Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 14: Choosing Top Fantasy Football Locks and Flops

It's the holiday season, and like most folks, fantasy football enthusiasts are practicing the art of giving. However, instead of handing out gifts, they are meticulously researching and analyzing all available information in hopes of handing out devastating losses to competing league owners.

After all, it's the fantasy playoffs.

Going with the giving theme, it's about time you're given advice for a few difficult lineup calls in Week 14. Due to some interesting matchups this week, you may run into certain scenarios where you'll be intrigued by the possibility of benching one of your regular starters for a bench player who has some huge upside. Sometimes that's the right move, and sometimes it knocks you out of the playoffs.

Yeah, it's a pretty important decision.

In an effort to quell your fears over making the wrong choice, here's a look at three examples—one for quarterback, one for running back and one for wide receiver—of comparisons between a player who is destined to be a lock for a big game and a couple who will flop for their fantasy owners this week.

Quarterback: Start Ryan Tannehill over Colin Kaepernick and Cam Newton

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Fantasy owners may be a bit wary of starting Tannehill in Week 14 following his brutal performance against a porous New York Jets secondary on Monday Night Football. However, there are plenty of reasons to have faith in the quarterback this week.

Most football fans and analysts know what divisional contests can do to the best fantasy players. Tannehill's Week 13 showing was nothing more than a weak fantasy performance due to a hard-fought AFC East battle. This type of thing happens every week—there is nothing wrong with Tannehill going forward.

That said, fantasy owners should enjoy a nice bounce-back performance in Week 14 at home against a terrible Baltimore Ravens secondary.

The Ravens are allowing an average of 18.1 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season, the fifth most in the NFL. They're coming off a game in which they allowed San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers to march in to M&T Bank Stadium and put up 383 yards and three touchdowns for 26 fantasy points.

Baltimore is without top cornerback Jimmy Smith, and that's been wildly apparent in recent games—in three of their last four contests, the Ravens have allowed 35, 27 and 26 fantasy points to quarterbacks named Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees and Rivers. There's no reason to think Tannehill won't follow suit.

Let's not forget one other thing this signal-caller brings to the table. Bleacher Report's Ryan Riddle tweeted one aspect of Tannehill's game that helps both Miami's offense and the quarterback's fantasy owners:

San Francisco 49ers quarterback Colin Kaepernick may seem to have a favorable matchup against the lowly Oakland Raiders, but beware—this quarterback hasn't put up more than 13 fantasy points since Week 6, and he's coming off a one-point showing against the Seattle Seahawks. The Raiders may be a bad team, but they have only allowed opposing quarterbacks to eclipse 17 fantasy points just four times this season.

Carolina Panthers signal-caller Cam Newton has been all over the place lately. In fact, it should be pretty safe to say he's been downright bad. Newton has tallied more than 13 fantasy points just once over his last five games, and while he has a favorable matchup against the New Orleans Saints, this defense managed to hold him to just 12 fantasy points the last time they faced off. Look elsewhere for a starter this week.

Running Back: Start Joique Bell over Giovani Bernard and Lamar Miller

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Bell hasn't been much of a fantasy stud at all this season; however, patient owners were paid off in a big way in Week 13, as he burned the Chicago Bears for 91 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries for 22 fantasy points. Happy Thanksgiving, indeed.

Adding to the offense's success was improved play from the offensive line. Head coach Jim Caldwell praised his young players for stepping up in a big way during an interview with Tim Twentyman of DetroitLions.com:

"

Luc [Cornelius Lucas] did a nice job. But, the thing about it, Luc's had, early in the season when he had to step in there and play, he's got some snaps under his belt.

With he and Swanson (Travis) stepping in there and doing a nice job, you have to commend those guys. They're working against some pretty formidable rushers. Jared Allen is still a player, Willie (Young) can rush the passer, all those guys certainly can give you problems and both guys hung in there and did a very good job. I'm anxious to really take a look at the film.

"

Although, it's easy for fantasy enthusiasts to simply call that game a fluke. After all, Bell had eclipsed 11 fantasy points just once this year prior to that contest. No matter your stance on the matter, we should all be able to agree he has a fantastic matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 14.

The Buccaneers are allowing an average of 18.1 fantasy points to opposing ball-carriers and have been susceptible against running backs both on the ground and in the passing game, giving up a total of 13 touchdowns to the position this season—nine on the ground and four through the air.

Running backs have been getting large workloads against this defense this season, ripping off at least 20 carries per game against Tampa Bay. That's a great sign for Bell, who received all 23 of his team's carries against the Bears. Expect that same workload to translate into an equally big day against the Buccaneers.

Cincinnati Bengals running back Giovani Bernard lost plenty of his fantasy appeal while he was sidelined with a hip injury. Rookie Jeremy Hill broke loose, rushing for more than 150 yards twice in the three games Bernard missed. That led to a timeshare in the backfield, with Hill getting slightly more carries over the team's last two games. ESPN.com's Coley Harvey broke down the snap counts:

Bernard's value just isn't the same.

Miami Dolphins running back Lamar Miller may be tearing it up this season, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, but he isn't getting enough touches, eclipsing the 100-yard mark just once this season. Now, he's set to face a Ravens defense that is only allowing 10.3 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs and has only allowed one 100-yard performance and just four rushing touchdowns this season. Ouch.

Wide Receiver: Start Kenny Stills over Mike Evans and Andre Johnson

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Stills has finally come into his own since his role increased on the Saints offense following a season-ending injury to rookie wide receiver Brandin Cooks. Without the speedy Cooks in the fold, Stills resumed his status as the team's go-to deep threat, and fantasy owners who were quick to snag him off the waiver wire were immediately rewarded.

Coming off a strong performance, catching five passes for 162 yards and one touchdown for 22 fantasy points against the Steelers, Stills has earned plenty of trust from his quarterback and has seen an increase in targets as a result. Expect that trend to continue in Week 14 against the Carolina Panthers, and get used to seeing more tweets like this, via NFL:

Carolina hasn't been good against opposing wide receivers this season, allowing an average of 23.4 fantasy points per game to the position, the ninth most in the league. The team has also given up 18 touchdowns to wideouts, which is behind just the Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles. Adding to the team's struggles, the Panthers have allowed at least one touchdown to a wide receiver in nine of 12 games this season.

Expect Stills to continue his role as the team's top vertical threat against a team that is no stranger to giving up some big plays through the air. Stills is a home-run hitter, and he'll get a good chance to knock one out of the park this week.

Buccaneers' rookie wide receiver Mike Evans has been held to fewer than 50 yards over his last two contests. Now, he's faced with the task of taking on a stingy Detroit Lions defense that's giving up an average of just 17.2 fantasy points to opposing wideouts, the third fewest in the league. The Lions haven't allowed a single touchdown to a wide receiver in half their games this year, making Evans a big gamble.

Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson is officially the team's No. 2 option, as DeAndre Hopkins has emerged. At face value, Johnson appears to have a favorable matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week; however, expect Houston to run the ball frequently with a healthy Arian Foster back in the fold. This game plan will hold Johnson to yet another single-digit fantasy performance.

All fantasy football rankings and statistics courtesy of ESPN.com and current as of December 3.