NFL Picks: Week 16 Against the Spread

Things are starting to get fun here in football land. 

As opposed to the NBA, where over 80 percent of the league is eliminated from championship contention upon the season's first tipoff, the NFL is a Pollyanna free-for-all this time of year. Extreme mediocrity aside (we're looking at you, NFC South), here's what the parity party by the numbers looks like with just two weeks remaining:

• In the NFC, eight teams are battling it out for five remaining playoff spots (the "Team of Destiny" Cardinals are already in).
• In the AFC, eight teams are still eligible for three remaining spots (the Patriots, Colts and Broncos have all clinched their respective divisions, though the bye week is still up for grabs). 

However, this week presents us with plenty of presents. In fact, only two games do not feature playoff implications (and one of them—the "Toilet Bowl" matchup between the Jags and Titans—has already, mercifully, concluded).

As a result of winning six of my past eight picks, including three of four last week, my own "championship" aspirations also remain—albeit by a thread.

However, in the spirit of fairness, I must add a disclaimer that this column's resident pro bettor and founder of Big Time Sharps, Bill Davis, correctly chose the Texans +7.5 over the Colts. The problem was that, by the time this ran, the line was down to seven, thus resulting in a push. 

This week, the lines are squared away and I'm in it to win it, with no technicalities. Without further ado, let's rock, with lines courtesy of ESPN.com: 

Last Week

Davis: 1 correct pick, 1 push

Glauser: 3 correct picks 

Total

Davis: 15 correct picks

Glauser: 12 correct picks

Davis Pick No. 1: Kansas City Chiefs +3 over Pittsburgh Steelers

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

"The Chiefs’ strong run defense will keep the Steelers out of the end zone. Additionally, Pittsburgh has one of the worst red zone offenses in the league." 

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Chiefs keeping it closer than three points."

Glauser Pick No. 1: Indianapolis Colts (+3.5) over Dallas Cowboys

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

The Cowboys don't have Luck on their side.

Maybe it's just the Eagles fan in me, but I just don't see the Dallas secondary keeping the NFL's leading passer under wraps. Plus, a loss followed by a likely Philly win on Saturday against the Redskins puts the Birds back in the NFC East driver seat. And Tony Romo and gang traditionally don't do well under pressure. 

Pick against the spread: Ironically enough, if this was on the road, where the Boys are a perfect 7-0, they may stand a better chance. Alas, it is not, and expect the Colts to cover the spread and likely win outright. 

Davis Pick No. 2: Dallas Cowboys (-3.5) over Indianapolis Colts

Ronald Martinez/Getty Images

"Both teams have a strong passing attack but only one can run it effectively. That’s the Cowboys." 

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Dallas Cowboys winning by more than 3.5 points."

Glauser Pick No. 2: Arizona Cardinals (+9) over Seattle Seahawks

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Yes, the Seahawks are finally looking like the defending champs that they are. And yes, the Cardinals have 43-year-old Kurt Warner on speed dial ready to call upon their next QB casualty. But Bruce Arians might be doing the best coaching job in the NFL and should have Arizona ready to compete. 

Pick against the spread: With the NFC West on the line, and with a perfect 7-0 record at home, expect the Cards to at least keep it close. 

Davis Pick No. 3: New England Patriots/New York Jets Total: Under 46.5 Points

Jim Rogash/Getty Images

"Mathematically, both of these defenses have been improving on a weekly basis. New England should dominate this game but without many points scored."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Patriots and Jets scoring less than 47.5 points combined."

Glauser Pick No. 3: Seattle Seahawks/Arizona Cardinals Total: Under 36.5 Points

Steve Dykes/Getty Images

Okay, so I'm double dipping (I took a bite of this game...and then I dipped again). For good reason. 

These two teams are the second and third stingiest in the league at giving up points. The grand total of both of their games last week was 42—typically a low total for one contest, much less two. Neither defense is showing any signs of letting up, either. 

Pick against the spread: With a division title and first-round bye on the line in a nationally televised Sunday night matchup, expect Seattle and Arizona to play it close to the vest in a grind-it-out kinda game.  

Davis Pick No. 4: Buffalo Bills -7 over Oakland Raiders

Rick Stewart/Getty Images

"Buffalo’s defense handled Aaron Rodgers. Statistically, the Bills have been the best defense in the league next to Seattle. Oakland doesn’t have enough playmakers to keep this one close."

Pick against the spread: "The Davis Equation has the Bills winning by more than seven points."

Glauser Pick No. 4: Denver Broncos (-3.5) over Cincinnati Bengals

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

Few people enjoy the holiday season more than Denver fans, whose Broncos are 11-1 in their past 12 December contests.

Meanwhile, the Bengals are leading their division by the slimmest of margins but doing it with some smoke and mirrors, as they are just 2-3 against teams with winning records this season. The victories (both at the hands of the Ravens) were within one score while all three defeats were by over 20 points. 

Pick against the spread: The Broncos come into Cincinnati, tame the Cats, win handily and celebrate with some Skyline chili before returning home.

All quotes obtained by Bill Davis firsthand

Follow Jeff Glauser on Twitter: @Jeff_Glauser