Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 14: Debating Difficult Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions

Sunday commences the most wonderful time of the year for fantasy football players, as most leagues are beginning their postseasons this weekend.  After playing the long game for three months, your entire season may boil down to something as fluky as a twisted ankle in the first quarter or a 200-yard performance from an unheralded backup.

Thus, it is absolutely critical that your team win along the margins.  When looking for flex plays or low-end No. 2 skill position spots, the smallest boost often makes the difference between playing for even higher stakes next week or playing for nothing at all.

With that in mind, let's take a look at some of the most divisive players at each position, highlighting the most noteworthy players in deeper analysis below.

Position	Start	Sit
QB	Ryan Tannehill (vs. BAL)	Matt Ryan (@ GB)
RB	Daniel "Boom" Herron (@ CLE)	LeGarrette Blount (@ SD)
WR	Kenny Stills (vs. CAR)	Keenan Allen (vs. NE)
TE	Kyle Rudolph (vs. NYJ)	Travis Kelce (@ ARZ)
D/ST	Packers (vs. ATL)	Bengals (vs. PIT)
K	Connor Barth (vs. BUF)	Chandler Catanzaro (vs. KC)

Start 'Em

Ryan Tannehill

Tannehill remains one of the league's most polarizing quarterbacks.  Though he has stabilized a bit under new offensive coordinator Bill Lazor, performances like last Monday's clunker against the woeful New York Jets secondary continue to raise questions about Tannehill's long-term viability.

However, against a depleted Ravens defense, the third-year quarterback should find plenty of wide-open throwing windows.  The Dolphins offense often draws man coverage because of its tempo and misdirection; that spells disaster for a Baltimore secondary employing the likes of Danny Gorrer and Anthony Levine because of injuries and poor offseason depth-building.  

Given that the Miami receivers are likely to win those one-on-ones, all that is left for Tannehill is to hit those open and defined throws.  The concrete and simplified reads in Lazor's system have undeniably helped Tannehill's accuracy; not only is his 66.5 percent completion percentage well above the 59.4 percent rate from his first two seasons, but his recent accuracy is on par with some of the best streaks of all time:

The Ravens have allowed at least 26 fantasy points to three of the last four quarterbacks they have faced, the lone exception being Zach Mettenberger.  Tannehill is far above that level and represents a true No. 1 play this Sunday.

Boom Herron

In spite of public ridicule, the Indianapolis Colts have continued to stick with Trent Richardson for much of the 2014 season.  Office politics are likely the driving force behind Indy's stubborn insistence to play arguably the league's worst regular back, as general manager Ryan Grigson could not simply wash away a player he gave up a first-round pick for.

But with that pick transferred last May, it appears Indy may be on the verge of cutting its losses with Richardson.  The ex-Cleveland Brown has gotten fewer than 10 carries in three of the past four games.  And with Ahmad Bradshaw sidelined for the season, previously anonymous back Daniel "Boom" Herron has been the primary beneficiary, receiving 20 carries over the last two games and rushing for 153 total yards.

As the Colts prepare to face Richardson's old team, look for Herron to receive even more carries.  It is infuriating that Indy continues to insist on a timeshare between the two, but even if Herron's touches are capped at 10-12 per game, it is clear that he has the home-run ability to cash in on those limited touches:

The Browns have been depleted along the defensive line, with undersized linemen like Ahtyba Rubin and Billy Winn asked to play out of position as two-gapping anchors.  Consequently, the Browns have conceded double-digit fantasy points to opposing running backs four of the past five weeks.  Even if Richardson eats into his snap count, look for Herron to establish himself as a viable flex play this week.

Sit 'Em

LeGarrette Blount

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Since returning to Foxborough, Blount has recaptured the magic that made him a fantasy darling at the end of the 2013 season.  Over two games, Blount has accrued 136 yards and two touchdowns on a remarkable 6.2 yards-per-attempt average.  As such, many are treating him as a clear-cut No. 2 moving forward.

Unfortunately, Bill Belichick's adherence to a true backfield-by-committee philosophy is fantasy anathema.  Despite his production, Blount has received just 22 touches over the past two weeks, basically requiring that he remain uber-efficient on a per-carry basis to hold fantasy relevance.  Last Sunday, Belichick essentially trolled all fantasy owners by starting Brandon Bolden, who had received 15 carries all year yet managed to vulture away a goal-line touchdown.

This week, look for passing back Shane Vereen to receive the majority of the snaps.  The Pats have preached for balance after turning away from the run last Sunday, but New England's versatility enables it to morph its offense to press upon the opposition's weakness.  This week's opponent, the San Diego Chargers, ranks 18th against the run and 30th against the pass, based on Football Outsiders' opponent-adjusted DVOA metric.

Thus, look for the Pats to employ spread formations with their deadly 12 personnel (2 WR, 2 TE, 1 RB), much like they did two weeks ago against the Detroit Lions.  That package would typically use Vereen, so unless Blount happens to receive some goal-line carries, his fantasy production has a very firm ceiling this week.

Keenan Allen

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Though he has frustrated fantasy owners all year, Allen has been due for a turnaround.  Headed into last Sunday, Allen had received the second-most red-zone targets of any Charger yet scored on an unsustainably low 10 percent of those targets, according to Pro-Football-Reference.  When he broke out with two scores against Baltimore last week, that was simply a case of long-overdue regression to the mean.

But while Allen owners may be giddy to get San Diego's top receiver back into their lineups, this week represents a poor time to do so.  The Patriots have allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers this season, a byproduct of a deep and versatile secondary.  Most distressingly, Allen figures to draw Darrelle Revis on the majority of his snaps:

Not that he needs any further validation, but Revis has retaken the mantle as the league's best cornerback, at least since the calendar flipped to October.  In that time span, Pro Football Focus (subscription required) has graded Revis at plus-16.9 overall, tops among all cornerbacks.  Revis has not allowed more than 71 yards in coverage against a single opponent all season and has given up just two touchdowns in total.

Despite his quickness, Allen relies more on size and route running to create separation—the type of receiver Revis blankets best.  Unless the Patriots go with an unexpected game-plan wrinkle, Allen seems unlikely to escape from Revis Island on Sunday night.

*All points-against information based on ESPN standard league scoring.