NFL Playoff Picture Week 14: AFC, NFC Wild-Card Scenarios and Predictions

This NFL season has seen an unusually strong middle class, leading to a plethora of teams with slightly above .500 records.  The action is especially wild in the AFC, where 12 teams remarkably remain within one game of a postseason berth.

Last week didn't do much to clarify the postseason picture, but with matchups such as Ravens-Dolphins, Steelers-Bengals and Colts-Browns on the docket, this Sunday will provide massive swings regardless of the winner.  The NFC is a little clearer, but with the woeful NFC South guaranteed of a postseason berth, a team currently sitting 8-4 or better is assured of missing the playoffs, possibly with an 11-5 record.

Taking a look at the current wild-card standings in each conference, let's highlight the most impactful games of the week and explain how they could shake up the playoff race.

AFC Standings	NFC Standings
5. San Diego Chargers (8-4)	5. Dallas Cowboys (9-4)
6. Miami Dolphins (7-5)	6. Seattle Seahawks (8-4)
7. Kansas City Chiefs (7-5)	7. Detroit Lions (8-4)
8. Buffalo Bills (7-5)	8. San Francisco 49ers (7-5)
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-5)
10. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5)
11. Cleveland Browns (7-5)
12. Houston Texans (6-6)

Ravens vs. Dolphins

This is quite literally the game with the most playoff implications on Sunday, at least as measured by FiveThirtyEight.  Baltimore and Miami both sit in the six-team 7-5 mosh pit, but despite that, one could argue that this effectively represents an elimination game for both squads.

The Ravens are in the worse immediate position, as they are crippled by a woeful 3-5 conference record, the worst among all the AFC wild-card contenders.  Baltimore also lost head-to-head against the San Diego Chargers and does not hold a win over any fellow wild-card contender besides Pittsburgh (whom they split the season series with).

However, while Baltimore likely needs to win out, the Dolphins probably cannot afford more than one loss.  Considering that they have a trip to Foxborough next weekend, losing at home on Sunday would almost assuredly cap Miami's potential at 9-7, a record that seems unlikely to propel the team into the playoffs.

If the Dolphins win, that would provide the most clarity to the postseason picture, as Miami would hold tiebreakers over San Diego, Baltimore and (most likely) Buffalo while losing the head-to-head against Kansas City.  In that instance, the Ravens would effectively be done, while Miami could afford a Week 15 loss and still make the playoffs by beating the Vikings and Jets over the last two weeks of the season.

With Haloti Ngata suspended and Baltimore's secondary in shambles, Ryan Tannehill should have a big day through the air.  Coupled with a return to health for starting corner Cortland Finnegan, Miami simply outguns Baltimore at this point, especially with the game taking place at Sun Life Stadium.

Prediction: Miami 22, Baltimore 16

Steelers vs. Bengals

The AFC North has garnered consideration as the best division in the game, a sentiment the standings would support.  However, those records are partially inflated by a historically lopsided interconference matchup against the NFC South, and in reality, all four North squads have been enigmatic at times this season.

However, the Cincinnati Bengals have finally opened up a bit of breathing space and could effectively end the race entirely if chalk holds.  If the favorites win every game with an AFC North team involved, the Bengals would open up a 2.5-game lead with three weeks remaining, essentially sealing what had been an extremely tight race and putting themselves in position to potentially steal a first-round bye.

The Steelers have been the one division team that has failed to exploit the NFC South, having lost two games to New Orleans and Tampa Bay.  That's been a devastating anchor on Pittsburgh's playoff hopes, as it does not own any head-to-head tiebreakers against wild-card hopefuls outside of its division.

The Steelers will get a chance to earn one when they host Kansas City in Week 16, but that meeting may not matter if the Steelers lose for the third time in their past four games.  Le'Veon Bell figures to exploit a Cincy defense that ranks dead last in DVOA against the run, as the Bengals have struggled without versatile "Will" linebacker Vontaze Burfict.

However, Bell's 255 yards from scrimmage did not help the Steelers last week against the Saints, as Pittsburgh's defense is hemorrhaging yardage at this point.  Injuries and a lack of development have forced veterans like James Harrison and Ike Taylor into oversized roles.  Playing at home, look for the good Andy Dalton to show up and help the Bengals create separation in the division race while making the Steelers look like postseason long shots.

Prediction: Cincinnati 26, Pittsburgh 22

Chiefs vs. Cardinals

This matchup pits a pair of free-falling teams, as Kansas City and Arizona have each lost two in a row.  Though both looked like safe playoff bets at midseason, the Chiefs and Cardinals are arguably facing a must-win, as a loss would lead to full panic mode from their respective fanbases.

The Chiefs are in the direr short-term situation, as they have fallen out of the playoffs based on tiebreakers.  Kansas City has thrived playing in a specific fashion, as its personnel are conducive to controlling the clock with Jamaal Charles and high-percentage West Coast passing concepts.  But when the Chiefs fell behind by double digits in each of the past two games, the offensive personnel were too inflexible to adjust and spur a comeback.

The NFC wild-card race is less compelling this week, but Arizona would enter the race with another loss.  Even if Seattle falls at Philly this week, the Cards would drop to 9-4 with a loss, which would tie them with the Cowboys and Lions (if Detroit beats Tampa at home).  

Advanced metrics have disliked the Cardinals all season, and Arizona's record is beginning to match the underlying numbers.  Since Drew Stanton entered the lineup three weeks ago, the Cardinals' minus-19 point differential is tied for eighth-worst in the league over that span, per Pro-Football-Reference.  With Tyrann Mathieu out and Andre Ellington severely limited, the injury bug is gradually picking off Arizona's biggest playmakers.

That could jump-start the stagnant Chiefs, who face games with massive wild-card implications the final two weeks against Pittsburgh and San Diego.  Look for Kansas City to pull itself back into the wild-card picture as the Cardinals slip into it themselves.

Prediction: Chiefs 18, Cardinals 16