NFL Picks Week 14: Top Underdog Odds, MoneylIne Advice and Predictions

No byes or Thanksgiving games will shrink Sunday's Week 14 schedule. Aside from the usual Thursday night bout, football fans are in for a full day of competition.

Few of those games are throwaway contests, which are hard to find with only six teams officially eliminated from playoff contention. Entering December, nearly the entire league remains alive and fighting to keep playing into 2015.

Those not as fortunate can either mar their records for Marcus Mariota or play spoiler to postseason contenders. Given a host of colossal betting lines, they could climb up the draft board while covering spreads for bettors.

Although a few underdogs are well positioned to sneak below the spread, a favorite represents the week's best bet to tower far past the small line.

Time (ET)	Matchup (Spread)	Moneyline	Prediction
1 p.m.	Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-3)	PIT +150, CIN -170	PIT 27-23
1 p.m.	Indianapolis (-3.5) at Cleveland	IND -190, CLE +165	IND 31-17
1 p.m.	Tampa Bay at Detroit (-10.5)	TB +380, DET -475	DET 24-17
1 p.m.	Houston (-7) at Jacksonville	HOU -260, JAX +220	HOU 23-14
1 p.m.	Baltimore at Miami (-2.5)	BAL +125, MIA -145	MIA 30-27
1 p.m.	NY Jets at Minnesota (-7)	NYJ +230, MIN -270	17-6 MIN
1 p.m.	Carolina at New Orleans (-10.5)	CAR +380, NO -475	37-23 NO
1 p.m.	NY Giants at Tennessee (Even)	NYG -110, TEN -110	23-17 NYG
1 p.m.	St. Louis (-3) at Washington	STL -140, WAS +160	22-16 STL
4:05 p.m.	Kansas City at Arizona (Even)	KC -110, ARI -110	17-10 KC
4:05 p.m.	Buffalo at Denver (-10)	BUF +380, DEN -475	34-13 DEN
4:25 p.m.	San Francisco (-9.5) at Oakland	SF -400, OAK +325	17-10 SF
4:25 p.m.	Seattle at Philadelphia (Even)	SEA +106, PHI -117	27-23 SEA
8:30 p.m.	New England (-3.5) at San Diego	NE -190, SD +165	30-24 NE
8:30 p.m. (Mon.)	Atlanta at Green Bay (-13)	ATL +460, GB -620	42-24 GB

Moneyline Tip

Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) over Cleveland Browns

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

When the Indianapolis Colts win, they win big.

At 8-4, they boast a plus-99 point differential, which trails only the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers. That's impressive considering their two big losses to the Patriots and the Pittsburgh Steelers, during which they were buried by a combined 39 points.

The have obtained their triumphs by a 16-point scoring margin, winning five games by more than 20 points. Against teams with losing records, that mark shoots up to 21.8.

This is where readers are hitting the breaks and yelling, "Hey, the Cleveland Browns are 7-5!" Indeed. But while only one game separates these two teams in the standings, the talent gap stretches farther than the Springfield Gorge.

Cleveland has won four games by five points or fewer to teams with a combined 14-34 record. Football Outsiders tracks the AFC North squad at No. 21 overall in defense-adjusted value over average, a measure of team efficiency. A plus-seven point differential also supports the hypothesis that the Browns have played over their heads. 

Anybody hoping for Johnny Manziel to save the day will have to wait, as Mike Pettine is sticking with Brian Hoyer despite a recent rough patch. Fox Sports' Jay Glazer broke the news Wednesday:

In his last four games, Hoyer has thrown one touchdown and six interceptions, completing 53.1 percent of his passes. The coach gave a standard yet flawed explanation in a release:

"

After thorough evaluation and talking to the staff, we feel Brian gives us the best opportunity to win on Sunday. This is a football decision and those are always going to be based on what we think is best for our team. Brian has led our team to a 7-5 record. I’m confident that we can get the entire offense playing at the level needed to accomplish the goals we set at the beginning of the season. Those goals are still very much attainable.

"

Right. Hoyer has won them games. Remember that time he courageously threw three interceptions, two in the fourth quarter, to fend off the Atlanta Falcons? Don't forget when Cleveland beat the Steelers by 21 points on the strength of eight completed passes. 

Throw in a 56.3 completion percentage, which ranks right below Geno Smith at 33rd-best among quarterbacks, and the 29-year-old is carrying Cleveland on his back.

That isn't to say Manziel would definitely outplay Hoyer. Quite frankly, neither guy would give the team a good shot at beating the Colts. But with the rookie, fear of the unknown would have at least caused some concern, as he boasts a higher ceiling without recent struggles to sully his stock.

Now, this spread conjures the week's easiest pick.

It's safe to say there are no quarterback issues on the other side. Andrew Luck has already amassed 4,011 passing yards, putting him on pace for 5,348. In the process, as noted by Pro Football Talk's Michael David Smith, the 25-year-old has accomplished something his predecessor never did:

Cleveland sports one of the league's premier passing defenses, allowing a 58.0 completion percentage and 6.5 yards per attempt. The unit has, however, padded its numbers against easy competition, facing only one top-16 passing offense (Atlanta) since its Week 4 bye.

Matt Ryan finished with a respectable 273 yards, two touchdowns and a pick during that meeting, so don't worry about the league's most prolific offense putting up points in Ohio. The Colts will continue their trend of clobbering inferior adversaries.

Prediction: Colts 31, Browns 17