NFL Predictions: Week 16 Awards Watch

We have just two weeks left in the 2014 NFL season, and they won't be without drama for some of the major awards.

Sure, some players have all but sewn up certain honors, but some uncharacteristic performances have muddied the waters elsewhere.

What looked like a sure thing for Aaron Rodgers just a week ago suddenly broke wide-open in the MVP race after the Buffalo Bills defense humbled its second consecutive elite opponent.

Can J.J. Watt catch him? Has Odell Beckham Jr. left the rookie competition in the dust? Is Luke Kuechly a dark horse on defense?

Most Valuable Player

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL MVP Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	1
2	J.J. Watt	DE	Texans	2
3	Tom Brady	QB	Patriots	3
4	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	4
5	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	5

 

Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

Well, this race has taken an interesting turn.

It seemed like a trap game in the making against a solid defense on the road for the Green Bay Packers, and Aaron Rodgers indeed posted the worst passer rating of his career in a bad loss against the Buffalo Bills. 

J.J. Watt, meanwhile, continued his campaign as Godzilla, anchoring a Houston Texans defense that allowed just 17 points to the vaunted Indianapolis Colts offense. So why hasn't he hopped Rodgers here?

For starters, the Texans still lost that game, likely pushing them out of playoff contention in the process. The MVP award should be handed to a player whose team at least makes the playoffs, right?

The Packers, meanwhile, still control their own destiny in the NFC North, and it is difficult to believe they will miss the playoffs. Anything could happen over the final two games, of course, but Rodgers and Co. have been fantastic for most of the season.

At any rate, doesn't the loss highlight Rodgers' importance? Green Bay wilted in the wake of a subpar performance from its star quarterback.

Alright, so a bad performance shouldn't boost a player's MVP candidacy, regardless of proving a point. Watt gained on Rodgers considerably last week, but it may not be enough to catch him if the Texans miss the playoffs and the Packers clinch the NFC North in these next two weeks.

Coach of the Year

Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Coach of the Year Race

Rank	Coach	Team	Last Week
1	Bruce Arians	Cardinals	1
2	Bill Belichick	Patriots	2
3	Jim Caldwell	Lions	3
4	Chip Kelly	Eagles	4
5	Pete Carroll	Seahawks	5

 

Winner: Bruce Arians, Arizona Cardinals

There is just no beating Bruce Arians for the award.

Somehow the Arizona Cardinals clinched a playoff spot and remained atop the NFC West last week despite losing their second quarterback of the year. 

Ryan Lindley is the latest to take the mantle under center, a man who has zero touchdown passes to seven interceptions in his career. He didn't look good, but the Cardinals managed to beat out a St. Louis team that had utterly dominated its opponents in the previous two weeks.

While it might seem like too much to overcome once the playoffs hit, the Cardinals are flying high right now thanks to Arians' coaching prowess, and there is little argument for anyone else to win this award.

Offensive Player of the Year

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Offensive Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Aaron Rodgers	QB	Packers	1
2	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	2
3	Le'Veon Bell	RB	Steelers	4
4	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	3
5	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Patriots	N/A

 

Winner: Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers

It wasn't a banner week for the top offensive players in the league, so there wasn't much change at the top.

Aaron Rodgers had the worst game of his career, statistically speaking. He is still the most efficient quarterback in the league by a wide margin.

DeMarco Murray scored a touchdown in victory but averaged just 2.6 yards per carry against the Philadelphia Eagles. He broke his hand in the effort, endangering his status Week 16 and, potentially, his candidacy for some awards in the process.

Andrew Luck overcame another pick-six, but he only put up 187 yards and two touchdowns in a 17-point effort. He still leads the league in passing yards and touchdowns, however.

Tom Brady did have a nice game against the Miami Dolphins, but he is probably too far back statistically to realistically contend for the award. Besides, Rob Gronkowski makes that offense go. 

Le'Veon Bell did have another strong showing—his fourth consecutive such game—which inched him closer to the top here. 

Out of all the races, this seems like the most wide-open heading into the final two weeks. Rodgers' rough showing in Buffalo let everyone else back into the mix

Defensive Player of the Year

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Defensive Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	J.J. Watt	DE	Texans	1
2	Justin Houston	OLB	Chiefs	2
3	Luke Kuechly	MLB	Panthers	3
4	Von Miller	OLB	Broncos	4
5	Darrelle Revis	CB	Patriots	5

 

Winner: J.J. Watt, DE, Houston Texans

This is starting to get boring.

Not J.J. Watt, that is, but the fact he is going to win the Defensive Player of the Year award in a landslide of Ronald Reagan-esque proportions.

Then there is poor Justin Houston, whose story of woe has also been detailed here over the past several weeks. Baltimore's Elvis Dumervil caught up to Houston in the sack department as they lead the league with 17.

So how about last year's winner, all-but-forgotten linebacker Luke Kuechly? Is he a dark horse in this year's race?

His numbers says so. Once again Kuechly leads the league in tackles with 138, a statistic that just about won him the award last season. He also has three sacks, an interception, a forced fumble and nine passes defended to round out his 2014 curriculum vitae.

It isn't just raw statistics that should make him a contender—Kuechly is the second-best inside linebacker in the land, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

None of that matters, however—Watt is going to win the award unless voters give him the MVP and decide to give this out as a consolation prize to Houston or Kuechly.

Offensive Rookie of the Year

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	Giants	2
2	Mike Evans.	WR	Buccaneers	1
3	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Panthers	3
4	Joel Bitonio	OG	Browns	4
5	Jeremy Hill	RB	Bengals	N/A

 

Winner: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

The apotheosis is complete.

In one fell swoop, Odell Beckham Jr. became a rookie deity with 12 receptions for 143 yards and three touchdowns last week, his seventh consecutive game of at least seven receptions for 90 yards. That is a rookie record.

Beckham vaulted himself into the Offensive Rookie of the Year contention with his amazing one-handed grab, and he may have won it with that massive performance last week. 

It will take a terrible couple of games or an injury to unseat him as the favorite for this award—an unlikely outcome regardless—but the man who could still unseat him still leads all rookies in touchdowns.

That man is Mike Evans for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who also had an impressive run earlier this season.

Carolina's Kelvin Benjamin may also still be in the mix despite falling off a bit in recent weeks. He is third in receiving yards and tied for second in touchdowns with Beckham, and he could well wind up the top rookie in both categories with a big finish.

Stats probably don't matter much at this point. Beckham is going to wind up near the top of his class despite having missed the first four games of the season, and he has clearly been the best rookie in the league.

Defensive Rookie of the Year

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Aaron Donald	DT	Rams	1
2	C.J. Mosley	ILB	Ravens	2
3	Khalil Mack	OLB	Raiders	3
4	Chris Borland	ILB	49ers	4
5	Preston Brown	OLB	Bills	5

 

Winner: Aaron Donald, DT, St. Louis Rams

There was no shutout for the St. Louis Rams, who fell to the Arizona Cardinals in a defensive battle. Aaron Donald was once again in the middle of it all.

The standout rookie stood tall once again, notching a sack in his fifth consecutive game to bring his total to eight on the season. He is still the top-rated defensive tackle in the entire league, per PFF, higher than guys like Detroit's Ndamukong Suh, Tampa Bay's Gerald McCoy and Buffalo's Marcell Dareus.

Despite his dominant play—particularly in the second half of the season—Donald may not be able to overcome C.J. Mosley's sparkling statistical season. 

The Ravens rookie has 120 tackles—tied for sixth in the league—three sacks, two interceptions and a forced fumble this season. He, too, is among the top-rated linebackers in the league to boot.

So is 49ers rookie Chris Borland, though his late start and recent ankle injury might short circuit his bid for the award.

NFL Rookie of the Year

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

In the Running

NFL Rookie of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	Giants	2
2	Mike Evans	WR	Buccaneers	1
3	Aaron Donald	DT	Rams	3
4	C.J. Mosley	ILB	Ravens	4
5	Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Panthers	2

 

Winner: Odell Beckham Jr., WR, New York Giants

It seemed possible the NFL Rookie of the Year award could be split off from the Offensive Player of the Year award—as has been the case several times since this award's inception—but Odell Beckham Jr. has all but eliminated that possibility.

Michael DiRocco of ESPN.com wrote this on Beckham after his huge Sunday:

"

Beckham missed the first four games of the season because of an injury and caught 10 passes for 106 yards and three touchdowns in his first three games. In the last seven, however, he has 61 receptions for 866 yards and six touchdowns. 

Just engrave the trophy now. 

"

That was the Offensive Rookie of the Year trophy DiRocco was writing about, but we may as well do it for the overall award at this point.

Comeback Player of the Year

Jared Wickerham/Getty Images

In the Running

NFL Comeback Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week
1	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Patriots	1
2	Jeremy Maclin	WR	Eagles	2
3	Julio Jones	WR	Falcons	3
4	Rolando McClain	LB	Cowboys	4
5	Von Miller	OLB	Broncos	N/A

 

Winner: Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

Like he often does with a football after lining up against a linebacker in coverage, Rob Gronkowski is running away with the Comeback Player of the Year award.

There are certainly other worthy candidates—Jeremy Maclin was the early front-runner, for example—but Gronkowski has overcome a vicious knee injury to regain his status as the top tight end in the league. It's not even close.

Here is what NFL.com's Chris Wesseling had to say about Gronkowski a few weeks back:

"

Gronkowski has gone from dragging his surgically repaired knee around in August and struggling to separate from defenders in September to dominating the NFL over the past eight weeks. The Patriots are averaging a league-best 40 points per game and haven't lost since Gronkowski recaptured pre-injury form in Week 4. Over the past three years, Tom Brady's production hinges almost entirely on his go-to receiver's health. That's MVP material. If Gronkowski wins the award, he will become the first tight end in history to do so.

"

The big tight end has only bolstered his case since then, and he is a veritable shoo-in for the award at this point.

Fantasy Player of the Year

Elsa/Getty Images

In the Running

Fantasy Football Player of the Year Race

Rank	Player	Pos.	Team	Last Week	Fantasy Points
1	DeMarco Murray	RB	Cowboys	1	274.2
2	Rob Gronkowski	TE	Patriots	2	175.3
3	Le'Veon Bell	RB	Steelers	4	264.3
4	Andrew Luck	QB	Colts	3	420.4
5	Odell Beckham Jr.	WR	Giants	N/A	160.0

 

Winner: DeMarco Murray, RB, Dallas Cowboys

What Odell Beckham Jr. has done this season is truly amazing. What he has done for his fantasy owners is give them steady—and sometimes otherworldly—production throughout the second half of the season.

He might not be among the top scorers at his position on the season, but he has been among the best in the second half of the season. He is certainly the year's waiver-wire wonder.

By far the steadiest performer this season from a fantasy standpoint has been DeMarco Murray, however, who has likely buoyed many a championship run. Unfortunately, his fantasy owners might have to do without him for championship week if his broken hand keeps him out of action.

Another big game from Rob Gronkowski could put him over the top for this award, however.

 

All fantasy statistics courtesy of FFToday.com. Unless otherwise stated, all other statistics courtesy of Pro-Football-Reference.com.

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