Daily Fantasy Football: Best FanDuel, DraftKings 2015 Championship Lineup Advice

There's more than one way to assemble a profitable daily fantasy football lineup.

Even with only four teams playing during the conference championships, there are several possible combinations to consider this weekend. Of course, each player's strategy depends on the contest.

Entering a 50/50 tournament, bettors should play it safe with trustworthy options. Marshawn Lynch and Rob Gronkowski are expensive but dependable. Playing in a larger GPP (guaranteed prize pool) tournament, it's necessary to take some risks. Essentially, the key is finding this week's Davante Adams or Danny Amendola.

Revisiting recommendations from earlier this week, let's make some alterations that minimize risk for both DraftKings and FanDuel users. 

FanDuel

Position	Player	Opponent	Price
QB	Andrew Luck, IND	@ NE	$9,200
RB	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	vs. GB	$8,600
RB	LeGarrette Blount, NE	vs. IND	$5,400
WR	Julian Edelman, NE	vs. IND	$7,500
WR	Doug Baldwin, SEA	vs. GB	$6,200
WR	Hakeem Nicks, IND	@ NE	$5,500
TE	Rob Gronkowski, NE	vs. IND	$8,200
K	Mason Crosby, GB	@ SEA	$4,500
D/ST	New England Patriots	vs. IND	$4,900

All four starting quarterbacks are separated by just $300, so take the top option in Andrew Luck. He has already thrown 87 times in two postseason contests, and the Indianapolis Colts are not likely to go run-heavy after Daniel Herron averaged 2.7 yards per carry last weekend.

The Green Bay Packers rank No. 23 against the run, conceding 110 rushing yards and two touchdowns to Lynch during their Week 1 collision. In six playoff games with the Seattle Seahawks, the power back has scored in all but last week's disappointing outing against the Carolina Panthers.

Lynch averaged 17.5 handoffs per game during the season, so expect him to receive more than 14 rushes against Green Bay, which rates No. 11 in Football Outsiders' passing defense DVOA but No. 24 versus the run.

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

LeGarrette Blount won't replicate Jonas Gray's 37-carry, four-touchdown explosion against the Colts, but he'll certainly top last Saturday's one-yard vanishing act. During five regular-season games with the New England Patriots, he amassed 281 rushing yards and three scores on 60 carries, giving the new arrival 4.7 yards per rush.

Although Indianapolis has improved as of late, it placed No. 19 in DVOA against the run during the season. With New England likely to switch gears from nonstop passing to power running, Blount will reap the rewards.

Wide receiver is a tough code to crack this week. Green Bay's star wideouts face the Legion of Boom. If Darrelle Revis' Instagram post is any indicator, the cop corner will shadow T.Y. Hilton on Sunday.

After originally slotting in Brandon LaFell, reading this nugget from Mike Clay on ESPN.com (subscription required) caused some second thought.

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Like Revis, Vontae Davis is an extremely effective cover corner. Unlike Revis, Davis is not utilized as a shadow corner. Davis did not shadow Mohamed Sanu two weeks ago or Demaryius Thomas this past week. Following the two playoff games, he has now lined up at right corner on 96 percent of his snaps this season. That means trouble for Brandon LaFell this Sunday. LaFell has run 51 percent of his routes wide to Tom Brady's left.

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Lining up against Davis half the time is bad for LaFell, who needed a touchdown to reach value last week. The Indianapolis Star's Zak Keefer helps explain why, via Pro Football Focus data.

Let's instead turn to teammate Julian Edelman, who has received double-digit targets in each of his last five games. With so few safe options, let's roll the dice with Hakeem Nicks again after finding the end zone against the Denver Broncos. He didn't fit this specific lineup, but Donte Moncrief possesses the upside to swing some competitions at $5,300.

Rather than pay for Jermaine Kearse's career week, go to top target Doug Baldwin. Green Bay sported a No. 14 defensive DVOA against opposing No. 1 wide receivers compared to a No. 7 against second receivers.

If you're willing to go cheap at kicker and defense, there's enough left in the budget for Gronkowski. The Colts ranked No. 27 in DVOA against tight ends, so the position's undisputed top star is worth every dollar.

DraftKings

Position	Player	OPP	Price
QB	Russell Wilson, SEA	vs. GB	$8,000
RB	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	vs. GB	$7,600
RB	Daniel Herron, IND	@ NE	$5,900
WR	Randall Cobb, GB	@ SEA	$7,700
WR	Doug Baldwin, SEA	vs. GB	$5,000
WR	Jermaine Kearse, SEA	vs. GB	$3,800
TE	Coby Fleener, IND	@ NE	$4,300
FLEX	LeGarrette Blount, NE	vs. IND	$4,500
D/ST	New England Patriots	vs. IND	$3,200

Luck isn't a bad play for DraftKings, but the $200 saved with Russell Wilson went a long way in completing the lineup. He won't register 12.2 yards per passing attempt with three touchdowns again, but the postseason savant remains a viable threat with his legs.

Guess who leads everyone, by a wide margin, in playoff receptions? Not Dez Bryant. Not Hilton. Nope, it's Herron. His 18 catches are seven more than the next guys up.

That's terrific news under DraftKings' point-per-reception scoring. With Trent Richardson off the field for the first game and inactive for the next, Herron has received significantly more playing time to pad his stats.

Clay monitored his gigantic usage rate against Denver.

If Green Bay sacrifices Adams to Richard Sherman like it did with Jarrett Boykin in Week 1, Jordy Nelson and Randall Cobb could once again have strong games against a stout Seattle secondary. Feel free to take Nelson's higher ceiling and leave $100 on the table, but he's at higher risk than Cobb of aligning against Sherman.

About that previous "Don't pay for Kearse's career year" sentiment. Considering Moncrief and Nicks are the only usable wideouts cheaper on DraftKings, Kearse is worth using as a No. 3 receiver. With Paul Richardson out, he'll start alongside Baldwin for a Seattle offense well-versed at making big plays.

Not using Gronkowski hurts, but all tight ends should be frequently featured in the AFC Championship Game. New England ranks No. 30 in DVOA against tight ends, with Revis' presence compelling quarterbacks to find their safety net.

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

This pick would be much easier if Indianapolis didn't have two tight ends. Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen each strip the other of value, with Allen vulturing touchdowns and Fleener taking away targets. In a PPR scoring system, take Fleener, who decimated New England for 144 yards during an in-season clash with his fellow tight end sidelined.

Choosing Allen for $500 less, however, would free up cap space to take Seattle's defense over New England's or Eddie Lacy instead of Herron. 

All advanced statistics courtesy of Football Outsiders.