almost let North Dakota State back in the game.

On the night, Gonzaga shot 52 percent from the floor and out-rebounded North Dakota State 35-24.

So the Zags have won 26 of their last 27 games, and the only one they lost in that span didn't matter, as they had already clinched the WCC regular-season title. Gonzaga is also 8-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS this season against teams that made the NCAA tournament.

The Bulldogs lead the nation in field-goal shooting at 52 percent, rank seventh in three-point shooting at almost 41 percent and are also limiting foes to just 39 percent field-goal shooting.

Smart betting pick

Iowa is playing its best ball of the season but might have spent most of its tournament ammunition in Friday's victory. The Hawkeyes are also still a team that in the last five weeks has lost games to Minnesota, Northwestern and Penn State. Gonzaga, meanwhile, shoots the ball too well to be an upset victim in this spot.

The smart money here resides with the Zags.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power ranks)

Iowa Hawkeyes: No. 38

Gonzaga Bulldogs: No. 12

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