NCAA Basketball Tournament 2015: Predictions for Pre-Bracket Release Favorites

While a few conference tournaments are yet to be decided, we now have a pretty good idea of the resumes most of the top teams can present. Yes, the Big Ten tournament in particular could alter a few seedings, but in general, we have a pretty good idea of where these teams will end up on the bracket.

Ah, but how deep will the top contenders go once the tournament begins? Let's explore that question in more depth.

Kentucky

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The Wildcats are going to win the national championship, folks.

There isn't a team in the country that has their overall talent, depth or the postseason experience of coach John Calipari, who has remarkably once again managed to mold a unit with a number of future NBA players into a cohesive team with players who understand their roles and execute them.

Six players are averaging eight or more points per game. Four players average six or more rebounds. Nine players average 10 or more minutes per contest. Kentucky's rotation and depth not only means it comes at teams in waves, it also means that arguably no team in the country will have fresher players heading into the tournament. Nobody on Kentucky averages more than 25 minutes per game, after all.

The Wildcats are stalwarts defensively. They block shots and contest just about everything. Few teams are better on the offensive glass. They can run. They can play in the halfcourt. They are dominant. 

Anything can happen in the NCAA tournament. But even so, few things would be more surprising than Kentucky failing to conquer March Madness this year.

Villanova

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Villanova has earned its likely No. 1 seed. The team won the Big East regular-season and conference tournament championships. It went 5-1 against RPI Top 25 teams and 13-1 against RPI Top 50 teams, per ESPN. It will hit the tournament having won 15 straight games. 

Oh, and in case you had any doubt about Nova's ability to make a run in this year's tournament, it is ranked top 15 in adjusted offensive efficiency (fourth) and defensive efficiency (13th) at KenPom.com, an excellent indication that it can compete for a national title.

According to Vegas Insider, 11 of the last 12 champions have finished top 18 in offensive efficiency and top 21 in defensive efficiency, with upstart UConn being the exception last year.

Sure, folks will argue that the Big East isn't the strongest conference out there. Neither was the SEC, and folks aren't doubting Kentucky. But perhaps what makes this team special goes well beyond any stats or measurements, as Reuben Frank of CSN Philly suggested Saturday:

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Really, all you need to know about Villanova’s win over Xavier Saturday night in the Big East Tournament championship game is that with Villanova up by 20 points and 2½ minutes left, junior guard Ryan Arcidiacono dove headlong into a TV camera at the baseline to try to save a loose ball.

“That’s just Villanova basketball, that’s how we play,” Arcidiacono said. “We play hard for 40 minutes no matter what the score is. That’s the Villanova way. I would have done that, walk-ons would have done that, everyone would have done that. Even if it was a 50-point game.”

This is Villanova basketball.

They play smart. They play hard. They play disciplined. They play unselfish. No matter who the opponent, no matter what the situation.

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The Wildcats have experience. They blitzkrieg opponents with a stable of talented guards and swingmen. No, they don't have great size, but you can get by without size in the tournament. Folks who haven't watched them much this year might argue that they will be the first No. 1 seed out of the tourney; folks who have watched them frequently will argue they're as likely as any team to make a run to the Final Four.

Don't sleep on Villanova. This is a team that absolutely will make a deep run.

Wisconsin

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Regardless of what happens in the Big Ten tournament final, the Badgers are going to be one of the favorites at the tournament. The result of that game might influence whether they end up with a No. 1 seed, but despite their seed, they'll be a factor in the tournament. 

They have one of the best players in college basketball this season in Frank Kaminsky, Sam Dekker is a heck of a Robin to Kaminsky's Batman and the Badgers have players who have gone through the tournament before. The team's depth could hurt it, and its defensive efficiency at KenPom.com isn't of a championship level, but this is a team that will be expected to at least reach the Elite Eight.

Virginia/Duke

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For Virginia, the question is the offense. For Duke, the question is the defense. For both teams, failing to reach the ACC conference tournament final compounded the concerns.

Duke is probably the only team in the country that can stack up to Kentucky from a pure talent standpoint—or at least come close. Jahlil Okafor is the most talented player in the country, while Quinn Cook, Tyus Jones and Justice Winslow comprise a heck of a supporting cast. The Blue Devils have a chance to go deep in this tournament simply because they will be more talented than most teams they line up across from.

They also travel well, as Seth Davis of CBS Sports noted:

Virginia has other concerns. Two losses in the past week and the fact that Duke has the superior resume will probably drop Virginia to a No. 2 seed in the tournament, but perhaps the bigger concern is where the scoring will come from in the clutch from this team. Who will step up if the team needs a big basket in the waning moments? Who will take over if the team needs a scoring spark during a dry spell in a game.

Virginia is able to grind out wins with methodical, smart offense and suffocating defense, but in the tournament, its lack of elite talent could come back to bite it. Where Duke feels like a Final Four team, it wouldn't be surprising if Virginia was upset in the Sweet 16. 

Best of the Rest

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Arizona, Gonzaga and Kansas can all make a deserving claim to be a No. 2 seed, and each team is talented enough to make a run to the Final Four, though if you are looking for a team to make a deep run outside of the ones listed above, don't sleep on Notre Dame.

The Irish just won the ACC tournament and have an explosive talent in Jerian Grant, who could be this tournament's Shabazz Napier. Add in wins over Louisville, Duke and North Carolina this month, and Notre Dame is an excellent candidate to make a deep run.