Week 13 NFL Picks: Final Vegas Odds and Predictions for Sunday's Slate

Thanksgiving Day saw many bettors come away thankful for the fine performances put on by the Detroit Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks. If you don't happen to fall into that category, there's no need to worry. Sunday's slate is providing some favorable odds that are ripe for confident wagering.

Although, like every week, there are a few contests that appear very tough to call. Generally, it's a good practice to stay away from these games, but there's no greater feeling than getting the best of Las Vegas oddsmakers in these situations.

With that said, let's take a look at the final Vegas odds for Sunday's slate, predict a winner against the spread for each contest and follow that up with some in-depth analysis for a couple of the week's toughest lines.

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
Cleveland at Buffalo	BUF -3	Bills	See analysis below.
New Orleans at Pittsburgh	PIT -4.5	Steelers	Pittsburgh is a great home team, and Drew Brees' struggles on the road are well known.
San Diego at Baltimore	BAL -6	Ravens	The Chargers are struggling, and the Ravens have played very well at home this season.
Carolina at Minnesota	MIN -2.5	Vikings	See analysis below.
NY Giants at Jacksonville	NYG -3	Giants	The Jaguars offense doesn't score enough points to keep up with the Giants.
Washington at Indianapolis	IND -9.5	Colts	Colt McCoy played well earlier this year, but he doesn't have what it takes to keep up with Andrew Luck.
Cincinnati at Tampa Bay	CIN -3	Bengals	Cincinnati's offense is rolling, and Tampa Bay's defense hasn't been able to contain much of anyone.
Tennessee at Houston	HOU -7	Titans	Ryan Fitzpatrick isn't likely to fare well against a solid Titans secondary.
Oakland at St. Louis	STL -6	Raiders	If the Raiders continue to run the ball, these teams will be entrenched in a close, low-scoring affair.
Arizona at Atlanta	Even	Cardinals	Atlanta's inconsistent offense won't be able to put up points on a stout Cardinals defense.
New England at Green Bay	GB -3	Packers	Aaron Rodgers doesn't throw interceptions at home. He beats Tom Brady in a shootout.
Denver at Kansas City	Even	Broncos	The Chiefs don't have a good enough passing attack to keep up with the high-octane Broncos.

All game odds courtesy of Odds Shark and current as of Nov. 29.

Predicting Sunday's Toughest Calls

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-3)

Both of these teams are still in the hunt for a playoff berth. The AFC is chock-full of contenders, so a loss here could have season-altering consequences. However, recent on-field trends from both the Browns and the Bills put the home team in the driver's seat here.

Quarterback Brian Hoyer has struggled in his last two outings. His accuracy has been terrible, and he's lost the ability to take care of the football. Here's a look at how he fared against the Houston Texans and Atlanta Falcons—two teams with unspectacular secondaries:

Opponent	CMP%	YDS	TD	INT	RAT
Texans	40.0	330	1	1	61.3
Falcons	57.5	322	0	3	52.3

Those numbers don't bode well for the quarterback against Buffalo's fifth-ranked pass defense. Making matters worse for Hoyer, he'll be without one of the team's top weapons yet again, via the NFL:

Even with wide receiver Josh Gordon back in action, Hoyer's inconsistency will plague the Browns on the road.

On the flip side, Buffalo's well-rounded defense is accompanied by an offense that's been surprisingly efficient of late. The return of Fred Jackson and the emergence of Anthony Dixon have created a solid one-two punch out of the team's backfield, and that duo should flourish against Cleveland's 29th-ranked run defense.

With Buffalo's ground game rolling along, quarterback Kyle Orton has remained steady, completing short, high-percentage passes to move his team down the field and control the time of possession.

Prediction: Bills 26, Browns 20

Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Carolina's inability to move the ball on offense is the biggest reason why a trip to Minnesota won't end well for Cam Newton and company. Over the team's last five games (all losses), the Panthers haven't scored more than 21 points. That's not a good omen against a solid Vikings defense.

Minnesota has been very good in recent games, holding Jay Cutler's Chicago Bears to 21 points and Aaron Rodgers' Green Bay Packers to 24 points. Considering Newton's ongoing struggles, there's no reason to believe Carolina will fare any better.

So, all the Vikings need to do is get some points on the board. This offense has been erratic this season, and a change in the backfield will highlight Sunday's squad, via Matt Vensel of Minneapolis' Star Tribune:

Luckily, the team still has some talent at the running back position to complement rookie quarterback Teddy Bridgewater. The Louisville product has played well recently, putting up decent numbers against the shaky secondaries of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Washington Redskins. He should have similar success against Carolina's 26th-ranked unit.

Don't expect many points scored in this contest, as a Minnesota defense that has accumulated 31 sacks this season should keep Newton under pressure and limit the Panthers' opportunities to score.

Prediction: Vikings 20, Panthers 16