Fantasy Football: Daily League Guide to Divisional Saturday

Defense wins championships. It does not win money in daily fantasy football. You want to avoid it like influenza.

It makes for another Saturday of difficult fantasy decisions in this NFL postseason. The matchups that kick off the divisional playoff round tend to be on the tighter, defensive side. The Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots and Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks give us two potential defensive struggles and games that don't appear to be fantasy friendly.

Bleacher Report breaks down Saturday's slate in depth here, analyzing the injuries, statistically significant fantasy matchups and positional ranking of the top buys for the first two games of the weekend. The numbers might not look favorable for shootouts, but they also keep the prices somewhat affordable.

Note: Practice participation information comes from the official NFL injury report (credentials required), all dollar values are from the games at DraftKings.com and all references to fantasy points against specific positions are derived from FFToday.com.

Reading into the Las Vegas Numbers...

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If you are comparing the weekend matchups again, like last week, the Saturday games feature the defensive games, while the Sunday games boast the better offenses and higher totals in Las Vegas. It makes it more likely you will get big fantasy numbers out of Sunday's players. When in doubt, follow the money in Las Vegas.

It doesn't mean Saturday's players cannot be bargains and surprises, though. We try to find those for you in the ensuing slides.

Both home teams are significant favorites with relatively modest over-under totals, especially the Seahawks. It should be noted: the No. 1 NFC seed is just 1-7 against the spread the past eight seasons in divisional playoff games (and four times, the top seed lost outright).

The over is 12-4 in divisional playoff games the past four seasons, but last year the under was 3-1, for what those are worth.

All betting information, lines and trends are courtesy of OddsShark.com.

Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots

Favorite: New England (-7)

Total: 47.5

• Road team is 5-0-1 ATS in past six meetings of Pats and Ravens
• Ravens are 6-0 ATS in past six playoff games (5-1 SU)
• Patriots are 3-10 ATS in past 13 playoff games (6-7 SU)
• Joe Flacco ($6,900) is 10-4 ATS in playoffs
• Patriots are 7-2 SU in divisional round since 2001, just 4-4-1 ATS
• Ravens are 3-0 ATS in past three playoff meetings with Patriots (2-1 SU)
• Patriots are 16-1 SU in past 17 home games (12-5 ATS)
• Under is 6-1 in Baltimore’s past seven road games versus AFC East
• Over is 10-3 in New England’s last 13 home games

Carolina Panthers at Seattle Seahawks

Favorite: Seattle (-11)

Total: 39.5

• Carolina has lost six of its past seven SU versus Seattle
• Carolina is 2-0 as road underdogs in divisional round since 2000
• Panthers are 1-13 SU in last 14 games as double-digit underdogs (8-6 ATS)
• Panthers are 1-6 SU in past seven meetings with Seahawks (3-4 ATS)
• Panthers are 5-0 SU in past five games (3-2 ATS)
• Seahawks are 28-2 SU in past 30 games as double-digit favorites (16-13-1 ATS)
• Seahawks are 4-1 SU and ATS in past five playoff games
• Seahawks are 6-0 SU and ATS in past six games
• Under is 4-1 in past five meetings
• Over is 6-1 in Carolina's past seven road games
• Over is 5-2 in Seattle’s past seven home games versus NFC South

Baltimore Ravens Injury Report

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LT Eugene Monroe (Ankle)

It should be noted that Monroe has practiced this week and is expected to return to action, according to ESPN.com's Jamison Hensley. That would move rookie James Hurst to right tackle and Marshal Yanda to guard, making the entire offensive line better.

That is great news for Justin Forsett ($5,400), who is the bargain among starting running backs this week. Joe Flacco ($6,900), seventh-highest among quarterbacks, will also have his blindside protector back.

DT Timmy Jernigan (Ankle, Foot)

Jernigan practiced in full Thursday and should team with Haloti Ngata to make a formidable duo in run defense against LeGarrette Blount ($4,600), who is cheap but not exciting in this matchup.

New England Patriots Injury Report

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WR Julian Edelman (Concussion)

Edelman ($6,400) might not look like much, or seem like much, but the New England Patriots averaged just 12.5 points in his absence due to concussion symptoms, according to the Boston Herald's Jeff Howe. Edelman practiced on a limited basis and should be expected to play Saturday, and play well. The Ravens were the fifth-worst team in fantasy against wide receivers in the regular season.

WR Brandon LaFell (Shoulder, Toe)

LaFell told ESPN.com's Mike Reiss to not worry about his limited practices: "I'm doing great, man. Rested my body up a little bit, and now it's game week I'm ready to get out there and play and make plays."

LaFell ($6,000) is cheaper than Edelman, but he is also more likely to be slowed by whatever might ail him in the freezing temps Saturday. Still, the price is as favorable as the matchup.

RB Jonas Gray (Ankle)

Gray expects to play and will be playing against his former team, the Baltimore Ravens, as Mark Daniels of the Providence Journal wrote. Gray ($4,200) has fallen behind LeGarrette Blount ($4,600) in the pecking order, though, and the Ravens were the No. 1 team in fantasy against running backs this season, shutting down the Pittsburgh Steelers run game last week.

Carolina Panthers Injury Report

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

DT Star Lotulelei (Foot)

A foot fracture has taken away one of the Panthers' best run defenders in Star Lotulelei, as Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times reported. Colin Cole, a capable backup who has started 10 games this season, is expected to fill in.

The news is great for Marshawn Lynch ($8,000). The Panthers had been great against fantasy running backs the last three (No. 1) and last five weeks (No. 2) of the season. That was partially due to the play of Lotulelei. Lynch is a far more intriguing play now.

LB A.J. Klein (Ankle), CB Melvin White (Ankle), WR Corey Brown (Shoulder), S Thomas DeCoud (Hamstring)

We don't see any true fantasy value being derived from these injuries.

Seattle Seahawks Injury Report

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The Seahawks are coming off their No. 1-seed-earned bye and don't have an injury significant enough to impact fantasy value this week.

Out: S Jeron Johnson (elbow)

Did not practice Thursday: TE Tony Moeaki (calf)

Full practice Thursday: DE Demarcus Dobbs (ankle), TE Cooper Helfet (ribs), WR Jermaine Kearse (hamstring), RB Marshawn Lynch (back), CB Byron Maxwell (illness), CB Tharold Simon (shoulder), C Max Unger (ankle, knee)

Lynch ($8,000) has dealt with back issues this season, but they didn't stop him from rushing for 1,306 yards—second-most in his career—and a career-high 13 touchdowns. Expect a busy day for Lynch, making him a near must-start fantasy option on the weekend.

4 Fantasy Matchup Breakdowns for Saturday

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Here are some of Saturday's most statistically significant matchups to consider when mapping out your daily fantasy lineups.

Pats vs. Ravens Run Defense

The Detroit Lions, Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks were all ranked ahead of the Baltimore Ravens run defense (No. 4), but no one was better against fantasy running backs. The Pats might want to run the ball in what should be a defensive game, but the play-action pass will be more effective for Tom Brady ($7,800). Expect the Pats' points to come via the pass more than the run, which makes Shane Vereen ($4,800) slightly more intriguing than LeGarrette Blount ($4,600) or Jonas Gray ($4,200).

Ravens vs. Pats Pass Defense

The Pats are no Legion of Boom, but Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner can take Ravens wideouts Torrey Smith ($5,600) and Steve Smith ($5,800) out of the action. The Pats were fourth-best in fantasy against wide receivers this season. The Pats did give up the third-most receiving yards to fantasy tight ends, though, which should perk your attention on Owen Daniels ($3,600).

Panthers vs. Seattle Pass Defense 

Not only are Cam Newton's ($6,700) weapons other than Kelvin Benjamin ($5,000) suspect, but the Seahawks have the Legion of Boom, after all. Seattle was No. 1 against fantasy quarterbacks and fantasy wide receivers. Yuck! The only potential saving grace, garbage time in a blowout, is mitigated by the fact Las Vegas believes the Seahawks are a double-digit favorite and the total is still under 40.

Panthers vs. Seattle Run Defense

Jonathan Stewart ($4,800) has been revitalized, but the Seahawks defense on the road presents a whole different level of challenge for him. The Seahawks were No. 3 against the run this season and No. 3 to just the Ravens and Lions against fantasy running backs, per the above links. Stewart has a small price for a starting running back, but still look away.

Ranking Saturday's Plays by Position

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Taking the analysis from this slideshow, here is how we rank the plays at each position relative to their DraftKings.com prices in Saturday's matchups.

Quarterbacks

1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots ($7,800)
2. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens ($6,900)
3. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks ($7,800)
4. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($6,700)

Running Backs

1. Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks ($8,000)
   
2. Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens ($5,400)
3. Shane Vereen, New England Patriots ($4,800)
4. Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers ($4,800)
5. LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots ($4,600)
6. Jonas Gray, New England Patriots ($4,200)
7. DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers ($3,200)

Wide Receivers

1. Julian Edelman, New England Patriots ($6,400)
2. Doug Baldwin, Seattle Seahawks ($4,500)
3. Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers ($5,000)
4. Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens ($5,600)
5. Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Seahawks ($3,200)
6. Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots ($6,000)
7. Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens ($5,800)

Tight Ends

1. Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots ($7,100)
2. Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens ($3,600)
3. Luke Willson, Seattle Seahawks ($3,400)
4. Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($5,100)

Defense/Special Teams

1. Seattle Seahawks ($3,700)
2. New England Patriots ($3,200)
3. Carolina Panthers ($2,700)
4. Baltimore Ravens ($2,900)

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Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.