Projecting the Top 25 Fantasy Running Backs of Week 14
The running back position is arguably the toughest to project when it comes to fantasy football.
How many touches will the back receive? How will the game shape the team’s offensive strategy—if the team gets down early, will it abandon the run and pass the ball with more regularity? What do current trends tell us about the running back and the opposing defense? What role will the weather play in the matchup?
These are just some of the countless questions you must ask yourself as a fantasy owner while striving to set the optimal lineup heading into your matchup.
Whether you’re playing “traditional” fantasy football in season-long leagues or daily fantasy games, a great deal of research and preparation is necessary in order to come out on top, especially while attempting to predict 100-yard rushers and which backs have the best chance at reaching paydirt.
Here are the top 25 fantasy running backs for Week 14, based on recent performance and their current matchup.
Potential Sleepers
1 of 26
Chris Ivory (New York Jets) vs. Minnesota Vikings
In Week 13’s ground-and-pound offensive play-calling by the New York Jets offense, Ivory saw 16 carries and picked up 62 yards on the ground against the Dolphins. However, New York’s season might now turn to an experiment, and Chris Johnson, who had one more carries than Ivory last week, might get an opportunity to prove his worth this week against the Minnesota Vikings.
Pierre Thomas (New Orleans Saints) vs. Carolina Panthers
Thomas has not had to do much since returning from injury due to the emergence of teammate Mark Ingram. Last week, he rushed the ball just three times for 21 yards and caught two passes for 16 yards. However, this matchup against the porous Carolina defense might be just what Thomas needs to get back into the swing of things. Unlike Ingram, Thomas is effective catching the ball out of the backfield and might be utilized in that way moving forward.
Darren Sproles (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Seattle Seahawks
At the beginning of the season, Sproles had a string of incredible games. Then he went down with an injury and hasn’t quite been the same since. If the Eagles expect to beat the Seattle defense, they must keep them off balance. The best way of doing this would be to set up confusing play-action plays and screens for Sproles out of the backfield, as the Seahawks possess a top pass defense and top rush defense. Last week, he had just one carry for 13 yards and three receptions for 19 yards, but might be used more in this heavyweight matchup.
25. Marion Grice (Arizona Cardinals) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
2 of 26
"Andre Ellington is dealing with a "severe" hip pointer, which is expected to hold him out of practice this week. http://t.co/c4EHuY7mIn
— RotoWire (@RotoWire) December 3, 2014"
Andre Ellington has a serious hip-pointer injury and might miss this weekend’s matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs. Kansas City has given up just two rushing touchdowns this season, so don’t expect Grice to find the end zone, but he showed a versatility last week when he replaced Ellington, rushing the ball five times for 16 yards and catching three passes for 24 yards.
Ellington has had one of the largest workloads of all NFL running backs this season, so if he can’t go—he looks doubtful—Grice should receive quite a few looks both rushing and catching the football out of the backfield.
24. Bishop Sankey (Tennessee Titans) vs. New York Giants
3 of 26
The rookie is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry this season and has two touchdowns, but this might be the week that he finally runs wild. In Week 13, Sankey rushed for 42 yards against the Texans.
Despite the fact that he hasn’t rushed for more than 61 yards in any game this season, this matchup is too favorable to ignore. The Giants have the second-worst rush defense in the NFL (behind the Titans) and have given up 140.6 yards on the ground per game to go along with an NFL-worst 4.9 yards per carry. However, despite the favorable matchup, the unproven Sankey remains outside of the top 20.
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23. Lamar Miller (Miami Dolphins) vs. Baltimore Ravens
4 of 26
The Baltimore Ravens have been the fourth-best team in the NFL against the run this season, giving up just 86.2 rushing yards per game to go along with seven touchdowns on the ground. Lamar Miller has averaged 4.3 or more yards per carry in each of his past three games, and despite the tough matchup, he should see a nice deal of touches. This can be considered a volume play, as backup running back Daniel Thomas saw just one carry last game, and Miller is the unquestioned starting running back for this playoff-hungry squad.
22. LeGarrette Blount (New England Patriots) vs. San Diego Chargers
5 of 26
Perhaps the only person in New England that hates LeGarrette Blount right now is Jonas Gray, who saw his starting job disappear in a flash despite his incredible 200-yard rushing performance. In his first two games in his second stint with the team, Blount had 12 carries for 78 yards and two touchdowns against the Lions and then 10 carries for 58 yards against the Packers.
The Chargers have given up 110.2 rushing yards per game this season, and while this contest will likely be a shootout between Tom Brady and Philip Rivers, Blount will see all goal-line opportunities for an explosive Patriots offense.
21. Ryan Mathews (San Diego Chargers) vs. New England Patriots
6 of 26
The Patriots have given up 110.0 rushing yards per game and just five rushing touchdowns this season. Nevertheless, rushing the football is the way to beat New England, and if the Chargers want to make an early statement, they must come out with an ability to run the ball up the middle through the Patriots front seven—the weaker part of the defense.
Last week, Packers running back Eddie Lacy picked up 98 yards on the ground against the Patriots defense en route to a victory. Mathews has the potential to turn in big days on the ground, as evidenced by his 105-yard performance in Week 12 against the St. Louis Rams.
20. Chris Johnson (New York Jets) vs. Minnesota Vikings
7 of 26
As mentioned in the “sleepers” slide before this, Johnson had 17 carries in the loss to the Dolphins on Monday night. He also picked up 105 rushing yards and looked like a version of himself from four years ago. He’s looking to prove himself worthy of a contract extension and will likely get the opportunity to do so this week against the Vikings, as the 2-10 Jets are playing for pride at this point.
19. Jeremy Hill (Cincinnati Bengals) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
8 of 26
I never thought I would rate Hill higher than teammate Giovani Bernard this week, but nonetheless, Hill comes in at No. 19. Despite Bernard returning from injury, Hill has seen double-digit carries in the last two weeks and will likely serve as the goal-line back, as well as split total carries somewhat evenly with Bernard.
It’s important to note that the Steelers have given up eight rushing touchdowns this season. With Andy Dalton’s struggles against the Buccaneers, it’s likely that the Bengals will lean more toward the run this week, where both Hill and Bernard may receive 15-plus carries. Since Hill will likely get the opportunities in the red zone, he gets the edge over Bernard on this list.
18. Daniel Herron (Indianapolis Colts) vs. Cleveland Browns
9 of 26
“Boom” Herron has shown the ability to put together nice games on the ground in his first two starting opportunities. A more explosive back than Trent Richardson, Herron will likely serve as the starter this week as well, coming off two solid performances of 12 carries for 65 yards in Week 12 against the Jaguars and eight carries for 88 yards last game against the Redskins.
The Browns have given up 132.5 rushing yards per game this season, which is fourth-most in the NFL, so Herron has the opportunity to have a big game. He’s not ranked higher because Richardson will still steal some carries from him.
17. Terrance West (Cleveland Browns) vs. Indianapolis Colts
10 of 26
"Yet another injury: RB Isaiah Crowell out or limited in practice. Adds to WR Miles Austin being placed on IR. #Browns
— PatMcManamon (@PatMcManamon) December 3, 2014"
Reports have indicated that Isaiah Crowell might miss Sunday’s game with an injured hip. That means that West will likely see an influx in carries, as the Browns tend to run the ball a lot. Despite seeing just seven carries last week against the Bills, West averaged 4.6 yards per carry against a tough defense while picking up 32 yards on the ground.
While the Colts have been solid against the rush all season, giving up 107.7 yards per game (20th most in the NFL), they have given up 12 rushing touchdowns, which is tied for the third-most in the league.
16. Joique Bell (Detroit Lions) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
11 of 26
Bell has emerged into the every-down back for the Lions, as Reggie Bush has been either injured or inconsistent this season. Last game, Bell had 23 carries for 91 yards in a victory over the Bears. The Buccaneers have given up 116.0 rushing yards per game this season to go along with 11 rushing touchdowns, so this is a favorable matchup for Bell, even if Bush returns from injury.
15. Alfred Morris (Washington Redskins) vs. St. Louis Rams
12 of 26
Morris has been perhaps the only Redskins player—other than Colt McCoy—to benefit from Robert Griffin III’s struggles this season. Morris has logged 17 or more carries in each of the past six games and will likely see a similar number against St. Louis this week. He also had a three-game streak of recording 92 or more yards in that span, with a high of 125 in Week 12.
The Rams are in the middle of the pack, giving up 111.2 rushing yards per game, so there looks to be a considerable amount of opportunity for Morris to put together another solid performance.
14. LeSean McCoy (Philadelphia Eagles) vs. Seattle Seahawks
13 of 26
You may be shaking your head at this one, but let me explain. Over his past two games, McCoy has looked like the Shady of last season, picking up 130 and 159 yards, respectively, on the ground.
This week will be considerably tougher, as he goes up against a Seattle defense that’s given up just 86.3 rushing yards per game to go along with seven rushing touchdowns. However, he will likely see a large volume of carries, and the Seahawks haven’t exactly performed well this season against elite running backs, as DeMarco Murray picked up 119 yards against them in Week 6 and Jamaal Charles gained 159 against them in Week 11. Nonetheless, the Seahawks defense keeps him out of the top 10 this week.
13. C.J. Anderson (Denver Broncos) vs. Buffalo Bills
14 of 26
The Bills have one of the best rush defenses in the NFL this year, giving up just 96.3 yards per game. But it’s hard to ignore Anderson’s recent breakout success over the past two weeks; he has gained an incredible 167 and 168 yards, respectively, to go along with a rushing touchdown and six total receptions for a combined 45 yards. However, this may be a classic “trap” play, as he has likely plateaued. For that reason, he is denied a top-10 designation.
12. Frank Gore (San Francisco 49ers) vs. Oakland Raiders
15 of 26
Gore has had two very depressing performances in a row, picking up just 36 and 28 yards, respectively, on the ground over the past two weeks on 2.8 yards per carry in each contest. However, he will have a favorable matchup against the Raiders this week, who have given up 13 rushing touchdowns this season (tied for second-most in the NFL) to go along with 130.5 yards on the ground per game.
11. Tre Mason (St. Louis Rams) vs. Washington Redskins
16 of 26
The Redskins are in the top half of the league in opponents' rushing yards per game, giving up 102.8 per game to go along with eight rushing touchdowns. However, Tre Mason has been on fire lately, posting two performances of 113-plus rushing yards in his last three games. He's also coming off a dominant three-touchdown performance in Week 13, where he picked up 117 rushing yards and 47 receiving yards.
The Rams are letting their rookie run wild and are 4-0 this season when Mason has rushed for more than 65 yards. That's not a coincidence.
10. Marshawn Lynch (Seattle Seahawks) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
17 of 26
While this may seem like a low ranking for Lynch, who has 956 rushing yards and nine rushing touchdowns this season, it’s important to note that the Eagles pass defense will likely be the area that the Seahawks offense will look to attack, as Philadelphia has given up a plethora of 300-plus yard passing games this season to opposing quarterbacks.
Having allowed 107.7 rushing yards per game and seven rushing touchdowns this season, the Eagles will likely prevent Lynch from having a huge game, but they will have their hands full containing Russell Wilson and his passing attack.
9. Jamaal Charles (Kansas City Chiefs) vs. Arizona Cardinals
18 of 26
Charles is dealing with a bruised knee during practice this week but looks like he will be ready to go for this big game against the Cardinals. Coming off a 35-yard rushing performance in which he had 10 carries in a loss to the Broncos, he will look to make a statement in this important game.
Shockingly, Charles has had just one 100-plus-yard performance on the ground this season. Even more shocking is the fact that it came against the Seahawks in Week 12. Despite his failure to turn in large rushing totals, he has 12 total touchdowns, including eight on the ground. For that potential, he barely remains in the top 10 this week, even going up against a strong rush defense that has given up just 89.2 yards per game to opposing running backs.
8. Justin Forsett (Baltimore Ravens) vs. Miami Dolphins
19 of 26
Forsett has emerged as the primary back from the committee system that the Ravens used earlier in the season. It seems like this was the right move, as he has had 20-plus carries and 106-plus yards in each of his last three games to go along with two multi-touchdown games in that span. He’s going up against a Miami defense that gave up a shocking 277 rushing yards to the Jets on Monday Night Football, so a fourth straight 100-yard game seems like a strong possibility.
7. Mark Ingram (New Orleans Saints) vs. Carolina Panthers
20 of 26
Ingram had 122 yards rushing on 23 carries last time out in a win over the Steelers. The Panthers have given up 116.8 rushing yards per game this season to go along with 13 touchdowns on the ground. Despite the return of both Pierre Thomas and Khiry Robinson this week, Ingram should see the majority of the carries, having earned them while the other candidates were dealing with injuries.
6. Eddie Lacy (Green Bay Packers) vs. Atlanta Falcons
21 of 26
The Falcons have given up an NFL-worst 15 rushing touchdowns this season. This does not bode well in their matchup against Eddie Lacy, who is coming off a 125-yard performance with a touchdown in Week 12, followed by a 98-yard performance last week. He has also had four total touchdowns over his past three games.
It should be a walk in the park for Lacy and the Packers offense in this one. This is a very safe play. Don't expect 200 yards from Lacy, but he's good for 100 yards and a touchdown in this one.
5. Rashad Jennings (New York Giants) vs. Tennessee Titans
22 of 26
Jennings rushed for 91 yards and two touchdowns last week against the Jaguars, and his life is going to be even easier this week, as he is going up against a Tennessee defense that is the worst in the NFL against the rush. The Titans have given up 141.5 yards on the ground per game to go along with 13 touchdowns. They have not been able to stop anyone on the ground this season, and Jennings should have his way with them in Week 14.
4. DeMarco Murray (Dallas Cowboys) vs. Chicago Bears
23 of 26
Murray is going up against a Bears defense that ranks in the top half of the league in both rushing yards allowed and rushing touchdowns allowed. However, he has proved all season that it really doesn’t matter who he is going up against. He has already compiled 1,427 yards, which leads the NFL. Murray has rushed for more than 100 yards in 10 of his 12 games played this season and remains a top fantasy play every week.
3. Matt Forte (Chicago Bears) vs. Dallas Cowboys
24 of 26
Ranking slightly ahead of Murray is Forte, who is a member of the opposing Bears. The reason? He’s coming off a loss in which he rushed for six yards. Yes, six yards on just five carries.
He had six receptions for 52 yards in that game, and one should expect Forte to see his fair share of touches in this matchup to make up for last week’s debacle. A mad running back is a scary one, especially when he has the skill set of Forte and is going up against a Cowboys defense that has allowed 119.6 rushing yards per game to go along with 12 rushing touchdowns.
2. Le’Veon Bell (Pittsburgh Steelers) vs. Cincinnati Bengals
25 of 26
Coming off a monster game in which he logged 204 rushing yards and a touchdown on 33 carries in Week 12, Bell had 95 rushing yards with a touchdown and 159 receiving yards on eight receptions in Week 13. While the Steelers have to be careful not to wear him out, with a full week to recover he should be a top play this week. He is going up against a Bengals defense that has given up 125.1 rushing yards per game and 13 total rushing touchdowns this season.
1. Arian Foster (Houston Texans) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
26 of 26
When on the field, Foster is as close to a sure thing as you can get. Returning from injury after missing a few weeks, he picked up 79 yards on the ground in Week 13 in addition to 26 yards receiving with a touchdown catch. Going up against the lowly Jaguars this week—who have given up 129.4 rushing yards per game and 11 rushing touchdowns this year—the healthy Foster should run wild and make a difference catching the ball out of the backfield as well. The surest performer of the week, he stands at No. 1 on the list.
Dan Karpuc is Tradesports.com’s Director of Content, TradesportsInsider.com’s Editor and a frequent contributor to The Huffington Post.
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