NFL Playoffs 2014-15: Bracket Predictions, Odds for AFC and NFC Before Week 16
Heading into the NFL season's penultimate week, one would expect more clarity in each conference's playoff bracket.
Nope. Not this year, when only four of 12 postseason berths are claimed with two weeks remaining. With divisions and seeding still up for grabs, even those teams can't take their foot off the throttle. Barring a wild week, few, if any, teams are resting Week 17.
A few division leaders are dangling off the cliff, desperately trying not to plummet. They have survived this far, but they'll have to earn top honors by besting an adversary this December.
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Once Thursday night's game mercifully ends, nearly every game impacts the postseason picture. Let's examine how Week 16 will affect the projected playoff contenders.
| Thursday, Dec. 18 | Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars | JAC -3 | Jaguars |
| Saturday, Dec. 20 | Philadelphia Eagles at Washington | PHI -7.5 | Eagles |
| Saturday, Dec. 20 | San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers | SF -2.5 | Chargers |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears | DET -7.5 | Lions |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins | MIA -6.5 | Dolphins |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans | BAL -5 | Ravens |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers | CAR -3.5 | Panthers |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | NO -7 | Saints |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | GB -11.5 | Packers |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers | PIT -3 | Chiefs |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | New England Patriots at New York Jets | NE -10 | Patriots |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | New York Giants at St. Louis Rams | STL -5 | Rams |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders | BUF -5.5 | Bills |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys | DAL -2.5 | Cowboys |
| Sunday, Dec. 21 | Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | SEA -9.5 | Seahawks |
| Monday, Dec. 22 | Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals | DEN -3.5 | Broncos |
| 1 | New England Patriots (13-3) | 1 | Seattle Seahawks (12-4) |
| 2 | Denver Broncos (13-3) | 2 | Green Bay Packers (12-4) |
| 3 | Indianapolis Colts (11-5) | 3 | Dallas Cowboys (12-4) |
| 4 | Baltimore Ravens (11-5) | 4 | New Orleans Saints (8-8) |
| 5 | Kansas City Chiefs (10-6) | 5 | Arizona Cardinals (11-5) |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6) | 6 | Detroit Lions (11-5) |
AFC Picture
| 1 | Y -New England Patriots (11-3) |
| 2 | Y -Denver Broncos (11-3) |
| 3 | Y - Indianapolis Colts (10-4) |
| 4 | Cincinnati Bengals (9-4-1) |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers (9-5) |
| 6 | Baltimore Ravens (9-5) |
| Kansas City Chiefs (8-6) | |
| San Diego Chargers (8-6) | |
| Buffalo Bills (8-6) | |
| Houston Texans (7-7) | |
| Miami Dolphins (7-7) | |
| Cleveland Browns (7-7) |
Somehow, someway, the Cincinnati Bengals have stood atop the voracious AFC North. The NFL's most polarizing team, however, should enjoy it while it can.
Given a chance to stomp away the Pittsburgh Steelers, Cincinnati instead vaulted its rival into the heart of the hunt with a 42-21 loss. That signified the beginning of the end, until the Bengals bounced back to shut out the Cleveland Browns.
Andy Dalton put up a stinker, going 14-of-24 with 117 passing yards, zero touchdowns and a pick. Yet it didn't matter, as Jeremy Hill ran for more yards (148) than Cleveland's entire offense (107).
Granted, the Bengals are impossible to predict. They destroyed the Browns a month after getting demolished by them. They're good enough to catch fire and run the gauntlet, but they're bad enough to drop two straight and miss the postseason altogether.
As if their usual inconsistency wasn't enough, they now face the Denver Broncos on Monday night. With Hill and Giovani Bernard carrying the offense, facing Denver's No. 2-rated rushing defense presents a nightmarish scenario.
The times have certainly changed when Peyton Manning doesn't immediately surface as the primary reason a loss is imminent. Not only is the defense rolling, but C.J. Anderson has become every bit as instrumental to Denver's offense.
Over the past four weeks, the 23-year-old has gained 478 rushing yards and four touchdowns, averaging an obscene 27 carries per contest. While the old-school mentality led to a victory over the San Diego Chargers, it also resulted in the Broncos settling for five field goals.
Again, an offense managed by the greatest quarterback ever kicked five field goals. Mike Clay of Pro Football Focus detailed the rarity of the team frequently falling short of the end zone.
A healthy balance fuels each element of the offense, but Manning averaged 11.7 yards per attempt against San Diego compared to Anderson's 2.9 yards per carry. One of those numbers is larger than the other.
Despite a growing narrative of the Broncos hitting their stride by embracing the run game, they need to adjust the scale again to make another Super Bowl appearance. They can get away with more heavy rushing against Cincinnati's No. 24 rushing defense, but they need to open up the aerial attack again after the Bengals.
NFC Picture
| 1 | X - Arizona Cardinals (11-3) |
| 2 | Detroit Lions (10-4) |
| 3 | Dallas Cowboys (10-4) |
| 4 | New Orleans Saints (6-8) |
| 5 | Seattle Seahawks (10-4) |
| 6 | Green Bay Packers (10-4) |
| Philadelphia Eagles (9-5) | |
| Carolina Panthers (5-8-1) | |
| Atlanta Falcons (5-9) |
If the season ended today, the Arizona Cardinals and Detroit Lions would watch the first round from home, but only because they were waiting to host next round's games. The Green Bay Packers and Seattle Seahawks, meanwhile, would have to pack up their suitcases and play an opening-round bout on the road.
That is weird, and it shouldn't hold up.
Both NFC squads sporting byes brandish plus-43 point differentials, lower than those owned by the Buffalo Bills (+48) and Houston Texans (+47). Green Bay sits at a much sturdier plus-111, second only to the New England Patriots. Seattle ranks second in the NFC at plus-97.
Football Outsiders' weighted Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), a metric designed to measure overall team efficiency, also hints at the two wild-card competitors being much better than the adversaries they're chasing.
| Detroit Lions | 12 | Arizona Cardinals | 19 |
| Green Bay Packers | 4 | Seattle Seahawks | 5 |
Seattle can take matters into its own hands by defeating Arizona this weekend and claiming first place via head-to-head tiebreaker. This is a highly likely outcome given Arizona's starting quarterback.
After backup Drew Stanton hurt his knee last weekend, Bruce Arians will turn to Ryan Lindley on Sunday night. Per AZCardinals.com's Darren Urban, the coach will not coddle his third-stringer.
This is going to get ugly. Seattle currently touts the NFL's premier defense after allowing two touchdowns over the last four weeks. In 183 career passing attempts, Lindley possesses a 51.4 completion percentage, 4.3 yards per attempt, zero touchdowns and nine turnovers.
ESPN Stats & Info added to the flame.
Never has a shutout looked more probable. Regression will clobber the Cardinals in the mouth, sending the Seahawks back into control of the conference they conquered last season.
After suffering a hiccup at Baltimore, the Packers can unleash their frustration on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the Lions pounce on the wounded Chicago Bears. Out of those two, the Lions are more likely to stumble, as ESPN Stats & Info points out their troublesome past in similar situations.
Assuming both NFC North rivals take care of business, they'll set up a winner-take-all battle to close out the season. Detroit won Week 3's meeting, but look for Green Bay to return the favor at Lambeau, where it has yet to lose in seven tries.
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