More Drama in Store as UNC Heads into Duke Rematch with Backs Against the Wall

It's always a must-see event when Duke and North Carolina face off on a basketball court.

When they face off in March? Well, that takes things to another level.

The two rivals will meet in the regular-season ACC finale on Saturday night. UNC, who is 4-5 in its last nine games and hasn't beaten a ranked team since defeating Louisville on Jan. 10, desperately needs this win to build some much-needed momentum and confidence heading into postseason play.

Duke, who has won 10 straight games since losing to Notre Dame at the end of January, doesn't need this win to prove that it is one of the best teams in the nation and a legitimate contender for the national title.

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The Blue Devils need to win this game simply because it's against the Tar Heels.

You've heard all of the stats before, but they're worth repeating. These are, without a doubt, two of the best programs in the history of college basketball. Duke has 19 ACC tournament titles. UNC has 17. UNC has been to 18 Final Fours and won five championships; Duke has been to 15 and won four.

This is the 240th meeting between the two schools. UNC leads the overall head-to-head 133-106, but since 1977 the teams are 44-44. 

Recently, however, Duke has had the better team and better results, winning six of the last eight meetings between the two.

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The last meeting, a 92-90 OT thriller on Feb. 18 highlighted by a big Duke comeback at the end of regulation, was one of the best games of the college basketball season. 

Now, North Carolina has its eyes set on revenge. To get that, coach Roy Williams is going to need his team to play a 40-minute game and his star players to step up.

In the first matchup this season, UNC's star guard, junior Marcus Paige, only had five points. As Alex Zietlow of FanSided points out, it's crucial for Paige to be a factor in the sequel:

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Paige’s plantar fasciitis makes it hard for him to explode horizontally and vertically. Teams game plan to shut him down, as they know he is usually the engine that makes this North Carolina team go. Not to mention, Paige is naturally unselfish; he would be content with a zero-point performance as long as he comes out on top.

But the fact of the matter is, North Carolina needs their best player to score in volume against tough opponents. [J.P.] Tokoto should not end up taking more jump shots than Paige for the Heels to be successful. They simply do not have enough firepower without their main energy source.

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Paige is the heart and soul of the team. Sure, UNC has won some games this season when Paige hasn't been at his best, but if the Heels are going to get the upset, they're going to have to fire on all cylinders. 

That's because Duke is by far the better team this year.

The Blue Devils are currently ranked No. 3 in the country and have an inside track to a top seed in the NCAA tournament. They have the best player in the nation in Jahlil Okafor, a guard who can take over games in Tyus Jones (like he did at the end of the last game against UNC) and the winningest coach in college basketball history in Mike Krzyzewski.

Plus, as Duke demonstrated on Wednesday night when it thumped Wake Forest, the team is still playing like it has something to prove.

But while North Carolina is ranked No. 19 in the nation and is certainly not having an elite season, the team is still one to watch out for.

The Tar Heels unquestionably have more depth than Duke. Besides Paige, players Brice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, Justin Jackson, Joel Berry II, Nate Britt and Tokoto are all dangerous threats. 

This UNC team is also scrappy and aggressive, particularly on the boards. The Heels lead the nation in assists and are sixth in rebounding rate. And, while they've struggled much more over the past two months than Duke has, the Heels have a two-game winning streak.

Most recently, North Carolina absolutely demolished Georgia Tech 81-49.

"Coach told us don't worry about Duke until we get this game over with," Berry said after the Georgia Tech game, as reported by The Associated Press (via ESPN). "Now our mind is on Duke, and it gives us a lot of momentum."

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The Tar Heels might be underdogs, but they're certainly not slouches. It also helps that they have the power of desperation on their side.

UNC needs this win to get a better seeding—both in the ACC and NCAA tournaments. A top-four seed in both would be a big boost for the team, and it's right on the brink in both cases.

In the ACC tournament, a top-four seed would mean an extra bye. While the exact seeding scenarios are very complicated, a win over Duke could only help UNC.

In the NCAA tournament, a top-four seed means the Heels wouldn't have to play a team seeded ahead of them before (at least) the Sweet 16. Joe Lunardi of ESPN currently has UNC as a projected No. 5 seed, but a high-profile win over Duke would go a long way toward improving it.

Perhaps most importantly, UNC doesn't want to go into the postseason with its most recent significant win coming more than two months ago. Mentally, a win over the No. 3 team in the country in March would help this squad put its winter woes in the past.

Plus, it's Duke. There's really no extra motivation needed.

This game will be in Chapel Hill in the Dean Dome, so UNC will have the crowd on its side. In this matchup, that's often the deciding factor.

We've learned time and time again in this rivalry that anything can happen once these two storied programs take the court. Expect the unexpected Saturday night.