Week 14 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

It's the holiday season, and many of us have started shopping for the perfect gifts for our friends, significant others and family. Giving those gifts leaves us with a warm and fuzzy feeling; however, it also leaves us with significantly lighter pockets.

What better way to recoup that hard-earned cash than by wagering on a couple of NFL games?

Luckily for us, Week 14 features many favorable spreads for our betting pleasure. However, there are a few tough calls as well. Those toss-up contests are worthy of just a little extra analysis before we put our money on the line.

That said, here's a look at this week's entire slate of games, their corresponding odds and picks against the spread for each, followed by an in-depth look at a couple of the tougher contests to predict.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Dallas at Chicago	DAL -3.5	Cowboys	Chicago doesn't have a defense capable of stopping Dallas' attack.
St. Louis at Washington	STL -2.5	Rams	Colt McCoy upgraded Washington's offense, but the defense is still an issue.
Houston at Jacksonville	HOU -5	Texans	The Jaguars won't get another lucky win off turnovers this week.
NY Giants at Tennessee	Even	Giants	See analysis below.
Tampa Bay at Detroit	DET -10	Lions	The Lions are the superior team in every facet of the game.
Carolina at New Orleans	NO -10	Panthers	New Orleans allows too many points to win by a large margin.
Indianapolis at Cleveland	IND -3.5	Colts	Brian Hoyer's been playing awful of late. The Browns may switch quarterbacks mid-game.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati	CIN -3	Bengals	Andy Dalton didn't play well in Week 13, but neither did Pittsburgh's secondary.
NY Jets at Minnesota	MIN -5.5	Jets	There won't be much offense in this game, so the Jets will keep it close.
Baltimore at Miami	MIA -2.5	Dolphins	Baltimore's porous secondary is concerning against Miami's passing game.
Kansas City at Arizona	Even	Chiefs	See analysis below.
Buffalo at Denver	DEN -10	Bills	Buffalo has a good enough defense to keep this one to a one-score loss.
San Francisco at Oakland	SF -8	Raiders	Neither Bay Area team has been impressive of late. Expect a low-scoring affair.
Seattle at Philadelphia	PHI -1	Seahawks	Seattle is just a little deeper all the way around than Philadelphia.
New England at San Diego	NE -3.5	Patriots	Tom Brady won't have trouble moving the ball against San Diego's defense.
Atlanta at Green Bay	GB -13	Packers	Aaron Rodgers has thrown 20 touchdowns without a pick at home this season.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of December 3.

Breaking Down Toughest Week 14 Calls

New York Giants (even) at Tennessee Titans

The Giants gave the Jacksonville Jaguars a gift in Week 13, losing their 21-0 lead due to Jacksonville scoring a pair of touchdowns on lost fumbles. Meanwhile, the Titans completely imploded, allowing Houston Texans quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick to toss six touchdown passes.

This may be an ugly game.

New York has the upper hand here, though. The Giants are more than capable of moving the ball due to a balanced offense featuring wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. and running back Rashad Jennings. Tennessee is ranked last in the league against the run and struggled mightily in Week 13 against the pass. New York has the tools to take advantage.

The Giants defense didn't play poorly against Jacksonville, limiting the Jaguars to just 258 total yards of offense and sacking rookie quarterback Blake Bortles seven times. Considering the recent play of Titans quarterback Zach Mettenberger—he's thrown an interception in every game he's played this season—New York shouldn't have trouble duplicating that feat.

Mettenberger's status was up in the air following a right shoulder injury suffered against the Texas, but according to Jim Wyatt of The Tennessean, the rookie will be back in action Sunday: 

Expect New York to limit those costly fumbles by running the ball more frequently against a defense that continues to struggle in that department. This will allow the Giants to control the pace of the game and limit Tennessee's scoring opportunities.

Prediction: Giants 27, Titans 20

Kansas City Chiefs (even) at Arizona Cardinals

Both of these teams are coming off tough losses. The Cardinals have relinquished their big lead over the rest of the NFC after dropping two straight, and the Chiefs followed up a terrible loss to the Oakland Raiders with another dropped game against the Denver Broncos.

Well, one of these teams is about to end its skid, and that will be Kansas City.

Unfortunately for Arizona, the injuries continue to pile up. The team lost quarterback Carson Palmer and linebacker John Abraham and continues to deal with nagging injuries to wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and defensive tackle Darnell Dockett. Now, Tyrann Mathieu will miss a couple of games due to a broken thumb, and the statuses of running back Andre Ellington and guard Paul Fanaika are up in the air.

Sports Illustrated pointed out that Ellington's hip pointer may be "severe":

Many of those injuries led to a team-wide meltdown against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13, resulting in a 28-18 loss.

The Chiefs remain relatively healthy and must work on getting the ball into running back Jamaal Charles' hands more frequently. If veteran Steven Jackson was able to rack up 101 yards on an average of 5.6 yards per carry against the Cardinals, the duo of Charles and Knile Davis should be able to post some gaudy numbers.

Arizona was winning games as a very well-rounded team, but sending too many reserve players into action has completely flipped the script for the Cardinals.

Prediction: Chiefs 23, Cardinals 17