Week 15 Start 'Em, Sit 'Em: Highlighting Matchups to Exploit and Avoid

Position	Start	Sit
QB	Matt Ryan (vs. PIT)	Ryan Tannehill (@ NE)
RB	Jeremy Hill (@ CLE)	Boom Herron (vs. HOU)
WR	Kelvin Benjamin (vs. TB)	Golden Tate (@ MIN)
TE	Delanie Walker (vs. NYJ)	Coby Fleener (vs. HOU)

Fantasy football has always been a game of matchups. Unlike real football, which is a dynamic system in which every part affects the other, you're simply trying to piece together the lineup that will help you get by for that particular weekend.

Figuring out the correct matchups takes on heightened importance in the one-and-done nature of the fantasy playoffs. Much of your current roster is likely based off players you've acquired with a favorable finishing stretch. Now that most fantasy leagues have just two weeks remaining, this is the time for that sneaky waiver wire pick-up to pay dividends.

Taking a look at each of the skill positions for Week 15, let's highlight some of the best and worst individual matchups before lineups lock on Sunday.

Quarterback

The home-away splits are very real for Matt Ryan, whose yards-per-attempt average is nearly two yards higher at the Georgia Dome than on the road. While that may make him an undesirably fungible fantasy asset over the long haul, Ryan owners should be thrilled to have the Atlanta Falcons quarterback this week.

Ryan gets to face a battered Pittsburgh Steelers secondary that has allowed a combined 55 points to opposing quarterbacks over the past two games. It should be said that much of Ryan's value is contingent on Julio Jones suiting up, a proposition that Mike Smith suggested was likely. Losing a premier weapon like Jones would affect any quarterback, but the difference has been particularly pronounced with Ryan:

Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images

Unlike the Atlanta quarterback, Ryan Tannehill is unlikely to find much headway against the New England Patriots. Tannehill has had recent success against New England, having led the Dolphins to two consecutive wins over their AFC East rivals, but the Pats have conceded more than two passing touchdowns just twice and over 300 yards three times this season.

Indeed, Miami's Week 1 upset largely stemmed from the Dolphins' running backs ability to flummox New England with inside zones and read options, as Miami accrued 5.0 yards per rush that day. The Dolphins may be able to replicate that game plan to stay competitive in the rematch, but Tannehill's fantasy owners do not figure to benefit.

Running Back

"

In the 2nd half of gms this yr, Jeremy Hill is averaging 4.82 ypc. That's close to overall avg of 4.80. Gio Bernard averaging 2.78 in 2ndH

— Coley Harvey (@ColeyHarvey) December 12, 2014"

Backfield committees are a fantasy-owner's worst nightmare, something that has made Hue Jackson one of the most popular assistant coaches in the league this week. Upon Jackson's announcement that the Bengals are dumping the 50-50 split and starting Jeremy Hill over Giovani Bernard, the LSU rookie suddenly looks like a clear top-tier fantasy option.

Hill has been a clearly superior option, ranking as the 10th-best back in the league on a per-play basis, based on Football Outsiders' DVOA metric.  Conversely, Bernard ranks just 27th by FO's measures, with much of the difference coming in the second half:

This week, Hill gets to face an undersized Cleveland Browns front whose opposing rushing yardage numbers are deflated by poor competition. The Bengals didn't get much of a chance to establish the run in the first meeting amid Andy Dalton's historic struggles, but look for Hill to re-establish his value on Sunday.

Grant Halverson/Getty Images

Daniel "Boom" Herron was one of the backs the Browns limited last week, and it would be surprising to see much of a rebound performance against the Houston Texans. Houston has totally stifled three of its past four opponents on the ground (with the Cincinnati Bengals being the lone exception), and Indy's reshuffled interior line figures to have little chance against J.J. Watt.

Herron is not a particularly fleet-footed runner, and does his best work on interior gap-blocking concepts. Watt figures to destroy those against Indy, meaning that this could be a game where the Colts lean heavily towards Andrew Luck's arm for offensive production.

Wide Receiver

Kelvin Benjamin would typically be a no-brainer start against a woeful Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that has conceded the sixth-most points to wide receivers this season. But with Cam Newton out this week, some owners may be hesitant to rely on Derek Anderson to keep the prolific rookie's numbers afloat during this critical weekend.

However, the Panthers (and Benjamin's fantasy owners) are fortunate that Anderson's lone start this year also came against the Bucs, back in Week 1. Not only did Anderson himself perform well statistically, but he also targeted Benjamin eight times, one of which resulted in a 26-yard touchdown. Indeed, it's Benjamin's presence in the red zone that keeps him fantasy relevant almost regardless of the quarterback:

Whereas Benjamin makes up for raw technique with sheer target volume, Golden Tate is in virtually the opposite situation. Tate has proven capable of shouldering No. 1 WR responsibilities, as he compiled 24 catches for 349 yards during the one month Calvin Johnson missed, both of which were top-10 numbers in that span. However, since Megatron's return, Tate has returned to his ancillary role in the offense:

Indeed, Tate has not caught a touchdown since Johnson's return, a pattern that is unlikely to change against an underrated Minnesota Vikings secondary. The Vikes' young top trio of Xavier Rhodes, Captain Munnerlyn and Josh Robinson is a promising foundation, and one that figures to make Tate work for his already limited targets.

Tight End

Relying on tight ends with shaky quarterbacks is among the most frustrating situations a fantasy owner can work his or her way into. Nevertheless, Delanie Walker has made himself a viable weekly option despite a smorgasbord of mediocre options in Tennessee. Against a New York Jets defense allowing the fifth-most points to opposing tight ends, Walker is a must-start in all formats.

Walker owners will likely double take at that statement, since he has scored three or fewer points in four of his past five games (a stretch that includes two goose eggs). But with Jake Locker returning to the lineup, Walker gets the quarterback with whom he has had the greatest rapport this season. The combination of the quarterback change and a favorable matchup makes Walker an under-the-radar option for the many tight end needy fantasy lineups out there.

Conversely, Coby Fleener might be coming down from his recent highs. Fleener has become a highly appealing fantasy option during Dwayne Allen's absence, but Allen's return puts a huge dent in his value. Fleener figures to see a greater volume of targets, but Allen leads all currently active Colts with six red-zone catches and four touchdowns, per Pro-Football-Reference.

No tight end consistently garners enough yardage to be fantasy relevant through that alone. Moreover, the Texans have allowed the fourth-fewest points to opposing tight ends this season. Allen's return gives Fleener a smaller bite of the red-zone pie, making him a tough option to trust this week.