Albany Great Danes vs. Oklahoma Sooners Betting, March Madness Analysis, Pick

The third-seeded Oklahoma Sooners will take on one of the hottest teams in the country when they meet the 14th-seeded Albany Great Danes in their opening NCAA tournament East Region game Friday.

The Great Danes have won 19 of their 20 games played so far in 2015, yet they have gone 0-4 against the spread during that stretch as they attempt to pull off the upset against the Sooners.

Opening spread

The Sooners opened as 12.5-point favorites. (Compare lines and consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Albany to cover the spread

Some may wonder how a team on such a roll like Albany could possibly be winless ATS this year. That is an excellent question, but first of all, the Great Danes have only had five lined games over the entire season. Secondly, they were within two points of the point spread in each of their last three lined games, barely falling short.

In fact, Albany's past two games have been decided by a combined three points, including a 51-50 victory against the Stony Brook Seawolves as a three-point favorite in the America East tournament championship game.

The Great Danes went 15-1 during the regular season in the America East, with the lone loss coming against Stony Brook, 59-56, at home on February 17. In fact, three of the team’s eight losses overall were decided by exactly three points.

Why pick Oklahoma to cover the spread

Oklahoma seems to be peaking at the right time with 10 wins in their last 13 games. The Sooners also played in what is perceived to be a strong Big 12 conference that sent seven teams into the NCAA tournament this year—that's tied with the Big Ten for the most of any league.

Even though they struggled ATS down the stretch with a 1-7 record, that immediately followed a string of five straight covers.

Oklahoma also earned some of its biggest wins early in the season, topping each of the UCLA Bruins and Butler Bulldogs by double digits while also covering the spread. The Sooners have been a good defensive team, as well, limiting opponents to 70 points or less in six of their past eight, which could be an issue for an Albany team that has been offensively challenged at times.

Smart betting pick

Neither one of these teams is really capable of putting a lot of points up on the scoreboard. Instead, this matchup has all the makings of a low-scoring affair, especially with the Great Danes winning by scoring 51 and 60 points in their last two games, each of which went under the total for that game.

Likewise, Oklahoma has seen four of its past five finish under along with its first four lined games against nonconference opponents this season. Bet this game to follow those trends and go under, as well.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark power rankings)

Albany Great Danes: No. 77

Oklahoma Sooners: No. 51

March Madness betting trends

Oklahoma went 1-7 ATS in its final eight games of the season.

Oklahoma is 0-3 SU and ATS in its past three NCAA tournament games.

Albany went 19-1 SU in its final 20 games of the season.

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