NFL MVP 2015: Predicting Odds After AFC, NFC Championship Games

Russell Wilson throws a game-winning touchdown in the NFC Championship Game to reverse the worst performance of his career. Aaron Rodgers does all he can in the loss to overcome horrific coaching. J.J. Watt watches from his couch after an epic season.

So yes, the NFL MVP race is different.

These players, almost impossible to compare, rest firmly in contention for the league's most prestigious award, one with no true specific qualifications or checklists. An individual award in a team-based game tends to be this difficult on voters.

Predicting odds for the award is as difficult as anything is. How does one compare a defensive lineman to a quarterback, anyway?

Perhaps the award ends up going the predictable route regardless. Either way, the odds figure to shape up in the manner below.

Projected MVP Odds

Player	Odds
Aaron Rodgers	1-35
J.J. Watt	9-1
Tom Brady	10-1
Russell Wilson	16-1
Marshawn Lynch	18-1
DeMarco Murray	25-1
Tony Romo	40-1
Peyton Manning	100-1
Le'Veon Bell	300-1

The Case for J.J. Watt

Bob Levey/Getty Images

How far can sacks get a defender when it comes to the MVP award? 

Watt posted 20.5 in 2014, matching his career high from 2012. That's 57 over four years for a taste of perspective. That 2014 number alone, along with his game-changing ways, was enough to land him one individual accolade already, per Pro Football on ESPN:

A single number does not do Watt's season justice, though. A No. 1 ranking at 3-4 defensive end at Pro Football Focus (subscription required) tells the whole story.

There, Watt graded out at 107.5. The next highest player, Sheldon Richardson of the New York Jets, came in at 39.9. Watt generated 44 hits, 54 hurries, 61 stops and batted down 10 passes on 1,069 snaps. No other player of the 47 on the list reached the 1,000-snap mark.

Further adding to Watt's MVP resume is his offensive contributions, as the staff in Houston decided to get him involved on that side of the football, too.

The result? Three targets, three catches, three touchdowns.

As for his stance on the reward, well, Watt is not going to sell himself to voters. Per Peter King of The Monday Morning Quarterback:

"

That’s for people like you to decide, not me. I can’t change any voters’ minds, and I don’t think I should try. I don’t care, actually. It doesn’t matter to me. It’s an award. If people vote for me, great. But to politic for it, no. Please vote for me? No. People who play don’t get to decide who wins, nor should they. I want to be deserving, but not because I politicked for it. My play on the field is all that should matter. Nothing else.

"

Here is the problem with picking anyone but Watt—how can a defensive player ever win the award again if he does not? 

Rodgers was great this season, but really good enough to overcome one of the greatest seasons ever by a defender?

Then again, Watt's current path as a once-in-a-generation talent means he will perhaps be in the conversation for a long time.

Maybe his best is still to come.

The Case for Aaron Rodgers

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

One can only feel bad for Rodgers. 

He throws for 4,381 yards and 38 touchdowns to five interceptions while completing 65.6 percent of his passes.

Yet, all most will remember is his team's failure in the NFC title game.

What they need to remember is Rodgers' bout with injury. His ridiculous 316 yards and three touchdowns with the Dallas Cowboys in town in the divisional round while his defense thought it an opportune time to not show up.

ESPN's Randy Scott put it best:

The same applies to his performance in Seattle, two interceptions notwithstanding. His gritty, hobbled scrambles, his dimes down the field in the elements at the most hostile venue in the league, and all the while coach Mike McCarthy seemed intent on blowing a 16-0 lead, which he did.

Rodgers ranks as the top quarterback in the league at PFF with an overall score of 40.4. One other quarterback broke the 30-point mark (Drew Brees). Per their number crunching, Rodgers' targets dropped nearly as many passes (32) as he threw touchdowns.

Only six quarterbacks experienced more dropped passes on the season, none more than 38. 

As far as quarterbacks go, few did more in adverse conditions than Rodgers.

Predicted Winner: Aaron Rodgers

Tom Pennington/Getty Images

When in doubt, defer to quarterbacks.

While not entirely fair to Watt, so is the nature of the beast.

Few quarterbacks did more with less in 2014. Forget the drop numbers. Rodgers navigated a tough schedule littered with stout defenses, including Seattle, Detroit and Minnesota twice, as well as the New York Jets, Miami, New England and Buffalo.

While Wilson can lean on Marshawn Lynch, Ben Roethlisberger on Le'Veon Bell and Peyton Manning on a ludicrous amount of options, Rodgers did not have a running mate who is worthy of individual accolades of his own.

Watt is special. He is probably just getting started, too. Rodgers, though, continues to transcend greatness at the toughest position of all under some of the highest expectations the league can drum up.

It certainly doesn't hurt that he makes everyone around him better while trumping a brutal division on the way to the playoffs, either.

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus.