Mississippi Rebels vs. BYU Cougars Betting Line, March Madness Analysis, Pick

Two teams capable of advancing past the next round will meet in the First Four Tuesday when the Ole Miss Rebels and BYU Cougars battle as No. 11 seeds in Dayton.

The winner gets to play the sixth-seeded Xavier Musketeers Thursday in Jacksonville, and each team has played tough against other NCAA tournament teams this season. The Rebels upset the Cincinnati Bearcats at a neutral site and the Oregon Ducks as road underdogs late in 2014, and the Cougars fell to the Purdue Boilermakers and Utah Utes at home during the first month of the season by a combined six points.

Opening spread
The Cougars opened as two-point favorites. (Compare Lines and Consensus on the Odds Shark matchup report.)

Why pick Mississippi to cover the spread

Ole Miss is more battle-tested than BYU despite ending the regular season on a slide.

The Rebels dropped three of their past four games and were then upset by the South Carolina Gamecocks as 4.5-point favorites in the SEC tournament. But before that rough closing stretch, they won eight of nine games and went 6-2 against the spread, twice beating the Florida Gators as underdogs.

Overall, Ole Miss played in a superior conference—which was led by the nation's best team in the top-ranked Kentucky Wildcats—compared to the Cougars, who lost two of three meetings with the Gonzaga Bulldogs.

Gonzaga was one of only three teams from the WCC that totaled 20 overall wins. Meanwhile, the Rebels are one of six teams in the SEC that has 20 wins or more, and all of them are playing in the Big Dance.

Why pick BYU to cover the spread

BYU enters the NCAA tournament having won 10 of 12 games, with the lone losses coming on the road against the Pepperdine Waves and in the WCC title game against Gonzaga.

The Cougars upset the Bulldogs 73-70 as 13.5-point road underdogs on February 28 for their biggest win of the season, and they seem to be playing their best basketball right now even though they were blown out by Gonzaga 91-75 in the aforementioned conference championship.

BYU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games and 6-1 versus the line in its past seven as a favorite. The Cougars were the No. 10 seed in the Big Dance a year ago and will be extra motivated to turn in a better performance after the seventh-seeded Oregon Ducks crushed them 87-68 as five-point underdogs.

Smart betting pick

Current form definitely favors BYU in this game, although the team also went into last year's NCAA tournament having won 10 of 12 before fizzling out in a lopsided loss to the Ducks.

Ole Miss was 9-2 ATS as an underdog this season and will be able to keep this game close against the Cougars, if not pull off the straight-up upset.

The strength of schedule and quality of competition throughout the year simply favors the Rebels, and that could be the difference in terms of who faces Xavier next.

Power rankings (per Odds Shark)

Mississippi Rebels: No. 102

BYU Cougars: No. 18

March Madness betting trends

BYU ended the year on an 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS run.

BYU is 6-1 ATS in their past seven games as favorites.

Ole Miss was 9-2 ATS this season as underdogs.

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