Latest Sleeper Rankings for the 2015 NCAA Tournament
Do you feel a bit madder this week than you did last week?
Well, you should—because it's finally March.
We're into the final week of the regular season, which means conference-tournament play and Selection Sunday are just around the corner. With that in mind, we decided to update the 2015 NCAA tournament Sleeper Rankings.
For consistency and transparency, our definition of a sleeper team is exactly the same as it was last week: teams currently ranked lower than No. 16 in the AP Top 25 (and therefore theoretically would be lower than a No. 4 seed) that we think have the best chance of making it to the second weekend of the tournament—or well beyond.
This means there are a couple of teams that fell in the AP Top 25 rankings this week and therefore became eligible for this list. One team, Baylor, is now officially ranked too high to be considered a sleeper anymore.
Get it? Got it? Good.
Here are our updated sleeper rankings for the 2015 NCAA tournament.
8. North Carolina State
1 of 8
Stats: 18-12, sixth in ACC (9-8); unranked
Last Week's Sleeper Ranking: 5
Why They're Here
North Carolina State suffered an embarrassment when it lost to Boston College—of all teams—over the weekend. It was another in a long string of letdowns that the Wolfpack are infamous for after upsetting top teams.
But that loss wasn't enough to knock North Carolina State off this list. After all, the Wolfpack have wins over Duke, Louisville and North Carolina, which means they have what it takes to play well on the big stages and take down top teams. That's what I'm looking for in a sleeper candidate.
The Wolfpack need a good ACC tournament to secure a spot in the field of 64, but if they get there, watch out.
7. Michigan State
2 of 8
Stats: 19-10, fifth in Big Ten (10-6); unranked
Last Week's Sleeper Ranking: 4
Why They're Here
I was incredibly high on the Michigan State Spartans last week, but they lost to Minnesota in overtime—and then to No. 5 Wisconsin. That was definitely not the way coach Tom Izzo's squad wanted to follow up a four-game winning streak.
However, as reported by Mike Griffith of MLive.com, Izzo is trying to look at the bright side:
"The Spartans did, however, outscore the Badgers 36-32 in the second half. And after being outscored in the paint by a 24-6 margin in the first half, MSU won the battle for points in the paint 16-10 over the final 20 minutes at the Kohl Center.
"To bounce back and play decent, it wasn't like he (Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan) had the subs in," Izzo said. "There was something we can get out of it. (Byrn) Forbes shooting, (Denzel) Valentine and (Travis) Trice played pretty well."
"
With the experienced and incredibly successful Izzo at the helm—and an aggressive team that is 12th in the nation in defensive rebounds and third in assists—the Spartans are still a tough out for anyone.
6. Southern Methodist University
3 of 8
Stats: 23-6, second in American (14-3); ranked No. 22
Last Week's Sleeper Ranking: 6
Why They're Here
It was a very strange week for SMU. The team took care of Memphis to close out February, but then suffered a bad loss to UConn to kick off March.
The Mustangs will have a showdown against Tulsa on Sunday for the regular-season American Athletic Conference crown. With a rare week in between contests, they'll have time to sort out the woes, particularly from behind the arc, that plagued them against the defending champions last Sunday.
The strong fundamentals, team-first mentality and typically accurate shooting make me a believer in SMU in March. The team knows how to overcome adversity—there's been plenty of it this season—and that makes them a sleeper.
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5. Oregon
4 of 8
Stats: 22-8, third in Pac-12 (12-5); unranked
Last Week's Sleeper Ranking: 7
Why They're Here
Watch out for the Oregon Ducks, everyone.
The Ducks got wins over California and Stanford in the past week to make it eight wins in their last nine games. It looks like they're heating up just in time to make a run in the NCAA tournament.
Senior Joseph Young is the leader for this team, and he's playing well at exactly the right time, scoring over 20 points in his last two games and averaging exactly 20 points per game for the year.
As long as Young is on fire, nobody will want to face the Ducks' high-powered offense. Momentum is definitely on Oregon's side.
4. Arkansas
5 of 8
Stats: 23-6, second in SEC (12-4); ranked No. 18
Last Week's Sleeper Ranking: 2
Why They're Here
Last week, everyone was buzzing about the prospects of Arkansas giving Kentucky a run for its money, but that didn't happen in the slightest. In fact, the Razorbacks looked downright pedestrian in an 84-67 loss to the No. 1 team in the country.
Still, Arkansas has won 10 of its last 12, and its offense is ninth in the nation in points per game and sixth in assists. That's pretty great.
Not beating Kentucky is nothing to hang your head about, but the Razorbacks need to keep rolling this week and in the SEC tournament. If they remain confident and composed, this is at least a Sweet 16 squad.
3. West Virginia
6 of 8
Stats: 22-8, fourth in Big 12 (10-7); ranked No. 20
Last Week's Sleeper Ranking: 1
Why They're Here
The West Virginia Mountaineers have dropped a bit since last week due to back-to-back division losses to ranked rivals Baylor and Kansas, but they're still in pretty good shape to make waves in the NCAA tournament.
After all, West Virginia is currently dealing with injuries to Juwan Staten (knee) and Gary Browne (ankle), two keys to the Mountaineers' system. However, both players are currently day-to-day and not expected to miss time once the tournament gets underway.
Once they get back, West Virginia will go back to being the sleeper nobody wants to face in the Big Dance.
2. North Carolina
7 of 8
Stats: 21-9, fifth in ACC (11-6); ranked No. 19
Last Week's Sleeper Ranking: NR
Why They're Here
A couple of months ago, it looked like the North Carolina Tar Heels were going to be contenders heading into the tournament—not sleepers. But now they've fallen to No. 19 in the AP Top 25.
UNC is merely 4-5 in its last nine games. The losses have come to Virginia, Pittsburgh, North Carolina State, Louisville and Duke (the latter two in OT), while the wins have been against much lesser opponents: Boston College, Miami and Georgia Tech (twice).
Still, this inconsistent UNC team has what it takes to get an upset or two and make a run in the tournament. The Heels are fast, scrappy and surprisingly aggressive. They are second in the nation in offensive rebounding, 10th in defensive rebounding and lead the country in assists.
Coach Roy Williams and co. still have time to gain more confidence before the Big Dance, with a regular-season finale against Duke and the ACC tournament on the horizon.
But even if they don't nab a top-four seed in the NCAA tournament, they'll be a team to watch.
1. Iowa State
8 of 8
Stats: 21-8, second in Big 12 (11-6); ranked No. 17
Last Week's Sleeper Ranking: NR
Why They're Here
Iowa State has been on a roller-coaster ride over the last week.
The Cyclones began by seeing their stock (and potential seed) plummet with back-to-back ugly losses to Baylor and Kansas State. That's the only reason they even qualify as a sleeper candidate.
Then, in the first half of its game against Oklahoma, Iowa State looked more than lost—in fact, the Cyclones were down by 20 with about 15 minutes left in the game. However, they somehow found their mojo again and fought their way to a 77-70 victory.
According to Randy Peterson of The Des Moines Register, this was the best half Iowa State has ever played:
"Yes, Big Monday's Big Comeback was huge — right up there in the one for the ages category. It matched Iowa State's biggest second-half comeback in school history, equaling what the 1998 team did in overtime against Western Illinois. As far as regulation?
No question: This was the best.
"
After seeing Georges Niang score 20 of his 23 points in the second half of the win over Oklahoma to effectively take over the game, it's nearly impossible to imagine a Sweet 16 without the Cyclones.
In fact, I'd be tempted to pencil them into the Elite Eight.
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