What Do Red Flags of NFL Draft Process Really Mean?

What will keep this football player from living up to his incredible potential?

Drafting players into the NFL and the scouting process that precedes it are both inexact sciences. While not quite being guesswork, a lot of the work that goes into acquiring players is simply hedging one's bets as best as possible against the great unknown. 

In short, a red flag is any piece of information that raises concerns about a player hitting his own personal ceiling. 

It's an interesting metaphor to the physical red flags NFL fans are used to seeing on a weekly basis. Those red flags indicate a challenge is about to take place on the field, just as teams use the term red flag to take a closer look at something off the field. 

Those trouble spots come in different shapes and sizes. Yet the term tends to take on a one-size-fits-all quality that can cloud the public perception of a prospect. 

To define the term once and for all, let's take a look at how different types around the NFL treat the term red flag: what it means, how it affects a player's draft stock and what can be done to mitigate the risks around players with some of these issues. 

What, Exactly, Is a Red Flag?

Doug McSchooler/Associated Press/Associated Press

"It is a set of circumstances in a player’s current or past situation that causes a concern for a team that might draft a player."

That definition of red flag comes from Leigh Steinberg, who has been a top agent for more than 40 years. Remember Tom Cruise as Jerry Maguire? Yeah, that character and storyline was modeled after Steinberg, who has represented more than 60 first-round picks, including eight guys who were first overall. 

It's safe to say Steinberg knows a little about the pre-draft process. 

"We would profile prospective clients," Steinberg said, "to see if they have the type of character which would make them a good role model and help them be successful in the NFL as well as in their second career."

Character is a tricky thing in the agent-prospect relationship, as there's always a fine line between wanting good young men and realizing the game isn't played by the Vienna Boys Choir. As the saying goes, if you want to make an omelet, you have to break a few eggs. 

So, even agents who say they only take men of high character will look at guys they believe have put their poor choices behind them. 

Teams do the same thing. 

"None of us would want to be judged by our worst behavior in our college years," Steinberg said. "There’s a maturation process going on. We don’t throw players on the trash heap of history for one mistake they’ve learned from."

This echoed the thoughts of NFL Network analyst and former Baltimore Ravens head coach Brian Billick. Billick isn't just a Super Bowl champion as a head coach, but he's got four former assistants head coaching in the NFL in 2015. 

Billick made it clear there's never any hard or fast rule for dealing with player concerns, saying: "At the end of the day, you have to figure out: Is this just being young and stupid? Or, is it a character trait we don’t want to deal with?"

Maybe even more to the point, Billick also said: "How much time do I have to give to this guy?"

Charley Casserly, another NFL Network analyst and former NFL executive, was in the war room making picks and hashing out these kinds of decisions for the better part of two decades with both Washington and the Houston Texans.

Ironically, while Steinberg was the inspiration for Jerry Maguire, Casserly's work with the 3-0 Washington team during the strike inspired the 2000 movie, The Replacements. Although, Casserly's typical selection process didn't always produce the kind of rag-tag group of players highlighted in that Hollywood depiction. 

"We used a symbol system," Casserly said. "If a guy had a problem with medical, we put a P on it (for physical). If we had a concern about mental ability to learn, 'Coachability' was C. Off-the-field issues we put X on it...Drug issues or drinking, D."

Casserly went on to explain the symbols were incredibly vital to setting up the boards, but were completely left off the final reports they used on draft day. Basically, the red flags helped put the board together, but eventually they had to be part of a player's overall picture, and if a guy with a red flag was the top player on the board at any given pick of the draft, you better be OK with any concerns. 

Sometimes, that means taking a player off the board completely. In Casserly's world, that meant:

"If there was an issue where a player had done something inappropriate with a female, eliminated. Multiple drug tests, failed combine drug test, selling drugs—eliminated. If he failed one drug test, it wasn’t a black or white. We find out the circumstances. It could [take the player off the board], but wasn’t automatic."

"The process isn't about 'looking for purity,'" Steinberg said, "but where one’s attitude is today." 

Now, understandably, a lot of this discussion focuses on the seediest definition of red flags, but head back up to Casserly's list of symbols above. Physical issues, mental aptitude and "coachability" aren't exactly mistakes players have made, but the general maxim from Steinberg still holds true if you continue the metaphor. 

Are teams looking for players free from any past medical issues? Well, that's the ideal, but you're not looking for purity as much as a player that can be trusted physically moving forward. 

Are we looking for brainiacs? Does every player need to be a 4.0 student and Rhodes Scholar? Of course not. While those might be positive traits, a team can accept a guy who has had learning issues if they're convinced he'll be able to pick up their playbook. 

"Is there something football-wise that is an eliminator for your coach?" Casserly asked hypothetically. "There’s certain positions where your coach says we have to have a certain level of intelligence."

Casserly then brought up Hall of Fame head coach Joe Gibbs, who demanded a high level of intelligence for his scheme at both the quarterback and free safety positions. 

Eventually, it comes down to this principle from Casserly: "We have humans judging humans. The best indicator of future performance is past performance, but that’s assuming a lot of things. [A team is] making only an educated guess."

How Well Can We Predict Future Problems?

Jason DeCrow/Associated Press

Just how much of this matters for 2015?

Steinberg thinks it will mean quite a bit, saying: "I don’t think there will be a more heavily scrutinized draft class in terms of behavior in NFL History."

Because of the year the NFL just had thanks to former Ravens running back Ray Rice, Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson, Carolina Panthers defensive end Greg Hardy and so many others, the NFL will not allow teams to ignore the character side of the equation in the future. Bleacher Report's own Mike Freeman said much the same here: 

"

The teams I spoke to said there were some half-dozen players who in past years would've been drafted despite serious domestic violence accusations. This year, they likely won't be. At least, that's what they say. We'll see.

There was a time when an act of domestic violence would barely touch a player's draft status. It should have but didn't. Then came Ray Rice's disgraceful punch and everything changed. Supposedly it has, anyway.

In this post-Rice world, teams are talking the talk.

"

Wouldn't it be nice to have a crystal ball to predict the future of some of these question marks?

A company in Salt Lake City called Intentional Creation may not have a crystal ball, but they do have a character assessment used to measure the thought processes behind an athlete's decision making. 

Steinberg swears by them, and his endorsement sent me running to Paul Blanchard, executive director and partner of the group.

Working mostly with companies hiring and firing sales people or management types, they've expanded to athletes and believe their idea is 100 percent scalable to the point where every prospect in a draft class could take this assessment to help see, as Blanchard said, "if they’re worth investing in in the first place."

According to Blanchard, they've done work with individual athletes through agents and with Southern Methodist University. They've also "gone back and forth" with the Dallas Cowboys, but he admits: "Not every team is ready and not every coach is ready to facilitate."

I agree wholeheartedly with Blanchard when he says too much emphasis is placed on many of the Xs, Os, schemes and scouting reports around the game of football. We're not using a massive computer simulation of an NFL season, nor are we playing the game on paper. Humans step out to the field on any given Sunday, and as Blanchard says, those "human beings still make or break your season."

The Intentional Creation assessment is an extension of many well-known tools, but Blanchard points out those assessments utilize inductive reasoning, while their assessment is deductive.

“We wanted to go to the source that influences personality and behavior," Blanchard said, "and we've spent 14 years perfecting that process. Thought is the No. 1 influence of a person’s behavior. We believe that performance is a choice. We can scientifically measure what 'get your head in the game' means and how to get there."

I took the assessment, and in just under 15 minutes ranking a couple of lists from what I considered positive and negative, I didn't really believe I had showed much about who I was. Yet when I saw the immediate results, I was surprised at how in-depth they went. Moreover, when I spoke with Blanchard, he told me things about my thoughts I'm not sure he could've known after a spate of psychological counseling sessions. 

Blanchard claimed again and again that it wasn't that aforementioned crystal ball and it's not a subjective opinion. These are objective, scientific measurements that delve into the heart of how we think. 

"We are not our thoughts. We would all be felons if we were—when that person cuts us off on the freeway. But, our thoughts try to convince us we are. They’ll show up eventually if not properly addressed. We can measure those things before it comes to the rubber hitting the road."

Teams may not be using Intentional Creation yet—emphasis on yet—but they do spend an incredible amount of resources on this sort of thing. 

It starts with what I call the draft machine as its gears start turning. Teams have area scouts who follow these players from the moments they arrive on college campuses. They'll note any injuries, concerns, incidents or the like that might eventually become red flags in the draft process. 

From there, things get escalated to the processes Casserly described above. Then, the coaches and personnel guys get involved.

"Medical red flags are the toughest," Billick said. "You have to trust your medical staff. Have there been arrests? Suspensions? Is there anything pending? The next level is that this young man just appears to be around a lot of stuff. Some of the guys that are the worst are pretty good con men, but I’m too old to con."

Billick also pointed out personal connections can be a big part of it: "Publicly, plenty of coaches will say there’s no issue, but in a private setting, they’ll say don’t go near a guy."

Much of this happens at the NFL Scouting Combine, which is the first time many coaches and general managers have a chance to sit down with these players. As the process whittles down, this will be the only time coaches and general managers deal with them one-on-one.

In Indianapolis, it literally comes down to a 15-minute interview that can make or break a player's chances with a team. Billick said the goal in those meetings is to "Get them off their mantra, because they’ve been schooled up…can tell responses are planned ahead of time."

Blanchard agreed: "Facade is so incredibly present in the process. There are just as many [who are] training athletes to interview well as there are those trying to read the tea leaves."

"Really," Casserly says, "you just have to guess the maturation process going forward. There’s a reason you don’t draft these guys. Most of the time they don’t improve; that’s my experience."

OK, So You've Got a Red Flag...Now What?

GAIL BURTON/Associated Press/Associated Press

As mentioned earlier, it would be ideal if prospects were red-flag free. 

That just won't ever happen. 

What can a team do to prevent a red flag from becoming a full-blown issue that tears apart not only their locker room, but a talented player's potential as well? 

"He’s yours now," Casserly said. "You go as far as you can to help him."

Billick continued down that line of thought, calling it: "Part of your obligation as an organization or as a coach...If it's just mistakes they’ve made, what is at the heart of it? The NFL and individual clubs have a huge amount of resources—player programs, psychological people or doctors on staff. What’s this guy's issue: Maturity? Not processing? Small-town guy now in a big city environment? Family issues?"

Blanchard would say the issue is how a player thinks. Or one step further, how the player compensates for those unhealthy thought processes. That's a process called metacognition, and Blanchard called it one of the greatest gifts we have as humans. 

In essence, the issue is not our place in life or the experiences we've gone through, but how those have shaped our internal processes and how much energy it takes us to compensate for them.  

"You can have a dozen athletes come from a really rough neighborhood," Blanchard says, "but that’s not a good indicator of whether or not they’ll perform to the best of their abilities—not that they don’t want to be a team player or perform at their peak, but their thought processes make it difficult to unleash their potential...Awareness alone gives a massive advantage."

Steinberg points out that being an elite athlete and playing professional sports has a lot more ramifications than simply being great on the field, asking the hypothetical player with red flags: "Do you understand that being a professional football player doesn’t just involve playing on the field? There are obligations with the media, with fans, etc. If you can't handle that, go play on a sandlot."

He calls that, "focusing on what the game demands and what the game can give them."

Bringing players to that realization isn't easy—especially if there are plenty of issues in the past. As much as they disagree on many issues, though, the NFL and the player's union are united in their desire for players to put red flags behind them and play long, vibrant careers. 

One instance of that is the NFL Rookie Symposium, a mandatory event described here by Bleacher Report's Matt Bowen last year:

"

The four-day mandatory event—which is taking place this week in Ohio—covers the entire NFL landscape with a focus on history, player expectations and social responsibility along with breakout sessions on financial planning, locker room conduct and off-the-field situations.

A crash course on how to act and play like a professional.

With handpicked former and current players delivering testimonies on success (or failure), there is a wealth of knowledge for these rookies to take in if they use the symposium as a learning tool.

“This is no longer an orientation of what not to do. Absolutely not,” NFL senior vice president Troy Vincent told me in a previous interview. “We are going to talk about this NFL experience.”

"

After the symposium, players are not left to their own devices, and both Casserly and Billick talked about the incredible resources the NFL has to get players the help they desire. But, that's an important piece of nuance. If a player continues to be self-destructive, the NFL largely marches on without them. 

"You screen for attitude and desire to be great," Steinberg said. "Do they have what it takes to elevate their play at the next level?"

Steinberg also pointed out agents play a role in this. "It takes a village," he said, chuckling. 

Blanchard compared the process to a race car with a massively overpowered engine. Sure, the car can go as fast as it wants, but these issues stand in the way like a driver who doesn't know how to shift gears. Stepping harder on the gas pedal only does so much. Eventually, he pointed out, the engine blows. 

In many ways, that's when the fans and media get to witness the negativity around these red flags. They can lie in wait—behind the scenes and just under the surface—for years. Perhaps they exist only as faint rumors or in unreportable whispers around the locker room or scuttlebutt for message boards. 

Untreated, they are bound to rise to the surface and have the power to ruin careers and destroy Super Bowl dreams. 

This is the time of the year where red flags get the most attention, and as the NFL clubs pack up their bags and returns from the combine to their respective cities, they'll sit down and discuss the potential challenges for each and every player on their boards. 

The teams will have to convince themselves to look past the red flags that may not matter. 

They will have to decide for themselves what they can overlook on the basis of the incredible talent offsetting them. 

Finally, with those players inevitably in the fold come April, they will have to double down and make sure their own processes are in place to allow them to be successful in spite of any non-football issues. 

In a game played by humans, this is the most human element.

Michael Schottey is an NFL National Lead Writer for Bleacher Report, a writer for Football Insiders and an award-winning member of the Pro Football Writers of America. Find more of his stuff on his archive page and follow him on Twitter. Unless otherwise noted, all quotes were obtained by the author.